Supply Shock

Blockworks just released a new podcast called Bell Curve! We're dropping the pilot episode here as we think you might want to add this podcast to the lineup.Season one of Bell Curve revolves around our DeFi credit boom thesis. Simply put, CeFi's implosion will create a DeFi credit boom that will bring new users and fixed-rate lending markets to DeFi.What products will be created? Who will be the users of these products? Where will capital flow first?These are a few of the questions we'll explore as we put our thesis to the test. Join Jason and Mike in this season one pilot episode, where we provide context for our thesis and explain what you should expect in the upcoming episodes.If you consider yourself a curious degen, builder or investor: this show is for you.- -Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitzFollow Bell Curve: https://twitter.com/thebellcurvepodSubscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3R1D1D9Subscribe on Apple: https://apple.co/3pQTfmDSubscribe on Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3cpKZXH- -Disclaimer: Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mike, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

This week we're joined by Forward Guidance's Jack Farley! We begin by discussing our takes on the recent announcement concerning student loan forgiveness, before pivoting to what we predict will be heard at the Jackson Hole meeting.After that we move into a discussion about energy prices in Europe, with Germany as a focal point. Jack then speaks on the state of China's real estate market. Finally we round out the episode with talks of the bad start to bonds this year and what the means for the rest of the year to come.--Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off ticketsGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Jack Farley: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Luke Gromen Founder & President of Forest for the Trees (FFTT) joins the show for a discussion on the U.S Dollar's role in the global economy.After spending the past number of years outlining his thesis and the importance energy plays in being the global reserve currency issuer, now was the perfect time to get Luke back on the show to break down some of the tectonic geopolitical changes that have occurred throughout 2022.  From energy shortages in Europe to Russian FX sanctions and now rising tensions in Taiwan, the U.S Dollar sits at the very centre of this discussion. This is an episode you can't afford to miss and will find yourself watching over and over again as we attempt to understand the geopolitical & macro landscape.--Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets--Follow Luke Gromen: https://twitter.com/LukeGromenFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show:Twilight in the Desert: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twilight_in_the_Desert Assessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Industrial Base and Supply Chain Resiliency of the United States: https://bit.ly/3QEY91ICalifornia Turns To China For New Bay Bridge: https://www.npr.org/2011/09/16/140515737/california-turns-to-china-for-new-bay-bridge?t=1661252480276 Don’t forget the golden rule: whoever has the gold makes the rules: https://reaction.life/dont-forget-the-golden-rule-whoever-has-the-gold-makes-the-rules/The Quiet Coup: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/05/the-quiet-coup/307364/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:38) The Post Bretton Woods System(11:09) Peak Cheap Energy(20:55) The U.S. Industrial Manufacturing Base, The End of Globalization?(26:09) The Closing of Russia's FX Reserves(33:30) The Energy Crisis In Europe(34:46) Gold & Bitcoin: "The Last Functioning Fire Alarm"(40:00) The U.S. Entitlements & Balance Sheet(46:38) Rising Inequality(51:14) The Quiet Coup: Privatizing The Gains & Socializing The Losses(57:14) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this week's episode, Mark and I discuss the repercussions of the Fed’s attempt to contrive certainty in financial markets.We start the discussion by looking at the US’ long-term GDP growth. The chart looks great, but is the Fed’s market manipulation setting us up for a surprise? Inflation and record-high debt are just two symptoms of the Fed’s attempt to create certainty in entropic markets. We then talk about this week’s FOMC minutes and reflect on current market conditions. Why are certain speculative assets pumping when most equities are tanking? We are in a thinly traded market, and more volatility is on the horizon.Finally, we discuss how a 20yr old just made $100M on Bed Bath & Beyond. Tune in for these stories and more!-- Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ --Referenced In The Show:20-Year-Old Student Acquires 6% Of Bed Bath & Beyond, Makes $110 Million In 3 Weeks: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sureal-story-20-year-old-student-acquires-6-bed-bath-beyond-makes-110-million-3-weeks-- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Ben Hunt Author of Epsilon Theory and Mike Green Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management join the show for a discussion around one of Ben's recent articles "Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World".Ben and Mike compare household net worth and GDP which substantially diverged post 1990 when Alan Greenspan was Federal Reserve Chairman. Post Greenspan saw Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell take the role of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Ben highlights that "emergency government action always becomes permanent government policy". Just how has the era of QE influenced inflation, the U.S economy & wealth inequality. To find out, you'll have to tune in!--Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mike Green: https://twitter.com/profplum99Follow Ben Hunt: https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheoryFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show:Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World: https://www.epsilontheory.com/hollow-men-hollow-markets-hollow-world-2/ The Three-Body Problem: https://www.epsilontheory.com/three-body-problem/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:38) Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World(14:57) Central Bank Hubris(22:38) Searching For Simple Solutions To Complex Issues(31:38) Gresham's Law Of Information(45:47) The End Of A Regime--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this week's episode, Mark and I cover this week's CPI print, the state of macro, Coinbase’s earnings miss, and a historical US ban on an Ethereum privacy protocol.We start with a discussion on the lower-than-expected CPI print, deglobalization and ask if the FED still thinks they can provide a soft landing. We then dive into Coinbase’s Q2 earnings and $1B reported loss. Can Coinbase establish a sustainable business model? The numbers don’t look great, but there’s reason to believe they can turn the ship around.Finally, we discuss the US Treasury's Tornado Cash ban and the secondary effects across DeFi. Tune in for these stories and more!-- Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ ---- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Jordi Alexander CIO of Selini Capital joins the show to discuss how inflation is driving demand for UBI.We begin discussing Jordi's outlook for the rest of 2022 with a major focus on the U.S Dollar and how the rising dollar could lead to liquidity problems. Drawing parallels to 2020, when the Fed extended U.S Dollar swap lines all around the world, Jordi explains how this dynamic could further exacerbate the publics demand for UBI. We then close the discussion looking at the cycles of inflation, crypto markets and Jordi's outlook for markets through the rest of the year, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Jordi Alexander: https://twitter.com/gametheorizingFollow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show: Federal Reserve announces bilateral swap lines: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200319b.htm Main Street Lending Program: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/mainstreetlending.htm - -(00:00) Introduction(00:40) Jordi's Framework For 2022(02:57) The U.S. Dollar(09:56) Wealth Distribution & Social Cohesion(12:20) Cycles of Inflation(27:52) The Bull & Bear Case for Bitcoin(36:20) Crypto Markets (42:00) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this week's episode, Mark and I are joined by Zaheer Ebitkar of Ledger Prime to cover a very important question: is the crypto bottom in?Zaheer walked us through one of the most important drivers of liquidity and price action in crypto markets today: stablecoins.We discussed the different type of stables that exist in the market today, how they impact liquidity conditions, and how different stablecoin models are likely to be regulated.Finally we asked Zaheer whether or not the bottom was officially in, but for that you'll have to tune into the show ;)We also covered Michael Saylor's change in role at Microstrategy, Errol Musk's comments on his son Elon, Coinbase's partnership with Blackrock, and Meta's NFT roll out.--Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off ticketsGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ ----Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Zaheer Ebtikar: https://twitter.com/SplitCapitalFollow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_- -Referenced in the show:Bitcoinisdead.orgThe Crypto Dollar Surge and the American Opportunity - Nic Carter:https://tinyurl.com/2p92hydn--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Amy Wu of FTX Ventures joins the show for a discussion on the venture capital industry both in traditional markets and crypto.After an explosion in VC funding throughout 2021, how have current market conditions effected private markets throughout 2022? As investors reconsider the valuations they are willing to pay compared to 2021, just how has this influenced funding in crypto? To find out, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Amy Wu: https://twitter.com/amytongwuFollow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/- -(00:00) Introduction(01:38) VC Landscape In 2022(10:08) The Differences Between VC Investing In Web2 vs Web3(13:24) Big Trends For the Future(22:31) What Is Happening In Gaming?(34:06) NFTs(41:10) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this week's episode, we discuss the Fed's attempt to crush all consumer demand. Mark believes we've just entered crypto spring, but that enthusiasm takes a turn as we discuss the Fed.With two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, we can officially (or now unofficially) say we are in a recession. I got Mark's take on the Fed's actions, expected fallout and future CPI prints.Next, we discuss the US' "friend-shoring" efforts, failed sanctions and other policy mishaps. Finally, we added a new "positivity segment" that includes our thoughts on aliens and human evolution - you'll have to tune in to find out more!-- Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MARGIN250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ ---- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_- -Referenced in the show:Janet Yellen "friend-shoring" https://tinyurl.com/2aprdz3p--Timestamps(00:00) Introduction(00:32) Mark confirms crypto spring is here(05:26) Blockworks' DAS 2022 conference(09:53) The Fed is crushing growth(18:52) Friend-shoring: ineffective sanctions and a multi-polar world(22:53) Is housing the next shoe to drop?(26:10) Changing the definition of a recession(28:42) Listen to the bond market(32:40) Fighting inflation & oil price manipulation(42:06) Money is a claim on time(49:27) Alexander Hamilton, maybe we need Maxis(51:26) Sinister Saturday special(54:37) Aliens, Webb telescope and human evolution--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.