Supply Shock

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Danielle DiMartino Booth CEO & Chief Strategist of Quill Intelligence joins the show for a discussion on the Fed and the policy decisions they face throughout 2022 & into 2023.Last time Danielle joined the show, it was January, at the beginning of the year, as it had become clear the Fed stayed too loose, for too long. In that conversation, we discussed what Fed rate hikes would mean for the economy, markets, inflation & housing. Now, nine months later, it felt right to invite Danielle back to the show to reflect on the past year from a former Fed insider, and look forward for the rest of the year as Powell tries to reiterate his hawkish stance to the markets. Will they finally get the message? Is this the end of the Fed put? To find out, you'll have to tune in!--Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets--Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.--(00:00) Introduction(02:56) The "Fed Put"(05:56) Jerome Powell's Paul Volcker Moment(07:31) What To Expect Ahead of the Next FOMC Meeting(09:22) Liz Truss's Energy Bailout Plan(11:32) Which Leading Indicators Should You Follow?(14:47) Housing IS The Business Cycle(20:30) Quiet Quitting & Work From Home(25:49) Circle Ad(27:09) What Is Happening in the Labor Market?(34:20) Looking Forward, What To Expect Throughout 2022?(39:43) The Need For A Modern Day G.I. Bill--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss one of the biggest news stories in crypto markets as investors await one of the most anticipated events in years, the Ethereum merge.As many grapple with the bull & bear case for the Eth merge, Mark & Mike discuss how they see the merge playing out from their perspective. Could this be a classic case of Buy the Rumor, Sell the News? To find out, you'll have to tune in!--Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off ticketsGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Dario Perkins MD of global macro at TS Lombard joins the show for a discussion on the new macro supercycle.As de-globilization increasingly becomes one of the key forces driving markets, Dario walks through one of his recent pieces titled "The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks". Drawing historical comparisons between today's economy with both the 1940's & 1970's, Dario describes the setup we now have for a new macro regime, and how central banks are viewing this current environment. This episode is full of insights you can't afford to miss to help navigate this new macro regime, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets--Follow Dario Perkins: https://twitter.com/darioperkinsFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show: Dario Perkins: Watch Out for Another 20% Drop in Equities: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7GSVdwJVQIje5mv1wuUefw?si=638b3f549e32414e Capital Wars, Liquidity & The Rise of China | Michael Howell: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5wNLkFpnxSHjnlcgPf4siP?si=a44b7638fcc142eaThe Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks: https://blogs.tslombard.com/the-nightmare-scenario-for-central-banks Euro, Stocks Tumble as Russia Pulls Rug on Gas Supplies: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-04/intensifying-energy-shock-to-weigh-on-euro-test-ecb-on-rates?srnd=premium-europe--(00:00) Introduction(00:20) The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks(03:54) Comparisons Between The 1940's & 1970's(07:52) The New Macro Supercycle(13:32) Fake Recession, Fake Business Cycle(19:52) Inflation, Europe & Natural Gas(22:36) Big Tech/FAANG: A Return To Value?(26:22) The Cost of Living Crisis(29:53) Avoiding A Euro Crisis 2.0(33:08) The Role of Central Banks(41:42) Embracing Higher Volatility--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Mark returns on this episode of the round up, and after briefly discussing the matter with Jack last week, I decided to check in with Mark on his thoughts on the US Bond Market. We transition then into talking about the housing market, the soaring fixed mortgage rates, and the lag in home prices that follows. Next I get Mark's thoughts on the recent bear rally, before closing out our round up with mixed feelings on the recent decision about student debt forgiveness.--Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off ticketsGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Michael Howell CEO of Crossborder Capital joins the show for a discussion on the number one force driving markets, liquidity.Discussing Michael's book titled "Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity", Howell walks through the role of global liquidity, increasing debt and volatility on today's financial system. Have these three factors made our financial system more susceptible to central bank intervention and financial crises? Tune in to hear this discussion & much more!--Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets--Follow Michael Howell https://twitter.com/crossbordercapFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show:WTO successfully concludes negotiations on China's entry https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres01_e/pr243_e.htmTranscript: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the next steps for Russia sanctions and ‘friend-shoring’ supply chains https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/news/transcripts/transcript-us-treasury-secretary-janet-yellen-on-the-next-steps-for-russia-sanctions-and-friend-shoring-supply-chains/  Suez Crisis https://www.history.com/topics/cold-war/suez-crisis Russian gas in Germany: A complicated 50-year relationship https://www.dw.com/en/russian-gas-in-germany-a-complicated-50-year-relationship/a-61057166--(00:00) Introduction(00:25) The Rise of Global Liquidity(06:25) China Entering The WTO(12:28) How A Lack of Liquidity Leads To Financial Crises(19:20) Is Europe The Canary In The Coal Mine?(30:06) Bretton Woods, World Trade & The Role of The U.S Dollar(40:00) Capital Wars Between The U.S & China(44:53) Current Market Liquidity & Outlook--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Blockworks just released a new podcast called Bell Curve! We're dropping the pilot episode here as we think you might want to add this podcast to the lineup.Season one of Bell Curve revolves around our DeFi credit boom thesis. Simply put, CeFi's implosion will create a DeFi credit boom that will bring new users and fixed-rate lending markets to DeFi.What products will be created? Who will be the users of these products? Where will capital flow first?These are a few of the questions we'll explore as we put our thesis to the test. Join Jason and Mike in this season one pilot episode, where we provide context for our thesis and explain what you should expect in the upcoming episodes.If you consider yourself a curious degen, builder or investor: this show is for you.- -Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitzFollow Bell Curve: https://twitter.com/thebellcurvepodSubscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3R1D1D9Subscribe on Apple: https://apple.co/3pQTfmDSubscribe on Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3cpKZXH- -Disclaimer: Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mike, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

This week we're joined by Forward Guidance's Jack Farley! We begin by discussing our takes on the recent announcement concerning student loan forgiveness, before pivoting to what we predict will be heard at the Jackson Hole meeting.After that we move into a discussion about energy prices in Europe, with Germany as a focal point. Jack then speaks on the state of China's real estate market. Finally we round out the episode with talks of the bad start to bonds this year and what the means for the rest of the year to come.--Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off ticketsGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Jack Farley: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Luke Gromen Founder & President of Forest for the Trees (FFTT) joins the show for a discussion on the U.S Dollar's role in the global economy.After spending the past number of years outlining his thesis and the importance energy plays in being the global reserve currency issuer, now was the perfect time to get Luke back on the show to break down some of the tectonic geopolitical changes that have occurred throughout 2022.  From energy shortages in Europe to Russian FX sanctions and now rising tensions in Taiwan, the U.S Dollar sits at the very centre of this discussion. This is an episode you can't afford to miss and will find yourself watching over and over again as we attempt to understand the geopolitical & macro landscape.--Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets--Follow Luke Gromen: https://twitter.com/LukeGromenFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show:Twilight in the Desert: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twilight_in_the_Desert Assessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Industrial Base and Supply Chain Resiliency of the United States: https://bit.ly/3QEY91ICalifornia Turns To China For New Bay Bridge: https://www.npr.org/2011/09/16/140515737/california-turns-to-china-for-new-bay-bridge?t=1661252480276 Don’t forget the golden rule: whoever has the gold makes the rules: https://reaction.life/dont-forget-the-golden-rule-whoever-has-the-gold-makes-the-rules/The Quiet Coup: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/05/the-quiet-coup/307364/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:38) The Post Bretton Woods System(11:09) Peak Cheap Energy(20:55) The U.S. Industrial Manufacturing Base, The End of Globalization?(26:09) The Closing of Russia's FX Reserves(33:30) The Energy Crisis In Europe(34:46) Gold & Bitcoin: "The Last Functioning Fire Alarm"(40:00) The U.S. Entitlements & Balance Sheet(46:38) Rising Inequality(51:14) The Quiet Coup: Privatizing The Gains & Socializing The Losses(57:14) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this week's episode, Mark and I discuss the repercussions of the Fed’s attempt to contrive certainty in financial markets.We start the discussion by looking at the US’ long-term GDP growth. The chart looks great, but is the Fed’s market manipulation setting us up for a surprise? Inflation and record-high debt are just two symptoms of the Fed’s attempt to create certainty in entropic markets. We then talk about this week’s FOMC minutes and reflect on current market conditions. Why are certain speculative assets pumping when most equities are tanking? We are in a thinly traded market, and more volatility is on the horizon.Finally, we discuss how a 20yr old just made $100M on Bed Bath & Beyond. Tune in for these stories and more!-- Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ --Referenced In The Show:20-Year-Old Student Acquires 6% Of Bed Bath & Beyond, Makes $110 Million In 3 Weeks: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sureal-story-20-year-old-student-acquires-6-bed-bath-beyond-makes-110-million-3-weeks-- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Ben Hunt Author of Epsilon Theory and Mike Green Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management join the show for a discussion around one of Ben's recent articles "Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World".Ben and Mike compare household net worth and GDP which substantially diverged post 1990 when Alan Greenspan was Federal Reserve Chairman. Post Greenspan saw Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell take the role of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Ben highlights that "emergency government action always becomes permanent government policy". Just how has the era of QE influenced inflation, the U.S economy & wealth inequality. To find out, you'll have to tune in!--Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mike Green: https://twitter.com/profplum99Follow Ben Hunt: https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheoryFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show:Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World: https://www.epsilontheory.com/hollow-men-hollow-markets-hollow-world-2/ The Three-Body Problem: https://www.epsilontheory.com/three-body-problem/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:38) Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World(14:57) Central Bank Hubris(22:38) Searching For Simple Solutions To Complex Issues(31:38) Gresham's Law Of Information(45:47) The End Of A Regime--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.