Supply Shock

Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Market Depth On YouTube: http://bit.ly/3JKhw8I--On today's episode of On the Margin, Weston Nakamura, the latest addition to the Blockworks team joins the show to discuss his brand new podcast Market Depth! You can follow the links above to listen to the first episode of Market Depth.Following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Mike and Weston discuss the market reaction and subsequent historic moves in the bond market, which saw the largest decline in the 2Y treasury yield since 1982. We also discuss broader implications on global markets, the BoJ's passing of the guard as Kuroda leaves office and how markets have seemingly shrugged off the SVB collapse. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This debut episode is from our brand new podcast Market Depth hosted by Weston Nakamura. Follow Market Depth using the links below to stay up to date with the latest episodes!Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Market Depth On YouTube: http://bit.ly/3JKhw8I--Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth or On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, after a week of turmoil across the banking industry, Mike & Mark discuss the collapse of Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank. With fears mounting over the mark to market value of bank's asset's, we walk through the dynamics which led to depositors running for the exit doors in typical bank run style fashion.What lies ahead for the banking industry from here? Will contagion spread like in 2008, or are banks much better capitalised to weather the storm in 2023? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!Filmed Friday 10th March hours before the closing of Silicon Valley Bank.--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of On the Margin, Shehzad Qazi Managing Director at China Beige Book joins the show for a discussion on the cyclical and secular outlook for the Chinese economy.As China has announced their full reopening, Shehzad is able to walk through the data China beige Book has been able to collect throughout January and February. Expecting a positive year for China, Shehzad walks through both the cyclical and more structural slower growth environment China will experience over the coming decade due to Xi Jinping's new focus on "common prosperity", as appose to growth at all costs. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Shehzad: https://twitter.com/shehzadhqaziFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to https://Public.com/onthemargin*26-week T-bill rate (as of 3/8/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees.**As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22).--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:27) The Chinese Lockdown of 2022(02:17) China In 2023: A Tale of Two Stories(07:30) The Chinese Credit Impulse(10:03) Public Ad(11:26) The Chinese Banking System(16:13) The Reopening's Impact On Commodities(19:25) Will The Reopening In China Spur Inflation?(24:57) U.S & China In The Great Power Competition(36:08) China's Demographic Decline(40:20) A New Paradigm Over The Next Decade--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, as Mark takes some well deserved time off, we combine forces with Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast for a special edition of Forward Marginal Guidance.As Berkshire Hathaway released their 2023 shareholder letter, we invited Buffett expert Yun Li to the show to share her top takeaways from this years annual letter. We then take a deep dive into inflation, yields and the how the Fed may be forced to act as signs of inflation resurging rear their head. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Yun: https://twitter.com/YunLi626Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Referenced In The Show:To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2022ltr.pdf--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of On the Margin, Cameron Dawson CIO at NewEdge Wealth joins the show for a discussion on the path ahead for the Fed, the outlook for earnings and a potential new regime for markets as certain inflation data begins reaccelerating.We also take a look at some of America's great recessions and discuss wether or not they provide good comparisons to 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Cameron: https://twitter.com/CameronDawsonFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Referenced In The Show:Disequilibrium How America's Great Inflation Led to the Great Recession: https://books.apple.com/us/book/disequilibrium/id1183616897 Running Up That Hill: Confronting Earnings Hills: https://www.newedgewealth.com/running-up-that-hill/ --Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:43) Hard Landing, Soft Landing Or No Landing?(02:57) The Fed's Job Isn't Over Yet(11:13) The Bond Market Scores A D-(13:36) Blockworks Research(14:26) Looking Back At America's Great Recessions(28:27) How The QE Era Differs From QT Now(32:06) The Median Voter Theorem(36:25) Permissionless 2023(37:10) Running Up That Hill: Confronting Earnings Hills(44:52) The Bull, Bear & Neutral Case For Earnings(52:46) A New Regime For Markets?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mike & Mark begin by discussing the Coinbase Q4 earnings which saw an additional $30 million in revenue than analysts had expected. We break down the balance sheet and compare Coinbase's revenue when operating in bull & bear markets.We then move on to Coinbase's layer-2 announcement, Base. Could this signal a turning point amid crypto winter and how will this impact the crypto developer ecosystem. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of On the Margin, Vincent Deluard Director of Global Macro at StoneX joins the show for a discussion on the rise of secular inflation.Being early to the inflation call, Vincent walks through the dynamics that allowed him to spot the rise of inflation, and how it will impact the next decade and beyond. We then dive into the role of inflation during a fourth turning and how this could shift the balance back to labor, contrary to the rise of capital during "the great disinflation. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Vincent: https://twitter.com/VincentDeluardFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Referenced In The Show:Clip: Sir James Goldsmith Presciently Explaining Globalization in 1994: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKe38mVpHgk--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:55) Why Is 2023 Data So Strong?(05:28) Turns Out... Europe Didn't Freeze(10:19) Liquidity vs The Economy(13:00) Blockworks Research(14:33) Becoming An Early Inflationista(21:47) Inflation Is The Solution(30:46) The End of Secular Disinflation(35:33) Permissionless 2023(36:17) The Fourth Turning(40:53) The Key To Inflation Is Trust(44:19) Preparing For The Coming Decade Amid Secular Inflation--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mike & Mark discuss the outlook for inflation in 2023. On the back of a 6.4% YoY CPI, could inflation remain sticky, or will the year ahead be met with a sharp decline in inflation?As "animal spirits" persist in markets, despite the yield curve repricing higher, and the terminal rate along with it, why are markets so intent on fighting the Fed? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of On the Margin, Warren Pies Founder of 3Fourteen Research joins the show to discuss wether the Fed will be able to achieve their soft landing.Focusing on the housing market, Warren describes how this is the key signal to watch for a hard vs soft landing in the U.S economy. Warren then walks through the Fed's quantitative tightening program and how this could effect markets in 2023. As short term bullish technicals emerge, how should investors position if the long term fundamentals are bearish?Finally, with an expertise in energy markets, Warren walks through "the energy trade" of the 2022, and how it could perform into 2023. As many headwinds remain for energy supply, what implications will China's economy reopening have for the global energy market? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Warren: https://twitter.com/WarrenPiesFollow 3Fourteen Research: https://twitter.com/3F_ResearchFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:49) How Likely Is A Soft Landing?(08:28) Quantitative Tightening(16:34) Preparing For A Fed Pause/Pivot(20:00) Blockworks Research(20:49) Bullish Technicals vs Bearish Fundamentals(27:32) The Path Ahead For Inflation In 2023(31:09) Animal Spirits Are Back For Markets(34:18) Warren's Earnings Forecast(38:29) Permissionless 2023(39:13) The Effect Of China Reopening(44:50) How Energy Drove Inflation(48:50) Cycles Take Time To Play Out--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.