Pitch The PM

Welcome to Pitch The PM, where host Doug Garber is joined by Aaron Ginn, CEO and Co-founder at Hydra Host.— — — —In this episode, Doug Garber and Aaron Ginn to unpack the forces reshaping the global AI infrastructure stack. They dive deep into Nvidia’s growing dominance and explore how CEO Jensen Huang is building an ecosystem designed to sideline the hyperscalers, financing their destruction while capturing more of the value chain.Aaron breaks down the shift from public cloud to bare metal, the margin squeeze facing Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, and why GPU infrastructure, not models or software, is now the real bottleneck. The episode also explores the emerging spot market for compute, the evolving ROI math for data centers, and why neoclouds are gaining ground as hyperscaler credibility erodes.From regionalization and reshoring to export controls and geopolitical leverage, this conversation goes beyond semis and into the future of economic power in the AI era.See below for episode disclosures.— — — —Aaron Ginn is the Co-Founder and CEO of Hydra Host, a fast-growing infrastructure company building the largest GPU management platform in the world. Hydra provides a fully automated, API-driven system for monetizing GPU and CPU infrastructure, streamlining bare metal deployment at scale. Before founding Hydra, Aaron co-founded the Lincoln Network (now Foundation for American Innovation) and Fabius Labs, with a focus on bridging technology, policy, and product design. He has over a decade of experience in tech, spanning product, engineering, and digital growth. His work has been featured in outlets including The Wall Street Journal, TechCrunch, and Wired.— — — —📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts. ⁠https://lnkd.in/ekkxjp6z⁠Episode partner: AlphaSenseKeep our content free, and please consider supporting our sponsors. They are essential in helping us do our deep-dive research.💡 This episode is powered by AlphaSense. Use our link here for Complimentary access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/— — — —Chapters:[00:00] – Intro & Hydrahost’s Origin Story[03:07] – The Evolution of Data Centers & AI Infrastructure.[08:49] – Nvidia's Role & Shifting Market Power[14:47] – The Decline of Traditional Cloud[20:54] – The Competitive Landscape. Google, Amazon, and the bundling tactics shaping GPU access. [24:01] – Geopolitics & Digital Infrastructure[37:34] – ROI & GPU Utilization Strategies[43:36] – Market Liquidity & Pricing Dynamics[53:23] – Capital Models & Financial Engineering GPU resale, and payback strategies.[58:01]- China’s Huawei push, Nvidia’s ecosystem defense, and infrastructure land grabs.▶️ MORE VARIANT VIEW EPISODES:NVDA: As Good As It Gets: https://youtu.be/x8gJ8ElyUlM?si=pRlRnhrH6Hknp9zUTUSK: Cigar Butt Morphing into a Compounder: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0mF5WK91oc&t=396sFollow Pitch The PM:LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508X: https://x.com/PitchThePMSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5— — — —⚠️ Not Investment Advice. For Educational Purposes. See disclaimers at PitchThePM.com

Welcome back to another episode of Pitch The PM. In this episode, Doug Garber flips roles and steps in as the analyst pitching Vestis Corporation (VSTS)—a recent spin-out, route-based industrial with a new CEO taking the helm after missteps from the initial CEO. Former SAC PM Hugh Anderson plays the part of portfolio manager, dissecting the thesis and poking holes in the evidence. Together they examine whether the business is broken or simply sandbagged, if re-aligning the sales force incentives by limiting credits can drive margin recovery, and whether new CEO Jim Barber (former UPS COO) can execute a Cintas-style transformation. With short interest high and expectations low, is this a compelling special situation or a value trap?— — — —Get Doug’s version of the Earnings Preview Checklist: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/p/vsts-sanbagged-guide-new-ceo-s-turnaround-plan-could-be-a-catalyst-high-short-interestChapters:[00:00:00] What ACTION do I want the Portfolio Manager to take? Doug owns VSTS ahead of what he believes is an underappreciated Q3 setup, driven by sandbagged guidance, a new CEO presenting a turnaround plan. He is bias, so do your own research.[00:03:40] Do I UNDERSTAND this business? Doug draws on his industrial’s experience from Citadel and Millennium, and lays out VSTS’s core model—route-based delivery of uniforms and business supplies—and how its execution compares to peers like Cintas and UniFirst.[00:10:50] Is the stock available at a REASONABLE price today?VSTS trades at ~8x EV/EBITDA vs. Cintas at 29x. Doug argues valuation is fair for a fixer-upper and notes that upside lies in earnings revisions, not rerating.[00:12:55] Why is this stock MIS-PRICED?Street views VSTS as broken due to management stumbles, two major guidance cuts, and high leverage. Doug sees it as a speed bump, not a structural issue.[00:14:50] What is the VARIANT VIEW vs the street?Doug believes recent underperformance and sandbagging have lowered the bar, setting up a potential beat. The April run-rate already matched December’s, suggesting Q3 upside.[00:18:00] What is the EVIDENCE?The last conference call lays out the rebound in sales back to December levels in April. Plus, the excessive narrative on credits helps explain the high decremental margins during the recent shortfall. [00:25:00] What are the CATALYSTS for the street to realize my view?A Q3 beat followed by a Q4 guide above consensus could lead to higher earnings revisions and thus a higher stock price. Plus, the CEO’s turnaround plan could be positive. And there is high-short interest.[00:34:00] What is it WORTH if the bet is right?With steady growth, the multiple discount vs peers could narrow too. Re-rating to peer levels (0.8x–1.3x EV/revenue) from 0.3x could also happen as profitability improves.[00:40:00] What is the OTHER SIDE of the bet? Management may invest heavily, hurting near-term FCF. Credit covenants may linger. CEO could have a conservative stance out of the gate on the 4Q guide. [00:45:00] Is management ALIGNED with ownership? Jim Barber’s equity was granted post last quarter’s miss, guide pull, and dividend cut. He has a good starting point.— — — —Episode partner:💡Powered by AlphaSense. For complimentary access to their earnings tools and expert call library, visit: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/— — — —Follow Pitch The PM:🔗 LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 🐦 X: x.com/PitchThePM 📸 Linktree: Linktree 📩 Subscribe: pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribeNot Investment Advice. Doug owns VSTS and is biased.

A deep dive into Zoom reveals its potential as an undervalued tech player. The discussion highlights a strong balance sheet with $7B in cash and a shift towards a sticky UCaaS platform. The conversation emphasizes the importance of product innovation and AI in driving future growth. Evaluating competitive pressures, the hosts explore the mispricing in Zoom's stock and its transition amidst market skepticism. Insights into employee satisfaction and stock dilution challenges offer a well-rounded view of the company's landscape.

In this episode of Pitch the PM, Doug welcomes Mark Layton, CFO of Mammoth Energy Services (NASDAQ: TUSK), to explore one of his highest conviction investment ideas and his first of twenty lifetime “Buffett punchcard” investments. This small cap company ($132 MM market cap) is valued below cash levels ($150 MM) with the market giving the company no credit for its existing businesses or underutilized equipment that was recently valued at $145 MM by an independent appraiser. The company recently exited its largest industrial business for $110 MM (more than 3x MOIC), has its land drilling rigs held for sale and subsequent to the recording of this episode sold its frac assets for $15 MM. Mammoth, with the help of its largest shareholder - Wexford, is targeting 25-35% unlevered IRR’s in the aviation rental space where it has a robust pipeline. The company is also incubating its engineering, fiber, and rental equipment businesses. Doug views this as a private equity investment in a public shell without the fees. - Growing the rental business. Mammoth has oilfield rental equipment and helicopters in the portfolio and in April 2025 they purchased 8 airplane. Seeing deal flow through Wexford with unlevered IRR’s at 25-35%.- TUSK is in a void in the capital markets and it resembles a private equity company in a public shell. - 2024 was the worst year for natural gas. Historical presence in the Marcellus and Utica from the co-investment of Gulfport and Wexford to form the initial frac company. 6 frac spreads in total, but lack sufficient scale [Note: Mammoth sold their frac equipment on June 16, 2025]. - View capital allocation like a private equity shop.- Accommodations was its own segment after the IPO, it has done well. Formed by Wexford in 2006/07. Renewed interest in the oil sands. Looking at investments there that can increase the room rates. Have a good leader there and has generated steady FCF. Used this unit for Puerto Rico housing.- Opportunity for expansion into construction. Returns are mid to high teens, unlevered.- Engineering and fiber businesses — Built the businesses around the leaders. As we look at incubating the Engineering business, it should trade for low to mid double digits EBITDA multiple. Fiber has taken a little longer to ramp up, but government funds are starting to hit the market. Can potentially do acquisitions as fiber is fragmented- Grow rental business in OFS and aircraft. Aircraft are the most attractive. Continue to evaluate the remote accommodations business. Firm up the fiber business. - Wexford’s waived consulting fee and provides access to deal flow without the $500,000 fee as they own 47%. Thoughtful patient investors.Links:📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe💡 This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Use the link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 Mark Layton: https://www.linkedin.com/in/markelaytonMammoth Energy Services: https://www.mammothenergy.com/*Not Investment Advice

In this episode of Pitch The PM, host Doug Garber sits down with Adam Parker, founder of Trivariate Research, to discuss one of the market’s most buzzed-about stocks—Palantir (PLTR). Parker brings a sobering view of why PLTR’s irrational valuation could be set to crack on a significant index rebalance.  After increasing over five fold over the last year and reaching a market cap of over $300 billion, PLTR is slated to be removed from the Russell mid-cap index where it is over an 8% weight.  The discussion spans index rebalancing mechanics, passive investing distortions, and what it means when a $300B+ company is still classified as a mid-cap. Tune in to understand how supply and demand stock mismatches—rather than company fundamentals—can potentially drive stock prices.____________________________________________________________[00:00:0] 1. What ACTION do I want the Portfolio Manager to take?Sell or short PLTR.Parker argues it's the most overvalued stock he's seen in his multi-decade career and believes the risk-reward skews heavily negative in the short term due to index rebalancing.[00:04:34] 2. Do I UNDERSTAND this business?Parker admits he isn’t a fundamental expert on Palantir’s operations but understands the key drivers of its valuation—mainly government contracts, AI positioning, and retail enthusiasm.[00:05:21] 3. Is the stock available at a REASONABLE price today?No. He emphasizes that PLTR  trades at an extreme multiple of future revenue, with enterprise value/sales far above any rational historical benchmark.[00:06:39] 4. Why is this stock MIS-PRICED?Because of index fund mechanics, “forced” buying from mid-cap PMs, strong retail momentum,  exposure to the AI theme and government contracts.  [00:12:22] 5. What is the VARIANT VIEW vs the street?Most investors are buying due to momentum or index requirements or risk-management (to own at least part of a large index component). Parker’s view is rooted in historical data: no company of Palantir’s size has ever grown fast enough to justify such a valuation.[00:13:05] 6. What is the EVIDENCE?Historical analysis of EV/revenue multiples and historical growth comparisons. Palantir’s implied growth rate is historically unprecedented for a company of its size.[00:17:05] 7. What are the CATALYSTS for the street to realize the view?The June 28 Russell rebalance, where Palantir will be removed from mid-cap indexes. This will likely trigger large-scale forced selling, especially from passive and mid-cap growth funds.[00:25:38] 8. What is it WORTH if the bet is right?If PLTR re-rates to the second most expensive company instead of the first, Parker estimates a 50% downside—possibly more if sentiment shifts.[00:26:59] 9. What is the OTHER SIDE of the bet?Continued retail inflows, AI enthusiasm, government contract momentum, or a broad market rally could keep the stock elevated or even push it higher. Parker discusses MSTR and APP as possible hedges to isolate the negative impact of the PLTR index imbalance.[00:34:28] 10. Is management ALIGNED with ownership?To some degree—CEO Alex Karp holds around $1 billion in stock, but the company is also heavily owned by large passive managers. Parker sees no immediate red flags but also doesn’t weigh alignment heavily in this short thesis.Learn more about the Russell mid-cap index: HERE💡 This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Use the link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/Links:Trivector Research: https://trivariateresearch.com/Adam Parker: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-parker-759542179📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribeDoug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 Disclosure:This is not Investment Advice. Speakers in the episode may have positions in the securities discussed and are under no obligation to inform you of any changes.

Welcome back to another episode of Pitch the PM. In this episode, Doug speaks with biotech expert, Sriker Nadipuram from Critical Value Asset Management, about Jazz Pharmaceuticals Although outside Doug’s typical investment lane, the conversation highlights shared frameworks and rigorous research methodologies. Sriker unpacks Jazz’s business model, detailing its base business in neurology and the high-potential oncology pipeline. They examine the firm’s risk-reward setup, political uncertainty from tariffs and drug pricing, and why the market may be overlooking a potentially transformational oncology outcome in 2H’25. Tune in to learn more about JAZZ’s value proposition amid healthcare uncertainty.*Not Investment Advice.  Chapters:[00:00:00] What ACTION do I want the Portfolio Manager to take?Waiting on tax uncertainty for Irish-domiciled company to clear despite compelling fundamental oncology clinical catalyst opportunityJAZZ framed with $15 downside vs. $70–80 of upside potential with clinical success.[00:10:38] Do I UNDERSTAND this business?Sriker is an expert in biotech with extensive training and experience.  Breakdown of Jazz’s neurology and epilepsy base, including Xyrem/Xywav and Epidiolex.Outside of Doug’s circle of competence. No position. Difficult to form a view on the potential impact of drug pricing, taxes and the clinical outcome. Although, Sriker does provide a rational view for the clinical outcome being partially de-risked and the potential value uplift to JAZZ.[00:22:43] Is the stock available at a REASONABLE price today?Striker’s valuation view shows the stock is undervalued even without pipeline contributions at a 5x 2026 P/E.They discuss that DCF valuation is front-loaded with little terminal value due to the patent expiring eventually. [00:27:54] Why is this stock MIS-PRICED?Jazz is wrongly lumped with speculative biopharma names despite durable earnings.Generalists are avoiding the space due to uncertainty around drug pricing. JAZZ also has earnings uncertainty due to its Irish domicile.[00:29:07] What is the VARIANT VIEW vs the street? Generalists have exited biopharma.Sriker sees a solid base valuation from existing portfolio and a potential clinical catalyst that is being overlooked due to the lack of interest in the biotech space. [00:36:40] What is the EVIDENCE?Sriker outlines research methods including AlphaSense transcripts and expert networks that build on top of his education in pharmaceuticals and investment experience. [00:39:05] What are the CATALYSTS for the street to realize my view?A Phase 3 gastric cancer trial readout expected in H2 2025 could be positive for JAZZ. Clarity on Irish domiciled tax policies and drug pricing changes.[00:49:42] What is it WORTH if the bet is right?Sriker sees potential upside to ~$180+ based on projected oncology sales and expanded FCF.[00:51:09] What is the OTHER SIDE of the bet?Risks include clinical trial failure, generic pressure, and political/macro headwinds.[00:56:08] Is management ALIGNED with ownership?No buybacks/dividends, but capital is reinvested in pipeline with proven operational execution.Episode partner: 💡 This episode is powered by AlphaSense. Use our link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/▶️ More Episodes:BNED: 3x Return Potential Post Recap https://youtu.be/P6xy67DtqQ4?si=S7RyvfnPceYAmJGxZM: Growth Acceleration, A Catalyst https://youtu.be/D8THaDUBkTA?si=gKYXfFLL6nLUVnucPOOL: Reverse Engineering Berkshire’s POOL Investment: Buying a Great Company in a Lull https://youtu.be/190LgD6BdmQ?si=2rRej5lAdh4RLa0sNVDA: As Good As it Gets: https://youtu.be/x8gJ8ElyUlM?si=ETW2jhfPsWJ_wD0RFollow Pitch The PM:LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508X: https://x.com/PitchThePMInstagram: https://www.instagram.com📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe

Pitch The PM Live Doug Garber breaks down his thesis on the future of NVIDIA using his Variant View checklist. He draws on insights from his recent episode with Gil Luria and incorporates real-time analytics from our show sponsors 5 key points discussed:✅ Customer capex from a couple Big Tech customers is flattening out sequentially and that should make it hard for NVDA to continue to beat already high expectations for +$4B of QoQ revenue growth. The debate is how much will others absorb?✅ The S+D for GPU's is already seeing PRICING pressure in the rent by the hour market - the canary in the coal mine?✅ Increased competition from customer chips and Chinese chips should erode market share and margins in the medium-term✅ The underlying GPU customer economics appear unsupported by returns and are being driven by an "Arms Race" mentality that could become fragile with declining stock prices recently✅ The reduced NVDA valuation implies some bad news is being discounted. We use a reverse-DCF to dig-in here.— — — —Thanks to FinTool and InSync Analytics for sponsoring this webinar. Use this link to access a complimentary free trial: https://fintool.com/?utm_source=pitchthePM📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts. https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe— — — —Chapters:00:00 – Introduction & Webinar Overview02:15 – Doug Garber’s Background & Investment Philosophy05:40 – NVIDIA's Position, Management Signals, & Investment Framework09:00 – Bull vs. Bear: Framing the Debate on NVDA20:15 – Supply, Demand, and Competitive Landscape31:05 – Market Expectations, Pricing Trends & Cyclical Risks41:00 – Capital Allocation, Big Tech CapEx & Future Catalysts57:50 – Q&A: On Shorts, CapEx, Demand Cycles & More— — — —▶️ MORE EPISODES:NVDA: As Good As It Gets https://youtu.be/x8gJ8ElyUlMPOOL: Reverse Engineering Berkshire’s POOL Investment: Buying a Great Company in a Lull https://youtu.be/190LgD6BdmQ?si=2rRej5lAdh4RLa0sZM: Growth Acceleration, A Catalyst https://youtu.be/D8THaDUBkTA?si=gKYXfFLL6nLUVnucBNED: 3x Return Potential Post Recap https://youtu.be/P6xy67DtqQ4?si=S7RyvfnPceYAmJGxFollow Pitch The PM:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/pitch-the-pmX: https://x.com/PitchThePMYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@PitchThePM— — — —Not Investment Advice. For Educational Purposes. See disclaimers at PitchThePM.com

Doug Garber, a former analyst at Citadel and portfolio manager at Millennium, discusses the evolving landscape of portfolio management. He emphasizes the significance of process over mere predictions in achieving investment success. Garber shares insights on building a strong signal amid market noise and what sets successful candidates apart in the competitive job market. He also tackles the role of rigorous research in hedge funds and debates the true potential of AI investments in today's economy.

In this insightful discussion, Gil Luria, the Head of Technology Research at D.A. Davidson, brings over 25 years of experience to the table as he analyzes Nvidia's trajectory. He dives into the current GPU cycle, spotlighting the competition and market shifts in AI hardware spending. The conversation reveals possible declines in Nvidia's revenue and how major clients like Microsoft are reassessing their strategies. Gil critiques Wall Street’s growth expectations while exploring the sustainability of rising capital expenditures across tech giants.

In addition to presenting high-conviction investment ideas, we also reverse engineer great investors’ theses to improve our process. Pool Corp. has a leading position in a good industry and has demonstrated the ability to consistently grow FCF/share in the mid-teens with a high ROIC. The current post-COVID pool industry downturn has led to negative sentiment, and long-term investors of great companies such as Berkshire see this as an opportunity to buy a great company at a “fair” price. We use a reverse DCF to impute that consensus expects FCF to grow in the mid-single digits, which is below historical levels. While it is unclear if the pool industry is “out of the woods” yet based on expert network channel checks from AlphaSense, it is likely based on peer ‘25 revenue growth commentary that Pool Corp. might envision a return to low single-digit growth in 2025 as consensus expects (+3.4%). This might cause some of the remaining 2.6 MM (7% of float) shares short (down from 4.4 MM shares in 2023) to abandon their thesis. Earnings revisions will be the key.— — — — — — — —Episode partners: 💡 This episode is powered by AlphaSense. Use our link here for Complimentary access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/👉Want the full model from today’s episode built by our Dedicated Analyst Team at InSync Analytics? Email: learn@pitchthePM.com— — — — — — — —Berkshire’s Investment Checklist: 00:00 Intro05:02 Is this business in my CIRCLE OF COMPETENCE? Yes, I covered the pool industry as a PM at Millennium, and it’s a relatively simple business to understand.06:28 What is the MARGIN OF SAFETY?No replacement value or BV support. Good business as measured by ROIC and FCF and a leading position in a good industry where scale has advantages.10:00 Is the stock available BELOW INTRINSIC VALUE?No, the stock seems fully valued at a 4% unlevered FCF yield.What is Berkshire’s Potential VARIANT VIEW?Berkshire likely thinks the company can get back to mid-teens FCF/share growth per historical trends vs the implied consensus of mid-single digit growth.17:28 Does the business operate in a GOOD INDUSTRY?Yes, the pool distribution business is a good industry. It is mostly recurring revenue and asset light.19:55 Is this a BAD, GOOD, or GREAT BUSINESS?Great business at an “almost fair price” in a post-COVID downturn.21:36 Does the business have a WIDE MOAT?The company has constantly generated excess ROIC and has advantages in its store locations being near customer pool routes, in being the largest buyer from manufacturers to obtain procurement discounts, in having a large footprint to optimize inventory management, and a leading tech interface for customers.24:11 Are management INCENTIVE ALIGNED?Yes, management is compensated on ROIC and EPS growth.28:18 Is this one of your 20 lifetime PUNCH CARDS?No, it is not one of my lifetime 20 investments.— — — — — — — —▶️ MORE EPISODES:BNED: 3x Return Potential Post Recap https://youtu.be/P6xy67DtqQ4?si=S7RyvfnPceYAmJGxZM: Growth Acceleration, A Catalyst https://youtu.be/D8THaDUBkTA?si=gKYXfFLL6nLUVnu— — — — — — — —Follow Pitch The PM:📩 Subscribe to our Newsletter for more high-conviction research, quarterly research updates, the research pipeline, and the job board:https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe🎧 Listen to the episodes here:https://spotifycreators-web.app.link/e/GZFTproPLQbYoutube:https://www.youtube.com/@PitchThePMLinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508/X:https://x.com/PitchThePM— — — — — — — —Thank you for tuning in. We would be grateful for your comment or like!⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes. It is not investment advice. Contact your financial advisor for suitable investments for you.