Supply Shock

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Ben Hunt Author of Epsilon Theory and Mike Green Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management join the show for a discussion around one of Ben's recent articles "Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World".Ben and Mike compare household net worth and GDP which substantially diverged post 1990 when Alan Greenspan was Federal Reserve Chairman. Post Greenspan saw Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell take the role of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Ben highlights that "emergency government action always becomes permanent government policy". Just how has the era of QE influenced inflation, the U.S economy & wealth inequality. To find out, you'll have to tune in!--Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mike Green: https://twitter.com/profplum99Follow Ben Hunt: https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheoryFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show:Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World: https://www.epsilontheory.com/hollow-men-hollow-markets-hollow-world-2/ The Three-Body Problem: https://www.epsilontheory.com/three-body-problem/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:38) Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World(14:57) Central Bank Hubris(22:38) Searching For Simple Solutions To Complex Issues(31:38) Gresham's Law Of Information(45:47) The End Of A Regime--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this week's episode, Mark and I cover this week's CPI print, the state of macro, Coinbase’s earnings miss, and a historical US ban on an Ethereum privacy protocol.We start with a discussion on the lower-than-expected CPI print, deglobalization and ask if the FED still thinks they can provide a soft landing. We then dive into Coinbase’s Q2 earnings and $1B reported loss. Can Coinbase establish a sustainable business model? The numbers don’t look great, but there’s reason to believe they can turn the ship around.Finally, we discuss the US Treasury's Tornado Cash ban and the secondary effects across DeFi. Tune in for these stories and more!-- Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ ---- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Jordi Alexander CIO of Selini Capital joins the show to discuss how inflation is driving demand for UBI.We begin discussing Jordi's outlook for the rest of 2022 with a major focus on the U.S Dollar and how the rising dollar could lead to liquidity problems. Drawing parallels to 2020, when the Fed extended U.S Dollar swap lines all around the world, Jordi explains how this dynamic could further exacerbate the publics demand for UBI. We then close the discussion looking at the cycles of inflation, crypto markets and Jordi's outlook for markets through the rest of the year, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Jordi Alexander: https://twitter.com/gametheorizingFollow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show: Federal Reserve announces bilateral swap lines: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200319b.htm Main Street Lending Program: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/mainstreetlending.htm - -(00:00) Introduction(00:40) Jordi's Framework For 2022(02:57) The U.S. Dollar(09:56) Wealth Distribution & Social Cohesion(12:20) Cycles of Inflation(27:52) The Bull & Bear Case for Bitcoin(36:20) Crypto Markets (42:00) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this week's episode, Mark and I are joined by Zaheer Ebitkar of Ledger Prime to cover a very important question: is the crypto bottom in?Zaheer walked us through one of the most important drivers of liquidity and price action in crypto markets today: stablecoins.We discussed the different type of stables that exist in the market today, how they impact liquidity conditions, and how different stablecoin models are likely to be regulated.Finally we asked Zaheer whether or not the bottom was officially in, but for that you'll have to tune into the show ;)We also covered Michael Saylor's change in role at Microstrategy, Errol Musk's comments on his son Elon, Coinbase's partnership with Blackrock, and Meta's NFT roll out.--Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off ticketsGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ ----Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Zaheer Ebtikar: https://twitter.com/SplitCapitalFollow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_- -Referenced in the show:Bitcoinisdead.orgThe Crypto Dollar Surge and the American Opportunity - Nic Carter:https://tinyurl.com/2p92hydn--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Amy Wu of FTX Ventures joins the show for a discussion on the venture capital industry both in traditional markets and crypto.After an explosion in VC funding throughout 2021, how have current market conditions effected private markets throughout 2022? As investors reconsider the valuations they are willing to pay compared to 2021, just how has this influenced funding in crypto? To find out, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Amy Wu: https://twitter.com/amytongwuFollow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/- -(00:00) Introduction(01:38) VC Landscape In 2022(10:08) The Differences Between VC Investing In Web2 vs Web3(13:24) Big Trends For the Future(22:31) What Is Happening In Gaming?(34:06) NFTs(41:10) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this week's episode, we discuss the Fed's attempt to crush all consumer demand. Mark believes we've just entered crypto spring, but that enthusiasm takes a turn as we discuss the Fed.With two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, we can officially (or now unofficially) say we are in a recession. I got Mark's take on the Fed's actions, expected fallout and future CPI prints.Next, we discuss the US' "friend-shoring" efforts, failed sanctions and other policy mishaps. Finally, we added a new "positivity segment" that includes our thoughts on aliens and human evolution - you'll have to tune in to find out more!-- Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MARGIN250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ ---- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_- -Referenced in the show:Janet Yellen "friend-shoring" https://tinyurl.com/2aprdz3p--Timestamps(00:00) Introduction(00:32) Mark confirms crypto spring is here(05:26) Blockworks' DAS 2022 conference(09:53) The Fed is crushing growth(18:52) Friend-shoring: ineffective sanctions and a multi-polar world(22:53) Is housing the next shoe to drop?(26:10) Changing the definition of a recession(28:42) Listen to the bond market(32:40) Fighting inflation & oil price manipulation(42:06) Money is a claim on time(49:27) Alexander Hamilton, maybe we need Maxis(51:26) Sinister Saturday special(54:37) Aliens, Webb telescope and human evolution--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Lawrence Lepard and Brent Johnson join Mike to discuss the dark side of a strong US dollar. We start with an overview of the US Dollar's role as the global reserve currency and how the dollar system is causing many of the problems we have today. Can the US dollar maintain its reserve status or are things falling apart?Then, Lawrence and Brent explain how a strong US dollar is causing weakness throughout the global economy - abroad and at home. Brent shares his short to medium-term outlook based on his Milkshake Theory, and Lawrence counters with his position that the dollar will unravel at an accelerated pace.We close with a discussion on how the Fed will act next. You don't want to miss this one!--Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code MARGIN250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!)--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/-- Follow Lawrence: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepardFollow Brent: https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFundFollow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--(00:00) Introduction(00:47) The Dollar's Role As The World's Reserve Currency(05:03) The Dangerous Effects of a Rising Dollar(11:58) The Dollar is a Geopolitical Tool(22:46) The Price the US Pays For a Rising Dollar(27:32) The Dollars' Fate(32:20) Why Relative Currency Value Matters(36:56) Opposing the US Empire(44:51) How Will the Fed Get Out Of This Mess?(48:23) Will the Dollar Implode Slowly Or Suddenly?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this week's episode, we discuss everyone's favorite subject: the bear market. I got Mark's take on the current bear, how it compares to previous bear markets in crypto, and what we should expect over the coming year. Next, we took a look at who has been selling Bitcoin in May and June. The largest (forced) seller was the Luna Foundation Guard, closely followed by Elon Musk's Tesla. We spent some time discussing Tesla's sale and why Elon may have decided to do that today.Next, we explain why things feel so divided today. Mark and I gave our take on wealth equality, the media, and hidden sets of incentives around ESG.Finally, we added a new "positivity segment - you'll have to tune in to find out more! Also, if anyone wants to watch my grandpa's interview, here's the link.--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/-- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--(00:00) Introduction(00:40) Is the worst of the crypto bear behind us?(16:54) The Reason Tesla Liquidated Their BTC(22:25) The Greatest Polarization in History (34:48) The One Metric We Should All Optimize--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Anonymous analyst Mr Blonde joins the show for a discussion on the cyclical forces driving markets in 2022.We discuss the increasing recession signals and how they will effect earnings for the second half of 2022. With a rising dollar, 9.1% inflation, an increasingly hawkish Fed and the end of "peak liquidity", just how will all these forces effect equity markets throughout 2022? To find out, you'll have to tune!--Follow Mr. Blonde: https://twitter.com/MrBlonde_macroFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show:Housing IS the Business Cycle: https://www.nber.org/papers/w13428 The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks: https://blogs.tslombard.com/the-nightmare-scenario-for-central-banks?hss_channel=tw-510529116Current State of the Housing Market: https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/current-state-of-the-housing-market-3f2--Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:45) Rising Risk Of Recession(02:41) Heading For An Earnings Recession(04:09) We Entered 2022 With Peak Liquidity, Peak Valuations & Peak Earnings, What Next?(09:45) How Energy Has Impacted Earnings(18:08) What Is Happening In Credit?(22:52) The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks(31:01) Housing IS The Business Cycle(37:19) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this week's episode, Mark and I kick things off discussing the Bitcoin market. Could crypto winter be passing and signs of crypto spring be starting to emerge? We then move on to discuss the historic value of equities going all he way back to 1871 vs now in 2022. With still elevated P/E's, is there more pain to come for equities despite rising rates? We draw parallels between the 2001 tech bubble which also saw high energy prices, a rising dollar and rising yields.Finally, we break down the recent 9.1% CPI print and if we could be in for a period of secular inflation. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.