Supply Shock

In this week's episode, we discuss the Fed's attempt to crush all consumer demand. Mark believes we've just entered crypto spring, but that enthusiasm takes a turn as we discuss the Fed.With two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, we can officially (or now unofficially) say we are in a recession. I got Mark's take on the Fed's actions, expected fallout and future CPI prints.Next, we discuss the US' "friend-shoring" efforts, failed sanctions and other policy mishaps. Finally, we added a new "positivity segment" that includes our thoughts on aliens and human evolution - you'll have to tune in to find out more!-- Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MARGIN250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ ---- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_- -Referenced in the show:Janet Yellen "friend-shoring" https://tinyurl.com/2aprdz3p--Timestamps(00:00) Introduction(00:32) Mark confirms crypto spring is here(05:26) Blockworks' DAS 2022 conference(09:53) The Fed is crushing growth(18:52) Friend-shoring: ineffective sanctions and a multi-polar world(22:53) Is housing the next shoe to drop?(26:10) Changing the definition of a recession(28:42) Listen to the bond market(32:40) Fighting inflation & oil price manipulation(42:06) Money is a claim on time(49:27) Alexander Hamilton, maybe we need Maxis(51:26) Sinister Saturday special(54:37) Aliens, Webb telescope and human evolution--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Lawrence Lepard and Brent Johnson join Mike to discuss the dark side of a strong US dollar. We start with an overview of the US Dollar's role as the global reserve currency and how the dollar system is causing many of the problems we have today. Can the US dollar maintain its reserve status or are things falling apart?Then, Lawrence and Brent explain how a strong US dollar is causing weakness throughout the global economy - abroad and at home. Brent shares his short to medium-term outlook based on his Milkshake Theory, and Lawrence counters with his position that the dollar will unravel at an accelerated pace.We close with a discussion on how the Fed will act next. You don't want to miss this one!--Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code MARGIN250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!)--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/-- Follow Lawrence: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepardFollow Brent: https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFundFollow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--(00:00) Introduction(00:47) The Dollar's Role As The World's Reserve Currency(05:03) The Dangerous Effects of a Rising Dollar(11:58) The Dollar is a Geopolitical Tool(22:46) The Price the US Pays For a Rising Dollar(27:32) The Dollars' Fate(32:20) Why Relative Currency Value Matters(36:56) Opposing the US Empire(44:51) How Will the Fed Get Out Of This Mess?(48:23) Will the Dollar Implode Slowly Or Suddenly?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this week's episode, we discuss everyone's favorite subject: the bear market. I got Mark's take on the current bear, how it compares to previous bear markets in crypto, and what we should expect over the coming year. Next, we took a look at who has been selling Bitcoin in May and June. The largest (forced) seller was the Luna Foundation Guard, closely followed by Elon Musk's Tesla. We spent some time discussing Tesla's sale and why Elon may have decided to do that today.Next, we explain why things feel so divided today. Mark and I gave our take on wealth equality, the media, and hidden sets of incentives around ESG.Finally, we added a new "positivity segment - you'll have to tune in to find out more! Also, if anyone wants to watch my grandpa's interview, here's the link.--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/-- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--(00:00) Introduction(00:40) Is the worst of the crypto bear behind us?(16:54) The Reason Tesla Liquidated Their BTC(22:25) The Greatest Polarization in History (34:48) The One Metric We Should All Optimize--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Anonymous analyst Mr Blonde joins the show for a discussion on the cyclical forces driving markets in 2022.We discuss the increasing recession signals and how they will effect earnings for the second half of 2022. With a rising dollar, 9.1% inflation, an increasingly hawkish Fed and the end of "peak liquidity", just how will all these forces effect equity markets throughout 2022? To find out, you'll have to tune!--Follow Mr. Blonde: https://twitter.com/MrBlonde_macroFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show:Housing IS the Business Cycle: https://www.nber.org/papers/w13428 The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks: https://blogs.tslombard.com/the-nightmare-scenario-for-central-banks?hss_channel=tw-510529116Current State of the Housing Market: https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/current-state-of-the-housing-market-3f2--Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:45) Rising Risk Of Recession(02:41) Heading For An Earnings Recession(04:09) We Entered 2022 With Peak Liquidity, Peak Valuations & Peak Earnings, What Next?(09:45) How Energy Has Impacted Earnings(18:08) What Is Happening In Credit?(22:52) The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks(31:01) Housing IS The Business Cycle(37:19) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this week's episode, Mark and I kick things off discussing the Bitcoin market. Could crypto winter be passing and signs of crypto spring be starting to emerge? We then move on to discuss the historic value of equities going all he way back to 1871 vs now in 2022. With still elevated P/E's, is there more pain to come for equities despite rising rates? We draw parallels between the 2001 tech bubble which also saw high energy prices, a rising dollar and rising yields.Finally, we break down the recent 9.1% CPI print and if we could be in for a period of secular inflation. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy joins the show. Lyn begins by explaining the energy shock she spotted in 2021 walking through her most recent piece "Energy: The Area Under the Curve".Lyn then shares her outlook on the U.S Dollar wrecking ball as the DXY breaches 20 year highs trading over 108. How will a rising U.S Dollar effect the chances of a recession, stress in credit markets and more importantly U.S treasury market liquidity? Could this be "checkmate" for the Fed? To find out, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Lyn: https://twitter.com/LynAldenContactFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show:Energy: The Area Under the Curve: https://www.lynalden.com/the-area-under-the-curve/Sohn 2022 | John Collison in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7sWLIybWnQ--Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks--Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:51) Energy: The Area Under the Curve(04:50) Energy Crisis In Europe(07:58) Are Rising Energy Prices Leading To A Recession?(14:09) Should We Expect An Earnings Recession?(16:53) Signs Of Stress In The Treasury Market(20:36) Fireblocks Ad(21:55) Can The Fed Really Tighten?(28:14) How A U.S Dollar Spike Could Lead To Treasury Market Illiquidity(34:08) Universal Basic Income(41:52) The Decade Ahead--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this week's episode, Mark and I kick things off discussing the recent volatility in crypto markets. We then move on to discussing the bailouts in crypto by SBF and the comparisons between CeFi vs DeFi.Mark and I then touch on the Fed's quantitative tightening & balance sheet reduction, rising interest rates, record high inflation and how tightening into a recession is causing political strife across the globe discussing some very striking headlines over the past week.Finally, we touch on leverage, volatility & the best hedge fund performers of the past year including Bridgewater's 32% gains for the first half of 2022. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin," Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins the show for a discussion on inflation. Arguing that we are "entering an era of persistent inflation", Jim walks through the biggest winners in this market environment.After correctly predicting the Fed's hawkish stance ahead of most analysts, Jim shares his thoughts on the bond market pricing in a pivot throughout 2023. Jim goes on to walk through the bond market turmoil with the worst H1 performance being recorded since 1787.Finally, Jim speaks on the contagion in crypto comparing the differences between DeFi protocols and CeFi lenders. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Jim: https://twitter.com/biancoresearchFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show:Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger vents about Ohio chip plant delay: 'It's such a pivotal moment. Please don't dither in Congress.' https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/28/intel-ceo-on-ohio-chip-plant-delay-please-dont-dither-in-congress.htmlWalmart Says Reducing Inventory Glut Will Take 'Couple Quarters': https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-03/walmart-says-reducing-inventory-glut-will-take-couple-quartersRussell Clark: Brace For Structurally Higher Inflation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfdFNVsf2t0--Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks--Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw--(00:00) Introduction(02:00) "The Fed's Credibility Is On The Line"(05:55) Entering An Era Of Persistent Inflation(15:00) Which Assets Win When Inflation Hits?(24:45) Fireblocks Ad(26:02) The Bond Market Expects A Pivot In 2023(35:30) Contagion In Crypto(47:05) Could Stablecoins Cause Systemic Risk?(55:55) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

With Mark out, we have special guest filling in, Blockworks’ own Jack Farley, macro researcher and host of the Forward Guidance podcast. Jack explains how three recent events have made him think that a recession is more likely: moves in interest rates that suggest the Fed might pivot earlier than previously anticipated; the sharp fall in copper, cotton, and other commodity prices; and, most importantly, a forecast from the Atlanta Fed that real GDP for the U.S. will be negative.Mike then makes sense of the recent series of confidence runs that have taken the crypto world by storm, and he and Jack reflect on when the digital asset bear market might relent.Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/syrupsidFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “On the Margin” Sid Powell Co Founder of Maple Finance joins the show to discuss the recent credit contagion taking place in crypto. With liquidity drying up in crypto & markets at large, deleveraging & liquidations have been taking place across the board. Sid joins the show to discuss the recent risk-off sentiment in markets and explains the differences between CeFi and DeFi lending. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Sid: https://twitter.com/syrupsidFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show: Voyager Digital Issues 3AC Notice of Default on Loan Around $665M: https://blockworks.co/voyager-digital...Archegos Capital Blowup: What Investors Need to Know: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos...--Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks--Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw--(00:00) Introduction(00:30) Credit In Crypto (03:20) What Really Happened to 3AC?(06:45) CeFi vs DeFi Lending (10:20) Do We Need A Lender Of Last Resort? (22:10) The Consolidation Of Banking, An Opportunity For DeFi? (25:20) A Roadmap For Crypto Lending (29:00) Fireblocks Ad(30:18) A Roadmap For Crypto Lending (36:25) On Chain Rating Agencies (40:30) Building In A Bull vs Bear Market (53:55) Sam Bankman-Fried Backstops Crypto--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.