Supply Shock

This week, as Mark takes some well deserved time off, we combine forces with Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast for a special edition of Forward Marginal Guidance.As Berkshire Hathaway released their 2023 shareholder letter, we invited Buffett expert Yun Li to the show to share her top takeaways from this years annual letter. We then take a deep dive into inflation, yields and the how the Fed may be forced to act as signs of inflation resurging rear their head. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Yun: https://twitter.com/YunLi626Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Referenced In The Show:To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2022ltr.pdf--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of On the Margin, Cameron Dawson CIO at NewEdge Wealth joins the show for a discussion on the path ahead for the Fed, the outlook for earnings and a potential new regime for markets as certain inflation data begins reaccelerating.We also take a look at some of America's great recessions and discuss wether or not they provide good comparisons to 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Cameron: https://twitter.com/CameronDawsonFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Referenced In The Show:Disequilibrium How America's Great Inflation Led to the Great Recession: https://books.apple.com/us/book/disequilibrium/id1183616897 Running Up That Hill: Confronting Earnings Hills: https://www.newedgewealth.com/running-up-that-hill/ --Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:43) Hard Landing, Soft Landing Or No Landing?(02:57) The Fed's Job Isn't Over Yet(11:13) The Bond Market Scores A D-(13:36) Blockworks Research(14:26) Looking Back At America's Great Recessions(28:27) How The QE Era Differs From QT Now(32:06) The Median Voter Theorem(36:25) Permissionless 2023(37:10) Running Up That Hill: Confronting Earnings Hills(44:52) The Bull, Bear & Neutral Case For Earnings(52:46) A New Regime For Markets?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mike & Mark begin by discussing the Coinbase Q4 earnings which saw an additional $30 million in revenue than analysts had expected. We break down the balance sheet and compare Coinbase's revenue when operating in bull & bear markets.We then move on to Coinbase's layer-2 announcement, Base. Could this signal a turning point amid crypto winter and how will this impact the crypto developer ecosystem. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of On the Margin, Vincent Deluard Director of Global Macro at StoneX joins the show for a discussion on the rise of secular inflation.Being early to the inflation call, Vincent walks through the dynamics that allowed him to spot the rise of inflation, and how it will impact the next decade and beyond. We then dive into the role of inflation during a fourth turning and how this could shift the balance back to labor, contrary to the rise of capital during "the great disinflation. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Vincent: https://twitter.com/VincentDeluardFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Referenced In The Show:Clip: Sir James Goldsmith Presciently Explaining Globalization in 1994: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKe38mVpHgk--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:55) Why Is 2023 Data So Strong?(05:28) Turns Out... Europe Didn't Freeze(10:19) Liquidity vs The Economy(13:00) Blockworks Research(14:33) Becoming An Early Inflationista(21:47) Inflation Is The Solution(30:46) The End of Secular Disinflation(35:33) Permissionless 2023(36:17) The Fourth Turning(40:53) The Key To Inflation Is Trust(44:19) Preparing For The Coming Decade Amid Secular Inflation--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mike & Mark discuss the outlook for inflation in 2023. On the back of a 6.4% YoY CPI, could inflation remain sticky, or will the year ahead be met with a sharp decline in inflation?As "animal spirits" persist in markets, despite the yield curve repricing higher, and the terminal rate along with it, why are markets so intent on fighting the Fed? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of On the Margin, Warren Pies Founder of 3Fourteen Research joins the show to discuss wether the Fed will be able to achieve their soft landing.Focusing on the housing market, Warren describes how this is the key signal to watch for a hard vs soft landing in the U.S economy. Warren then walks through the Fed's quantitative tightening program and how this could effect markets in 2023. As short term bullish technicals emerge, how should investors position if the long term fundamentals are bearish?Finally, with an expertise in energy markets, Warren walks through "the energy trade" of the 2022, and how it could perform into 2023. As many headwinds remain for energy supply, what implications will China's economy reopening have for the global energy market? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Warren: https://twitter.com/WarrenPiesFollow 3Fourteen Research: https://twitter.com/3F_ResearchFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:49) How Likely Is A Soft Landing?(08:28) Quantitative Tightening(16:34) Preparing For A Fed Pause/Pivot(20:00) Blockworks Research(20:49) Bullish Technicals vs Bearish Fundamentals(27:32) The Path Ahead For Inflation In 2023(31:09) Animal Spirits Are Back For Markets(34:18) Warren's Earnings Forecast(38:29) Permissionless 2023(39:13) The Effect Of China Reopening(44:50) How Energy Drove Inflation(48:50) Cycles Take Time To Play Out--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mike & Mark discuss the SEC crackdown on crypto as Kraken settles for a $30 million fine and agrees to stop it's staking operation. Mark states "first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win". As the pressure ramps up on U.S crypto companies, what will this mean for the future of the industry? --Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of On the Margin, Peter Boockvar Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group and Editor of The Boock Report joins the show for a discussion on the path ahead for the U.S economy.As markets have rallied to start the year, Peter walks through the state of the U.S economy. With inflation having seemingly peaked, Powell seems confident that disinflation will be the path ahead for 2023. Peter breaks down Powell's recent comments at the press conference last week before discussing how interest rates being "higher for longer" will effect corporate & household balance sheets and wether the Fed will get their soft landing. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Peter: https://twitter.com/pboockvarFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.9% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to https://Public.com/onthemargin *26-week T-bill rate (as of 2/6/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees. **As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22).--Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Referenced In The Show:All Eyes On Inflation: "A Pause Is Not A Pivot" | Weekly Round Up: https://open.spotify.com/episode/50ABz990nXRh2NEXU6aVRd?si=3b9a53f609314f94The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/--Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction(00:35) A Breakdown of The U.S Economy (02:40) Why Animal Spirits Are Back For Markets (08:45) Will Powell Get His Soft Landing? (14:12) Public Ad(15:59) Rates Will Remain Higher For Longer(22:46) The Chinese Reopening (27:00) The Path Ahead For Inflation (30:40) Permissionless Announcement (31:24) Preparing For A Recession (38:50) Breaking Down Earnings (46:16) "The Market Is Partying Like It's 2021"--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mike & Mark discuss the week of central bank rate hikes and press conferences. With the Fed, BoE & ECB continuing to raise interest rates, markets attempted to price in an eventual pause in rate hikes.With the S&P 500 up roughly 7% through January 2023, and the most speculative of names rallying the most, reminiscent of 2021, we walk through the liquidity cycle up trend and how the loosening of financial conditions has eased downward pressure on the market to start off the new year. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of On the Margin, Jim Bianco Founder of Bianco Research LLC joins the show alongside Jack Farley Host of Forward Guidance for a discussion on Powell's press conference on Wednesday 1st February.Markets started the new year with a strong rally seeing gains of around 7% in the S&P 500. Many anticipated a hawkish press conference from Jerome Powell in a bid to tighten financial conditions and try ease some of the "animal spirits" that we saw throughout 2021. Jim makes just that comparison. "This market is showing signs of 2021" with the most speculative and highest beta names rallying the most. We walk through Powell's comments in the press conference after raising rates 25 basis points and what the path ahead will mean for markets, the economy and most importantly inflation.--Follow Jim: https://twitter.com/biancoresearchFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code MARGIN10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.