Supply Shock

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy joins the show. Lyn begins by explaining the energy shock she spotted in 2021 walking through her most recent piece "Energy: The Area Under the Curve".Lyn then shares her outlook on the U.S Dollar wrecking ball as the DXY breaches 20 year highs trading over 108. How will a rising U.S Dollar effect the chances of a recession, stress in credit markets and more importantly U.S treasury market liquidity? Could this be "checkmate" for the Fed? To find out, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Lyn: https://twitter.com/LynAldenContactFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show:Energy: The Area Under the Curve: https://www.lynalden.com/the-area-under-the-curve/Sohn 2022 | John Collison in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7sWLIybWnQ--Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks--Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:51) Energy: The Area Under the Curve(04:50) Energy Crisis In Europe(07:58) Are Rising Energy Prices Leading To A Recession?(14:09) Should We Expect An Earnings Recession?(16:53) Signs Of Stress In The Treasury Market(20:36) Fireblocks Ad(21:55) Can The Fed Really Tighten?(28:14) How A U.S Dollar Spike Could Lead To Treasury Market Illiquidity(34:08) Universal Basic Income(41:52) The Decade Ahead--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this week's episode, Mark and I kick things off discussing the recent volatility in crypto markets. We then move on to discussing the bailouts in crypto by SBF and the comparisons between CeFi vs DeFi.Mark and I then touch on the Fed's quantitative tightening & balance sheet reduction, rising interest rates, record high inflation and how tightening into a recession is causing political strife across the globe discussing some very striking headlines over the past week.Finally, we touch on leverage, volatility & the best hedge fund performers of the past year including Bridgewater's 32% gains for the first half of 2022. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin," Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins the show for a discussion on inflation. Arguing that we are "entering an era of persistent inflation", Jim walks through the biggest winners in this market environment.After correctly predicting the Fed's hawkish stance ahead of most analysts, Jim shares his thoughts on the bond market pricing in a pivot throughout 2023. Jim goes on to walk through the bond market turmoil with the worst H1 performance being recorded since 1787.Finally, Jim speaks on the contagion in crypto comparing the differences between DeFi protocols and CeFi lenders. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Jim: https://twitter.com/biancoresearchFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show:Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger vents about Ohio chip plant delay: 'It's such a pivotal moment. Please don't dither in Congress.' https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/28/intel-ceo-on-ohio-chip-plant-delay-please-dont-dither-in-congress.htmlWalmart Says Reducing Inventory Glut Will Take 'Couple Quarters': https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-03/walmart-says-reducing-inventory-glut-will-take-couple-quartersRussell Clark: Brace For Structurally Higher Inflation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfdFNVsf2t0--Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks--Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw--(00:00) Introduction(02:00) "The Fed's Credibility Is On The Line"(05:55) Entering An Era Of Persistent Inflation(15:00) Which Assets Win When Inflation Hits?(24:45) Fireblocks Ad(26:02) The Bond Market Expects A Pivot In 2023(35:30) Contagion In Crypto(47:05) Could Stablecoins Cause Systemic Risk?(55:55) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

With Mark out, we have special guest filling in, Blockworks’ own Jack Farley, macro researcher and host of the Forward Guidance podcast. Jack explains how three recent events have made him think that a recession is more likely: moves in interest rates that suggest the Fed might pivot earlier than previously anticipated; the sharp fall in copper, cotton, and other commodity prices; and, most importantly, a forecast from the Atlanta Fed that real GDP for the U.S. will be negative.Mike then makes sense of the recent series of confidence runs that have taken the crypto world by storm, and he and Jack reflect on when the digital asset bear market might relent.Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/syrupsidFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “On the Margin” Sid Powell Co Founder of Maple Finance joins the show to discuss the recent credit contagion taking place in crypto. With liquidity drying up in crypto & markets at large, deleveraging & liquidations have been taking place across the board. Sid joins the show to discuss the recent risk-off sentiment in markets and explains the differences between CeFi and DeFi lending. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Sid: https://twitter.com/syrupsidFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show: Voyager Digital Issues 3AC Notice of Default on Loan Around $665M: https://blockworks.co/voyager-digital...Archegos Capital Blowup: What Investors Need to Know: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos...--Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks--Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw--(00:00) Introduction(00:30) Credit In Crypto (03:20) What Really Happened to 3AC?(06:45) CeFi vs DeFi Lending (10:20) Do We Need A Lender Of Last Resort? (22:10) The Consolidation Of Banking, An Opportunity For DeFi? (25:20) A Roadmap For Crypto Lending (29:00) Fireblocks Ad(30:18) A Roadmap For Crypto Lending (36:25) On Chain Rating Agencies (40:30) Building In A Bull vs Bear Market (53:55) Sam Bankman-Fried Backstops Crypto--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this week's episode, Mark and I kick things off with the current state of crypto markets. We next move into the economy, what the Fed is doing, and increasing economic indicators that we are heading towards a recession. Finally we wrap things up with the state of lending and credit in crypto, including the "runs on the bank" that we're seeing at Celsius and similar companies.For Mark and my take there, you'll have to listen to the show.--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

SoFi’s Liz Young joins us on today’s episode of “On the Margin” for a post-FOMC rundown. When the Fed abandoned its anticipated 50 bp increase in favor of a 75 bp rate hike on the back of the Department of Labor announcing a higher-than-expected CPI of 8.6%, markets had a violent repricing.Liz, SoFi’s head of investment strategy, walks listeners through the forces driving the Fed’s tightening cycle — she also covers the housing market, “animal spirits,” red flags signaling an earnings recession, and the Fed’s reaction function to the wealth effect.Does Liz think we should anticipate a recession and continued Fed hawkishness? To find out, you’ll have to tune in.--Follow Liz: https://twitter.com/LizYoungStratFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show: Fed Likely to Consider 0.75-Percentage-Point Rate Rise This Week: ​​https://www.wsj.com/articles/bad-inflation-reports-raise-odds-of-surprise-0-75-percentage-point-rate-rise-this-week-11655147927?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1Coinbase To Cut 18% of Workforce, CEO Wary of Potential Recession: https://blockworks.co/coinbase-cut-workforce-ceo-wary-of-potential-recession/Tech layoffs top 15K in a brutal May: https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/27/tech-layoffs-top-15k-employees-in-a-brutal-may/--Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks--Timestamps:(00:00)・Introduction(01:11)・FOMC Meeting(02:56)・Increased Volatility & Market Reaction To A 75bp Hike(07:26)・The Housing Market(12:01)・Fireblocks Ad(13:19)・A Deep Recession On The Horizon(21:35)・Inflation Is THE Fed's Greatest FearListen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Mark, Dan Tapiero and I discuss the latest FOMC meeting, the 75 basis point raise and the carnage rippling through the markets.Inflation is at record highs but are the FED’s rate hikes a precision tool or a blunt instrument that will cause lasting market damage?We explore the global financial market, crypto’s outlook and the most likely outcome of the bear market. Will the Fed raise rates until the market breaks? Will the money printer turn back on? Tune in to find out!--Follow Dan Tapiero: https://twitter.com/DTAPCAP Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced in the show:John Collison (Stripe) conversation with Stanley Druckenmillerhttps://youtu.be/-7sWLIybWnQ--Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Jurrien Timmer joins the show. As markets were in turmoil on Monday after a surging 8.6% inflation print on Friday, Jurrien joined the show to discuss all the macro forces driving markets. With bond yields spiking, equity markets selling off, crypto getting crushed, credit showing signs of stress and investors fleeing for the exit bidding the U.S Dollar higher, it's clear the "Fed taking away the punch bowl" caught investors out as liquidity dried up and correlations went to one.Jurrien goes on to discuss projected earnings, inflation expectations, the breakdown of a 60/40 portfolio during financial repression and the commodity supercycle thesis. Will the Fed be able to thread the needle? Looking back at periods throughout history, Jurrien helps answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Jurrien Timmer: https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelityFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show: US Home-Price Appreciation Accelerates for Fourth Month: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-31/us-home-price-appreciation-accelerates-for-fourth-month#xj4y7vzkgThe Four Stages of an Economic Slowdown: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuB2RcrXFHEGrant Williams Reveals the End Game for Central Bank Money Printing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hs4z8eU1qvISohn 2022 | John Collison in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7sWLIybWnQ--Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks--Timestamps:(00:00)・Introduction(01:06)・Market Turmoil(03:24)・Rising Cost Of Capital(10:37)・Are We Heading For An Earnings Recession?(16:12)・The Fed's Goal Is Demand Destruction(21:56)・Inflation Expectations, The Fed Put & Rising Real Estate(30:35)・Fireblocks Ad(31:54)・Historical Stocks/Bonds Correlation(41:11)・Unwinding Of The 60/40 During Financial Repression(45:51)・The Commodity SupercycleListen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Mark and I tackle the growing bubble in consumer credit. We take a look at the personal savings rate and compared it to the sudden staggering increase in revolving credit.We discussed the evolution of banking in recent history, the growing and worrisome trend of "Buy Now Pay Later" and Apple's foray into that field, and covered the overall psychology of consumers during a recession.We ended the episode by covering BlockFi's down round, and whether or not we can expect more of the same in crypto and tech. For that take, you'll have to tune into the show.--Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw--Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.