Supply Shock

David Rosenberg: A 2023 Recession Is Unavoidable

Dec 14, 2022

01:11:19

Episode guests

David Rosenberg

Highlights

AI Chapters

Episode notes

What Happens at the Lows?

01:20

What to Expect from Assets in 2019

01:26

Consumer Credit Quality

01:20

The Fed Is the Fed Making Policy Mistake

03:59

Introduction

3min

Is the Stock Market Starting to Bottom?

5min

Do We Have a Stock Market Bottom Yet?

3min

Are You Surprised That Nothing Major Has Broken?

3min

What's Going on in the Credit Card Space?

5min

Is It a Soft Landing in Orange County?

2min

What's Going to Happen in the Mortgage Market?

5min

What Happens When the Fed Uses Policy Even More?

3min

Is the Consumer Back?

5min

10.

Is the Fed Never Got What It Wanted?

4min

11.

Circles USDC - The One Stop Shop for a Secure Digital Dollar

5min

12.

The Fed's Rule Number One - Mean Reversion

2min

13.

Inflation Is a Complex Problem

2min

14.

COVID - What's Changed?

2min

15.

The Fed Is the Fed Making Policy Mistake

4min

16.

How Do Assets Perform in a Recessionary Bear Market?

5min

17.

How Do You Value Crypto?

4min

18.

Is the US the Cleanest Shirt in the Laundry Basket?

4min

19.

Charles Kindle Burgers, Manious Panics and Crashings

2min

20.

Rosenberg Research - What's the Best Way to Get Started?

3min

On today's episode of On the Margin, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research joins the show to answer the question: "Have we hit the bear market low?".

We start with David's view that the market is still overpriced and the overwhelming odds of a recession in 2023. He explains why the yield curve is the most important variable, what to watch in the bond market and how a consumer default cycle will play out. We then finish the discussion on supply-side inflation, why David expects deflation is on the horizon and what to expect next!

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Referenced In The Show:

Rosenberg Research

https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/

Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises

https://www.amazon.com/Manias-Panics-Crashes-History-Financial/dp/1137525754

Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation

https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/91360.Devil_Take_the_Hindmost

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:16) Have We Hit The Bear Market Low?

(11:30) Will The Fed Break The Market?

(21:10) What Does A Default Cycle Look Like?

(29:26) When Will Reality Set In For Consumers?

(37:26) Circle Ad

(38:46) Has J Powell Over-Tightened?

(44:54) Supply-Driven Inflation

(52:54) Which Assets Get Bid First In A Recovery?

(1:02:28) The US Outlook

(1:05:39) People Don’t Learn From History

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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