Pitch The PM

In this Alpha Sense sponsored webinar, we discuss how AI’s power demand is rewriting the energy equation.What started as a “data problem” has become an energy story — and few people have thought more deeply about that intersection than Arjun Murti, former Goldman Partner and author of Super-Spiked.Together, we unpacked:- How data centers consistent energy requirements are changing natural gas markets and the energy transition- Whether oil’s “durable demand” is misunderstood and where we are in the oil cycle- How the energy transition is creating both constraints and investment opportunitiesThis isn’t a conversation you want to miss. Watch on-demand now.*Not investment advice*Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribeThis is an Alpha Sense webinar. For a complimentary trial click the link below: https://www.alpha-sense.com/pitch/

Doug Garber, a former Citadel analyst and now CIO of Westport Alpha Group, shares insights from his experiences at two top hedge fund platforms. He contrasts Citadel's structured, feedback-rich environment with Millennium's entrepreneurial, decentralized pods. Topics include the importance of grit over pedigree, how sell-side training prepares analysts, and the fundamentals of long/short equity investing. Garber also reveals what traits make a great analyst, the management of pressure and emotional intensity, and his personal journey towards work-life balance.

In this conversation, Doug sits down with Sinan Xin, managing partner at Amber Road, to discuss the “lost art” of international investing and dive deep on Nebius ($NBIS) — a misunderstood name in the global AI infrastructure ecosystem. Sinan has followed the company since its spinout from Yandex and built a position around $25 post-relisting earlier this year. Here he explains why Nebius now represents 10% of his fund.They unpack Nebius’ origins inside “Russia’s Google,” its transformation into a neutral global AI compute provider, and the overlooked value of its 28% stake in ClickHouse. The discussion covers how Nebius differs from peers like CoreWeave, what investors miss about its payback economics, and why Sinan believes the market is overlooking a potential $200 stock hiding in plain sight.1. Action:Maintain a core long in Nebius (NBIS). Keep it as a top-three holding given its asymmetric setup, global customers, and accelerating AI infrastructure growth.2. Understanding:Nebius operates an AI infrastructure-as-a-service platform spun out from Yandex. It builds and rents compute, storage, and networking capacity (like AWS or CoreWeave) and owns 28% of ClickHouse — a fast-growing open-source database. Customers include Tesla, Anthropic, ByteDance, MercadoLibre, and Microsoft.3. Valuation:At ~$125–130, the stock trades near 15x implied earnings power, discounting a 10% ROIC versus management’s 25–40% long-term goal. A four-year payback supports a ~$200/share valuation with ~30% downside to $85. No premium is priced for platform optionality.4. Mispricing:Investors overreact to “Russian risk,” missing that the firm is now based in Western Europe and Israel. Skepticism around GPU depreciation also clouds sentiment. The market overlooks:Global neutrality (can serve U.S., EU, and EM customers)ClickHouse stake worth near the entire EVSoftware-driven margin expansion5. Variant View:The Street views Nebius as a capital-heavy GPU host. Sinan views it as a technology company, not a leasing business. With software heritage and higher-margin products (ClickHouse, ML ops, AI APIs), Nebius should earn AWS-like ROIC, not colocation-style returns.6. Evidence:Global contracts with Microsoft, Anthropic, and TeslaClickHouse stake last valued near $6B; next raise likely $20B+Added U.S.-based execs to scale go-to-market40%+ utilization growth; payback trending to 3 years1,300 engineers from Yandex — proven technical base7. Catalysts:Next ClickHouse funding round and potential monetizationNew hyperscaler or enterprise partnershipsIndex inclusion and rising institutional ownershipDisclosure of improving ROIC and payback metricsRecognition that Nebius is an AI software platform8. Upside:Base case $200/share (~60% upside); bull case $220–250 if ClickHouse valuation rises and incremental capacity earns 25%+ ROIC — assuming no multiple expansion.9. Risks:GPU cost compression, political or regulatory backlash, deployment delays, or overestimation of ClickHouse profitability.10. Alignment:Founders and early engineers hold significant equity. Management is equity-compensated and performance-driven, with a culture of technologists, not financiers.Subscribe for more research updates and high-conviction episodes from top PMs & analysts:https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe

In this episode of Pitch the PM, Doug Garber sits down with Jeff Geygan, CEO of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF), and Carrie Cass, the company’s CFO, to discuss how they’re rebuilding one of America’s most recognizable confectionery brands.The conversation goes far beyond chocolate — it’s a candid look at what real operational transformation looks like inside a small-cap public company.They cover:The steps taken to stabilize operations and rebuild cultureWhy data, ERP, and POS systems were the foundation for changePlans to expand east of the Mississippi and revitalize store growthManaging costs, margins, and franchisee relationships in a higher-rate environmentLessons from taking a “Wall Street to Main Street” approach to leadershipDoug also explores the investment lens — from the company’s long history and competitive set (including Kilwins) to the balancing act between leverage, growth, and execution risk.“This has been more than a turnaround. It’s a transformation. We’re big enough to execute — small enough to move fast.” — Jeff, CEO, RMCF🎧 Listen if you’re interested in:Turnarounds and small-cap operating playbooksHow management teams rebuild trust and cultureFranchise economics and capital disciplineThe realities of running a consumer business through a transformationChapters:(0:00) — Intro: Betting on chocolate(2:35) — RMCF’s footprint and business model(7:01) — Operational reset: from ERP to culture(10:35) — Rebuilding the franchise network(15:47) — Store economics and ROI targets(16:49) — Comparing RMCF and Kilwins valuations(21:41) — Product mix, margins, and brand positioning(29:50) — Managing cocoa price volatility(38:02) — Balance sheet and deleveraging priorities(42:57) — Leadership lessons: culture, curiosity, and execution(48:26) — Closing thoughts: “10x or zero”🔗 LinksThis episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Use the link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribeDoug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 🛑 DisclaimerThis conversation is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The participants may have positions in securities mentioned and are under no obligation to update their views. Please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Jonathan Kasen spent over a decade as a portfolio manager at Fidelity, analyzing industrial and energy companies through the lens of four key elements: organic growth, operating leverage, free cash flow conversion, and reinvestment opportunities. Today, he’s applying those same principles to his latest venture: chocolate.In this episode of Pitch The PM, Jonathan joins Doug Garber to talk about his journey from Wall Street to small business ownership. They dive deep into what makes a great compounder—public or private—and how Buffett’s See’s Candies investment and a shaky car ride with the Oracle himself helped shape Kasen’s thinking. Choosing a great industry like chocolate is a good start and then management execution is the key to compounding. Kasen’s blueprint at Hillard’s is similar to See’s Candies regional strategy decades ago. 💡 A big thank you to StreetAccount by FactSet for sponsoring this episode. Stay plugged in to key news from your entire watch list all in one place with StreetAccount. 📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribeDoug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 Not Investment Advice.

Welcome back to another episode of Pitch The PM. In this conversation, Doug reconnects with former Citadel colleague, Yuri Gelfman, for a deep dive on Fastenal ($FAST), a core name in the industrial distribution space. Yuri brings over a decade of coverage experience and shares why, despite Fastenal’s reputation as a high-quality compounder, the stock’s recent move to ~40x forward earnings looks stretched. They walk through the company’s evolution from branch-led growth to vending and on-site inventory management, why those growth engines may be plateauing, and how mean reversion on valuation could play out as comps normalize. Along the way, Yuri outlines the KPIs he tracks, the catalysts that matter, and the risks to his variant view. What ACTION do I want the Portfolio Manager to take? Sell or short FAST. A high-quality industrial distributor, but the multiple (~40x forward EPS) has run far ahead of fundamentals, with vending/on-site growth engines slowing.Do I UNDERSTAND this business? Yes. Covered FAST for 10+ years with multiple management meetings. Distributor of fasteners (~30% of mix), safety (~20%+), tools, and MRO products. ~85% U.S. sales, core end markets in machinery, fabricated metals, and primary metals. Growth shifted from branches to vending/on-site inventory management.Is the stock available at a REASONABLE price today? No. FAST trades at ~40x 2026 EPS vs a long-term average of 24–27x, despite lower growth prospects ahead.Why is this stock MIS-PRICED? Street extrapolated short-term YoY sales acceleration (2–3% in Jan → 12–13% by July) and bid up the stock. But on a 3-yr stack, growth has held flat (~17–18%). Market also lumped FAST in with industrial re-acceleration plays and “quality compounder” sentiment.What is the VARIANT VIEW vs the street? Street sees momentum and durable vending growth. Variant view: vending productivity growth has collapsed (+24% CAGR 2014–22 → +5% in 2023 → –3% in 2024) and vending install growth is slowing (guidance cut to ~25.5k from 29k). With vending plateauing and mix shifting to lower-margin categories, FAST can’t justify a 40x multiple.What is the EVIDENCE? Company disclosures: vending install and productivity KPIs, monthly sales, and gross margin data. June +9.8% YoY, July +12.8%, Aug +11.8% — but on a 3-yr stack: Q1 16.8%, Q2 17.0%, Jul 17.5%, Aug 18.3% = no true acceleration. Branch-based revenue CAGR only ~2.5% over the last decade.What are the CATALYSTS for the street to realize the view? Monthly sales releases (stock dropped 4%+ on Aug miss), quarterly earnings, vending KPI deterioration, gross margin pressure from mix shift to large customers and safety SKUs.What is it WORTH if the bet is right? Near term (6–9 months): low-30s P/E multiple, implying ~20–25% downside. Medium term: if vending slowdown proves structural, sub-20x multiple is possible, EPS CAGR just 2–4%, suggesting 40–50% downside.What is the OTHER SIDE of the bet? Management execution could reinvigorate vending/on-site strategy, or industrial short-cycle recovery could extend momentum. Strong cultural alignment and historical execution track record may keep the multiple elevated longer.Is management ALIGNED with ownership? Yes. Incentives tied to gross profit growth and SG&A control. Long-tenured management team, significant stock ownership. No red flags on alignment.💡 This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Use the link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribeDoug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 Not Investment Advice. At the time of initial episode publication, the host had a short position in FAST. This may change at any time and there is no obligation to update you. 

The AI Capex Super-Cycle is well underway. We dive deep with Doug O'Laughlin, the President of SemiAnalysis - the leading field level industry experts and Michelle Brophy, the TMT DoR at AlphaSense. Watch the webinar now: https://lnkd.in/eUat9NyuIn this AlphaSense sponsored webinar we dive into all the key debates and which companies and products are winning across the entire AI Capex ecosystem. The SemiAnalysis team goes to 85 industry level conferences a year to get the inside scoop. From Hypersaclers, Neoclouds, Semi's, to E&C's and Industrial Manufacturers anything downstream of AI capex is what is working. And the capital markets are WIDE OPEN on the DCM, ECM and the largest customers, the hyperscalers, are continuing to revise capex higher each quarter to win this race.In the webinar we dive into:- What will $NVDA's market share be in a few years? - What is the real differentiator of the CUDA system?- Why $CRWV is winning? - Is $GOOG the next IBM?- What is the opportunity for the TPU and other chips?- We build on our Hydra Host episode with Aaron Ginn to discuss how the U.S. wins vs China in the AI race.- What is the rate (and thus economic life) of a GPU after a few years?- How the shift to inference from training is impacting companies?- And even dig into the benefits of using copper in the chips. Disclosures:*Not Investment Advice. **I have evened out my AI exposure to META vs NVDA. (Thesis is not a call on timing the AI cycle, but a relative value way to play the company that is able to improve their ecosystem returns and customer experience vs a company that is currently generating most of the industry rent that has a history of being cyclical)

Welcome to Pitch The PM, where host Doug Garber is joined by Aaron Ginn, CEO and Co-founder at Hydra Host.— — — —In this episode, Doug Garber and Aaron Ginn to unpack the forces reshaping the global AI infrastructure stack. They dive deep into Nvidia’s growing dominance and explore how CEO Jensen Huang is building an ecosystem designed to sideline the hyperscalers, financing their destruction while capturing more of the value chain.Aaron breaks down the shift from public cloud to bare metal, the margin squeeze facing Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, and why GPU infrastructure, not models or software, is now the real bottleneck. The episode also explores the emerging spot market for compute, the evolving ROI math for data centers, and why neoclouds are gaining ground as hyperscaler credibility erodes.From regionalization and reshoring to export controls and geopolitical leverage, this conversation goes beyond semis and into the future of economic power in the AI era.See below for episode disclosures.— — — —Aaron Ginn is the Co-Founder and CEO of Hydra Host, a fast-growing infrastructure company building the largest GPU management platform in the world. Hydra provides a fully automated, API-driven system for monetizing GPU and CPU infrastructure, streamlining bare metal deployment at scale. Before founding Hydra, Aaron co-founded the Lincoln Network (now Foundation for American Innovation) and Fabius Labs, with a focus on bridging technology, policy, and product design. He has over a decade of experience in tech, spanning product, engineering, and digital growth. His work has been featured in outlets including The Wall Street Journal, TechCrunch, and Wired.— — — —📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts. ⁠https://lnkd.in/ekkxjp6z⁠Episode partner: AlphaSenseKeep our content free, and please consider supporting our sponsors. They are essential in helping us do our deep-dive research.💡 This episode is powered by AlphaSense. Use our link here for Complimentary access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/— — — —Chapters:[00:00] – Intro & Hydrahost’s Origin Story[03:07] – The Evolution of Data Centers & AI Infrastructure.[08:49] – Nvidia's Role & Shifting Market Power[14:47] – The Decline of Traditional Cloud[20:54] – The Competitive Landscape. Google, Amazon, and the bundling tactics shaping GPU access. [24:01] – Geopolitics & Digital Infrastructure[37:34] – ROI & GPU Utilization Strategies[43:36] – Market Liquidity & Pricing Dynamics[53:23] – Capital Models & Financial Engineering GPU resale, and payback strategies.[58:01]- China’s Huawei push, Nvidia’s ecosystem defense, and infrastructure land grabs.▶️ MORE VARIANT VIEW EPISODES:NVDA: As Good As It Gets: https://youtu.be/x8gJ8ElyUlM?si=pRlRnhrH6Hknp9zUTUSK: Cigar Butt Morphing into a Compounder: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0mF5WK91oc&t=396sFollow Pitch The PM:LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508X: https://x.com/PitchThePMSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5— — — —⚠️ Not Investment Advice. For Educational Purposes. See disclaimers at PitchThePM.com

Welcome back to another episode of Pitch The PM. In this episode, Doug Garber flips roles and steps in as the analyst pitching Vestis Corporation (VSTS)—a recent spin-out, route-based industrial with a new CEO taking the helm after missteps from the initial CEO. Former SAC PM Hugh Anderson plays the part of portfolio manager, dissecting the thesis and poking holes in the evidence. Together they examine whether the business is broken or simply sandbagged, if re-aligning the sales force incentives by limiting credits can drive margin recovery, and whether new CEO Jim Barber (former UPS COO) can execute a Cintas-style transformation. With short interest high and expectations low, is this a compelling special situation or a value trap?— — — —Get Doug’s version of the Earnings Preview Checklist: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/p/vsts-sanbagged-guide-new-ceo-s-turnaround-plan-could-be-a-catalyst-high-short-interestChapters:[00:00:00] What ACTION do I want the Portfolio Manager to take? Doug owns VSTS ahead of what he believes is an underappreciated Q3 setup, driven by sandbagged guidance, a new CEO presenting a turnaround plan. He is bias, so do your own research.[00:03:40] Do I UNDERSTAND this business? Doug draws on his industrial’s experience from Citadel and Millennium, and lays out VSTS’s core model—route-based delivery of uniforms and business supplies—and how its execution compares to peers like Cintas and UniFirst.[00:10:50] Is the stock available at a REASONABLE price today?VSTS trades at ~8x EV/EBITDA vs. Cintas at 29x. Doug argues valuation is fair for a fixer-upper and notes that upside lies in earnings revisions, not rerating.[00:12:55] Why is this stock MIS-PRICED?Street views VSTS as broken due to management stumbles, two major guidance cuts, and high leverage. Doug sees it as a speed bump, not a structural issue.[00:14:50] What is the VARIANT VIEW vs the street?Doug believes recent underperformance and sandbagging have lowered the bar, setting up a potential beat. The April run-rate already matched December’s, suggesting Q3 upside.[00:18:00] What is the EVIDENCE?The last conference call lays out the rebound in sales back to December levels in April. Plus, the excessive narrative on credits helps explain the high decremental margins during the recent shortfall. [00:25:00] What are the CATALYSTS for the street to realize my view?A Q3 beat followed by a Q4 guide above consensus could lead to higher earnings revisions and thus a higher stock price. Plus, the CEO’s turnaround plan could be positive. And there is high-short interest.[00:34:00] What is it WORTH if the bet is right?With steady growth, the multiple discount vs peers could narrow too. Re-rating to peer levels (0.8x–1.3x EV/revenue) from 0.3x could also happen as profitability improves.[00:40:00] What is the OTHER SIDE of the bet? Management may invest heavily, hurting near-term FCF. Credit covenants may linger. CEO could have a conservative stance out of the gate on the 4Q guide. [00:45:00] Is management ALIGNED with ownership? Jim Barber’s equity was granted post last quarter’s miss, guide pull, and dividend cut. He has a good starting point.— — — —Episode partner:💡Powered by AlphaSense. For complimentary access to their earnings tools and expert call library, visit: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/— — — —Follow Pitch The PM:🔗 LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 🐦 X: x.com/PitchThePM 📸 Linktree: Linktree 📩 Subscribe: pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribeNot Investment Advice. Doug owns VSTS and is biased.

A deep dive into Zoom reveals its potential as an undervalued tech player. The discussion highlights a strong balance sheet with $7B in cash and a shift towards a sticky UCaaS platform. The conversation emphasizes the importance of product innovation and AI in driving future growth. Evaluating competitive pressures, the hosts explore the mispricing in Zoom's stock and its transition amidst market skepticism. Insights into employee satisfaction and stock dilution challenges offer a well-rounded view of the company's landscape.