Supply Shock

In today’s episode of On The Margin, we bring on Jason and Santi from Empire to discuss our 2023 crypto thesis. We debate predictions on the Wallet Wars, ETH vs Bitcoin, the rise of insurance, app-specific vertical integration, the adoption of CBDCs, Coinbase vs DEXs, MEV as a business model and more!- -Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(02:30) Crypto’s 2022 Wrapped(12:18) The Bottom is in for Crypto, not for Equities(19:46) Kings of Spot & NFT Trading Will Lose Market Share(22:50) Stablecoins, DeFi’s Resurgence and Permissioned Protocols(28:10) Regulators are Coming, and the CBDC debate(33:31) MEV will be the Business Model for DeFi & Exchanges(42:13) No Industry Takes Off Without Insurance(48:57) A Market Bottom & the Value of Memes(52:44) Curve ad(54:00) ETH vs Bitcoin (spicy)(1:05:13) Miner Capitulation, Wallet Wars & Gaming(1:12:54) Vertical Integration, Privacy and Payments(1:19:13) The Rise of Professional Guilds- -Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Santi: https://twitter.com/santiagoroelFollow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitzEmpire links:Subscribe on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4fdhhb2jSubscribe on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mv4frfv7Subscribe on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/wbaypprwFollow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepodOn The Margin links:Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3YGtdmlSubscribe on Apple: https://bit.ly/3BUZXhKSubscribe on Spotify: https://bit.ly/3hHY1m4Follow OTM: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/- -Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of On the Margin, we are joined by Byron Gilliam, Blockworks' very own Newsletter writer for a discussion on top market events in 2022, and what to expect going into 2023.We begin by discussing the current bear market in equities and bonds where Byron highlights "this bear market is not that bad" compared to previous bear markets. With his experience as an equites trader, Byron shares his thoughts on the typical 60/40, what equities look reasonably priced after the corrections seen in 2022 and how inflation influenced the investing environment over the year.We then reflect on the crypto markets in 2022 and some of the CeFi deleveraging. Is this positive long term for the space, or could this hinder investor interest in the industry. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Byron: https://twitter.com/bgilliam1982Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show:https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:06) This Bear Market Is Not That Bad(03:07) Is 60/40 Dead?(04:56) Is Inflation Secular, Or Will Transitory Be Proven Right?(07:37) Are Earnings The Next Shoe To Drop?(09:55) The Importance of Liquidity In 2022(12:24) In Defense of Arthur Burns(21:29) Could Market's Be Flat For A Decade?(26:32) Reflecting On Crypto In 2022(29:12) Crypto Will Be Great For Users, But Not For Investors(35:38) Does Crypto Really Need A New Bull Market?(38:04) Will CeFi Contagion Help Spur DeFi Growth?(43:38) Has Elon Musk Bitten of More Than He Can Chew With Twitter?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mark & Mike discuss the continued FTX fallout as SBF was taken into custody in the Bahamas on Monday. The collapse of FTX left some investors fleeing from exchanges, particularly Binance, but when compared to previous withdrawal days, there was nothing out of the ordinary. We then go on to discuss Genesis and Tether as more potential risks crypto could face, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Blockworks just released a new podcast called 1000x! We're dropping the first episode here as we think you might want to add this podcast to the lineup. 1000x is a crypto markets podcast hosted by professional traders Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg that dives deep into the macro and micro factors that represent the lifeblood of digital money and web3. In this episode, Avi and Jonah discuss how to think like a crypto trader. They explore how today's market compares to the 2018 bear, where to look for opportunities, the investment landscape post-FTX and our top investing frameworks. A new 1000x episode will drop on Empire's RSS feed and the 1000x YouTube channel every two weeks.- -Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:28) Why We Started 1000x(06:18) Today’s Market Compared To 2018(16:17) How To Think About Trading Markets(23:25) Market Structure Post-FTX(28:05) Managing Risks(36:30) Investing Frameworks(48:12) Crypto Is Here To Stay- -Follow Avi: https://twitter.com/AviFelmanFollow Jonah: https://twitter.com/jvb_xyzFollow 1000x: https://twitter.com/1000xPodSubscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3Fw083ZSubscribe on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mv4frfv7Subscribe on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/wbaypprwGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/- -ResourcesGolden Treehttps://www.goldentree.com/Cumberlandhttps://cumberland.io/Avi's psychology of a market tweethttps://twitter.com/AviFelman/status/1595176484766883843- -Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

On today's episode of On the Margin, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research joins the show to answer the question: "Have we hit the bear market low?". We start with David's view that the market is still overpriced and the overwhelming odds of a recession in 2023. He explains why the yield curve is the most important variable, what to watch in the bond market and how a consumer default cycle will play out. We then finish the discussion on supply-side inflation, why David expects deflation is on the horizon and what to expect next!--Follow David: https://twitter.com/EconguyRosieFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency which outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.--Referenced In The Show:Rosenberg Researchhttps://www.rosenbergresearch.com/Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Criseshttps://www.amazon.com/Manias-Panics-Crashes-History-Financial/dp/1137525754Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculationhttps://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/91360.Devil_Take_the_Hindmost--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:16) Have We Hit The Bear Market Low?(11:30) Will The Fed Break The Market?(21:10) What Does A Default Cycle Look Like?(29:26) When Will Reality Set In For Consumers?(37:26) Circle Ad(38:46) Has J Powell Over-Tightened?(44:54) Supply-Driven Inflation(52:54) Which Assets Get Bid First In A Recovery?(1:02:28) The US Outlook(1:05:39) People Don’t Learn From History--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mark & Mike discuss the recent market rally and dive into wether this is a new bull cycle, or a classic bear market rally. We then discuss the Alameda venture capital portfolio that was released by the FT walking through the $5.4 Billion of investments on the excel spread sheet. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_the_margin , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Ben Hunt Author of Epsilon Theory & Doomberg, everyones favorite green chicken join the show to discuss "The Story Arc of SBF, FTX & Alameda".One month ago saw the collapse of SBF's crypto empire as FTX filed for bankruptcy. Ben & Doomberg discuss the ties between SBFs exchange FTX and trading firm Alameda Research. We then look into the use of the FTT token and how SBF was able to raise venture capital money at unrealistic valuations. Was SBF negligent in this situation, or did he intentionally commit fraud? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Ben: https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheoryFollow Doomberg: https://twitter.com/DoombergTFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.--Referenced In The Show:The MacGuffin, Part 2: The Story Arc of SBF and FTX: https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-macguffin-part-2-the-story-arc-of-sbf-and-ftx/ The MacGuffin, Part 1: The Corrupt Crypto ‘Revolution’: https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-macguffin-part-1/ How Sam Bankman-Fried’s Crypto Empire Collapsed: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/14/technology/ftx-sam-bankman-fried-crypto-bankruptcy.html--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:36) The MacGuffin: The Story Arc of SBF & FTX(14:07) The FTX Bankruptcy & The Role of FTT(18:09) The Mechanics of Rehypothecation(27:25) Negligence or Criminality?(35:35) Circle Ad(36:55) How Much Political & Media Power Did SBF Buy?(42:50) The New York Times Puff Piece(49:59) The Role of Investors, Media & Regulators In The FTX Fallout(56:00) The Golden Age of Fraud(1:02:02) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mark & Mike are joined by special guest Joseph Wang for a deep dive on the top stories of the week. SBF spoke at the New York Times Dealbook summit so we share our thoughts on that interview.We then move on to Powell's speech at the Brookings Institution where he hinted at a 50bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting. Market's rallied after the speech as the expected a more dovish stance from the Fed going forward. What is the outlook for inflation, the job market and what Powell is signalling to the market into 2023? To find out, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_the_margin , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Recorded November 30thThis conversation is from a Twitter spaces with Erik Voorhees moments after SBF gave his interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin at the New York Times DealBook summit.Listen On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3B4xe9HListen On Apple: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM—Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Erik: https://twitter.com/ErikVoorheesFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Bob Elliott CIO of Unlimited Funds joins the show to discuss everything happening in markets right now. Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates where he served on the Investment Committee and created investment strategies, many of which were used in the flagship Pure Alpha fund.Having studied previous macroeconomic cycles, Bob states "this is a textbook inflationary cycle". Bob goes on to discuss the new higher rate environment we are in compared to the last decade, what it means for the economy and which assets will be perform best, or worst, in this environment. Finally, Bob takes his years of experience investing in private markets to explain how "the era of cheap money" will effect those private market valuations into 2023 and beyond. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Bob: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimitedFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://onthemargin.link/curve, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Referenced In The Show:The Economic Organization of a P.O.W. Camp: http://icm.clsbe.lisboa.ucp.pt/docentes/url/jcn/ie2/0POWCamp.pdf--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(05:08) The Economic Organization of a P.O.W. Camp(09:50) This Inflationary Cycle Is No Different Than Previous Cycles Throughout History(15:47) Circle Ad(17:07) Progressing Through The Tightening Cycle(23:31) Why Did The Fed Miss inflation?(29:48) The Role of 60/40 In 2022(39:08) What Is Happening In Private Markets?(42:31) "The Era of Cheap Money Is Over"(50:50) Curve Ad(52:06) Investing In Venture Capital During A Bull Market(1:02:13) The FTX Fallout(1:10:57) What To Expect Into 2023(1:16:30) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.