Supply Shock

This week, Mark & Mike discuss everything happening in the crypto markets. As Bitcoin holds steady bouncing around $20,000, should investors expect "crypto spring", or not? Mark shares his insights into the Metcalfe law model that Tim Peterson came on the show in February to discuss.Mark & Mike also discuss Sam Bankman-Fried's proposed DeFi regulation, their broader outlook on the economy & much more. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show:Possible Digital Asset Industry Standards: https://www.ftxpolicy.com/posts/possible-digital-asset-industry-standards--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Eric Basmajian Founder of EPB Macro Research joins the show for an update on his "Four Stages of An Economic Slowdown" episode of On The Margin released in April of 2022.Since Eric made that call in April, things have accelerated, so we invited Eric back to the show for a discussion on how the most important economic signals are pointing to a further slowdown throughout 2022 and into 2023. What does the record tightening in monetary policy mean for the most interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy such as housing? How will that in turn effect consumption and spending? And will all of these factors combined lead to a recession into the new year? To find out, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Eric: https://twitter.com/EPBResearchFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.--Referenced In The Show:The Four Stages of An Economic Slowdown: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6dwcJVX8vUm5gY0bwTvdXE?si=7b81b2b4506d4ce9--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:11) The Four Stages of An Economic Slowdown(14:53) Preparing For A Revision In Earnings(19:07) Preparing For A Hard Landing(29:22) Being Surprised By The Fed's Rate Hikes(33:43) Will The Fed Achieve It's Goal? Or Will Something Break?(38:53) Circle Ad(40:13) Eric's Secular Outlook On The Economy(44:05) The Biggest Misconceptions About Inflation: Wage Price Spiral--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The CPI print just came out, and prices are hot. This week's roundup explores the implications of high inflation, what it means for company earnings and what to expect next.Has the Fed lost control? Is this the fault of current or prior regimes? Where are rates headed? Is QE coming back? Tune in to find out!--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:36) Update, Bitcoin Is Still A Volatile Asset(09:46) CPI Print Hot Hot Hot(17:42) Entitlement & Earnings Trouble(23:17) More Rate Hikes?(30:54 The Fed’s Failure(52:47) Restarting QE(59:52) Exporting Inflation, Will It Continue?--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show:"The Committee To Save The World"http://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19990215,00.htmlBilderberg Group's Connection To Everything In The Worldhttps://bit.ly/3CYEoxPRubicon (book)https://amzn.to/3fX8uIP--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

As Mike is away on holiday, Blockworks' very own Jack Farley, host of Forward Guidance, steps in for a discussion on the top stories of the week.On the back of a labor market report, Jack and Mark break down what this means for markets, the outlook for inflation, Ray Dalio's shift in sentiment from his infamous statement "cash is trash" and finally we discuss the turmoil in U.K gilt markets, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:14) The Labor Market Is... Strong?!(10:24) When Will Inflation Go Down?(21:55) Is Cash "Trash"?(30:13) Is The Stock Market Still Overvalued?(33:49) China(38:10) Importance of Doubling Down on Your Winners(41:28) The Bank of England's Rescue of the U.K. Gilt Market--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Julian Brigden Co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners for a discussion on the hyper-financialization of the U.S economy, and how that trend may now be in reverse.Looking back at historic periods of both monetary and fiscal policy being enacted together, Julian was able to identify the trend of inflation at the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021. Since positioning for the equity market correction towards the back end of 2021, Julian shares his thoughts on the current state of markets. Are equity markets oversold, or does this bear market have further to go? What cracks are starting to form in the housing market? Is this the end of hyper-financialization and is de-globalization at a tipping point? To find out, you'll have to tune in!--Follow JulianFollow MikeFollow On The MarginFollow BlockworksGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter--Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.--Referenced In The Show:How Bad Will the German Recession Be?--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:05) A Shift In Inflation(13:09) CEO Compensation(20:23) The Housing Market(33:05) Circle Ad(34:25) Powell Is Channeling His Inner Volcker(39:54) What Is Happening In Europe?(46:27) We Are At A Tipping Point--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Recorded on Monday 26th: Before the BoE's Gilt announcementOn today's episode of "On the Margin", Mike McGlone Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg joins the the show for a wide ranging discussion. As the U.S Dollar continues rising, markets are beginning to crack. Is there any end in sight for economies around the world?We also discuss what is happening in energy, commodity and crypto markets. How will oil perform ahead of mid term elections in the U.S? Is gold set for a move higher? And have crypto markets felt enough pain or is more to come? To find out, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Mike McGloneFollow Mike IppolitoFollow On The MarginFollow BlockworksGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter--Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:33) What Is Happening With The British Pound?(14:32) Gasoline & Biden's Approval Rating(17:41) How Energy Is Effecting Global Currencies(20:14) Circle Ad(21:33) The U.S Dollar Wrecking Ball(31:02) Gold(36:32) Which Countries Are Positioned To Outperform?(42:05) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Doomberg, everyones favorite green chicken, joins the the show for an update on the European energy crisis.After making bold claims throughout 2021 on the global energy situation, and particularly in Europe, Doomberg provides an update on the state of the European energy crisis. How severe will the impact of high energy prices be for Europe ahead of winter, particularly global manufacturing hubs such as Germany? Finally, Doomberg discusses the effect of energy on currencies around the world, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Doomberg: https://twitter.com/DoombergTFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:57) Doomberg's Core Energy Thesis(07:01) The Energy Situation In Europe(10:15) The Law of Antilogic(13:55) Energy Price Controls(17:18) How Energy Is Effecting Currencies(19:41) The Dollar Wrecking Ball(22:52) Circle Ad(24:13) Powell Will Hike Until Something Breaks(27:52) The BoJ Will Not Be Bullied(30:44) What Is Happening In China?(35:58) Entering A Period of Stagflation--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

As central banks around the world further increased interest rates, everyone looked to the most important central bank in markets, and that's the Fed. Powell raised by an expected 75bp on Wednesday, signalling "it will be enough". Markets were confused after the initial announcement, but selling increased hours after the announcement, not holding up until Friday's session. Are markets bracing for a hard landing? To find out, you'll just have to tune in!--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Jack Farley, friend of the show and Host of another Blockworks podcast “Forward Guidance”, joins the show for a discussion on the central banking super bowl.As over 20 central banks around the world decide their key policy rates this week, including the Fed, BoE & SNB, we invited Jack to the show to share his thoughts on what this means for equities, bonds & most importantly inflation. In Jack’s mind, there was no doubt the Fed was “behind the curve”, but are they also “looking in the rear view mirror?” as they aim to slay the inflation dragon? To find out, you’ll just have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.--Referenced In The Show:Powell Won't Stop "Until The Job Is Done" | Danielle DiMartino Booth: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1JZdcUsIivVSuIuF7q4Q7v?si=196c1d9a9b2f496b The Bear Market Has Only Just Begun | Ted Oakley: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2jx2I7cwDREUXAWDfdWUtX?si=0a00efc3ac3a48b5 Is a Global Recession Imminent? https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/global-recession--(00:00) Introduction(00:43) The Superbowl of Central Banking(02:25) Slowing Growth & Soaring Inflation(03:40) Are We Heading For A Soft Landing?(11:25) Is The Fed Looking In The Rear View Mirror?(16:15) Is Inflation a Psychological or a Monetary Phenomenon?(18:15) Signs of Liquidity Stress In The Treasury Market(23:50) IMF: Is a Global Recession Imminent?(24:50) Circle Ad(26:10) Has Inflation Peaked?(35:40) Stanley Druckenmiller Warns There Is A “High Probability” The Stock Market Will Be “Flat” For A Decade(37:32) What To Expect Ahead of FOMC?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

After uniting at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit, Mike & Mark are back to reflect on the conference and dive into the top stories of the week.Markets had their biggest one day sell-off in almost 2 years due to a higher than expected inflation print, FedEX CEO Raj Subramaniam warns of a "worldwide recession" and the Ethereum merge is successfully deployed. Luckily Mike & Mark are on hand to break it all down, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.