Pitch The PM

Welcome back to another episode of Pitch the PM. In this episode, Doug speaks with biotech expert, Sriker Nadipuram from Critical Value Asset Management, about Jazz Pharmaceuticals Although outside Doug’s typical investment lane, the conversation highlights shared frameworks and rigorous research methodologies. Sriker unpacks Jazz’s business model, detailing its base business in neurology and the high-potential oncology pipeline. They examine the firm’s risk-reward setup, political uncertainty from tariffs and drug pricing, and why the market may be overlooking a potentially transformational oncology outcome in 2H’25. Tune in to learn more about JAZZ’s value proposition amid healthcare uncertainty.*Not Investment Advice.  Chapters:[00:00:00] What ACTION do I want the Portfolio Manager to take?Waiting on tax uncertainty for Irish-domiciled company to clear despite compelling fundamental oncology clinical catalyst opportunityJAZZ framed with $15 downside vs. $70–80 of upside potential with clinical success.[00:10:38] Do I UNDERSTAND this business?Sriker is an expert in biotech with extensive training and experience.  Breakdown of Jazz’s neurology and epilepsy base, including Xyrem/Xywav and Epidiolex.Outside of Doug’s circle of competence. No position. Difficult to form a view on the potential impact of drug pricing, taxes and the clinical outcome. Although, Sriker does provide a rational view for the clinical outcome being partially de-risked and the potential value uplift to JAZZ.[00:22:43] Is the stock available at a REASONABLE price today?Striker’s valuation view shows the stock is undervalued even without pipeline contributions at a 5x 2026 P/E.They discuss that DCF valuation is front-loaded with little terminal value due to the patent expiring eventually. [00:27:54] Why is this stock MIS-PRICED?Jazz is wrongly lumped with speculative biopharma names despite durable earnings.Generalists are avoiding the space due to uncertainty around drug pricing. JAZZ also has earnings uncertainty due to its Irish domicile.[00:29:07] What is the VARIANT VIEW vs the street? Generalists have exited biopharma.Sriker sees a solid base valuation from existing portfolio and a potential clinical catalyst that is being overlooked due to the lack of interest in the biotech space. [00:36:40] What is the EVIDENCE?Sriker outlines research methods including AlphaSense transcripts and expert networks that build on top of his education in pharmaceuticals and investment experience. [00:39:05] What are the CATALYSTS for the street to realize my view?A Phase 3 gastric cancer trial readout expected in H2 2025 could be positive for JAZZ. Clarity on Irish domiciled tax policies and drug pricing changes.[00:49:42] What is it WORTH if the bet is right?Sriker sees potential upside to ~$180+ based on projected oncology sales and expanded FCF.[00:51:09] What is the OTHER SIDE of the bet?Risks include clinical trial failure, generic pressure, and political/macro headwinds.[00:56:08] Is management ALIGNED with ownership?No buybacks/dividends, but capital is reinvested in pipeline with proven operational execution.Episode partner: 💡 This episode is powered by AlphaSense. Use our link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/▶️ More Episodes:BNED: 3x Return Potential Post Recap https://youtu.be/P6xy67DtqQ4?si=S7RyvfnPceYAmJGxZM: Growth Acceleration, A Catalyst https://youtu.be/D8THaDUBkTA?si=gKYXfFLL6nLUVnucPOOL: Reverse Engineering Berkshire’s POOL Investment: Buying a Great Company in a Lull https://youtu.be/190LgD6BdmQ?si=2rRej5lAdh4RLa0sNVDA: As Good As it Gets: https://youtu.be/x8gJ8ElyUlM?si=ETW2jhfPsWJ_wD0RFollow Pitch The PM:LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508X: https://x.com/PitchThePMInstagram: https://www.instagram.com📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe

Pitch The PM Live Doug Garber breaks down his thesis on the future of NVIDIA using his Variant View checklist. He draws on insights from his recent episode with Gil Luria and incorporates real-time analytics from our show sponsors 5 key points discussed:✅ Customer capex from a couple Big Tech customers is flattening out sequentially and that should make it hard for NVDA to continue to beat already high expectations for +$4B of QoQ revenue growth. The debate is how much will others absorb?✅ The S+D for GPU's is already seeing PRICING pressure in the rent by the hour market - the canary in the coal mine?✅ Increased competition from customer chips and Chinese chips should erode market share and margins in the medium-term✅ The underlying GPU customer economics appear unsupported by returns and are being driven by an "Arms Race" mentality that could become fragile with declining stock prices recently✅ The reduced NVDA valuation implies some bad news is being discounted. We use a reverse-DCF to dig-in here.— — — —Thanks to FinTool and InSync Analytics for sponsoring this webinar. Use this link to access a complimentary free trial: https://fintool.com/?utm_source=pitchthePM📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts. https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe— — — —Chapters:00:00 – Introduction & Webinar Overview02:15 – Doug Garber’s Background & Investment Philosophy05:40 – NVIDIA's Position, Management Signals, & Investment Framework09:00 – Bull vs. Bear: Framing the Debate on NVDA20:15 – Supply, Demand, and Competitive Landscape31:05 – Market Expectations, Pricing Trends & Cyclical Risks41:00 – Capital Allocation, Big Tech CapEx & Future Catalysts57:50 – Q&A: On Shorts, CapEx, Demand Cycles & More— — — —▶️ MORE EPISODES:NVDA: As Good As It Gets https://youtu.be/x8gJ8ElyUlMPOOL: Reverse Engineering Berkshire’s POOL Investment: Buying a Great Company in a Lull https://youtu.be/190LgD6BdmQ?si=2rRej5lAdh4RLa0sZM: Growth Acceleration, A Catalyst https://youtu.be/D8THaDUBkTA?si=gKYXfFLL6nLUVnucBNED: 3x Return Potential Post Recap https://youtu.be/P6xy67DtqQ4?si=S7RyvfnPceYAmJGxFollow Pitch The PM:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/pitch-the-pmX: https://x.com/PitchThePMYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@PitchThePM— — — —Not Investment Advice. For Educational Purposes. See disclaimers at PitchThePM.com

Doug Garber, a former analyst at Citadel and portfolio manager at Millennium, discusses the evolving landscape of portfolio management. He emphasizes the significance of process over mere predictions in achieving investment success. Garber shares insights on building a strong signal amid market noise and what sets successful candidates apart in the competitive job market. He also tackles the role of rigorous research in hedge funds and debates the true potential of AI investments in today's economy.

In this insightful discussion, Gil Luria, the Head of Technology Research at D.A. Davidson, brings over 25 years of experience to the table as he analyzes Nvidia's trajectory. He dives into the current GPU cycle, spotlighting the competition and market shifts in AI hardware spending. The conversation reveals possible declines in Nvidia's revenue and how major clients like Microsoft are reassessing their strategies. Gil critiques Wall Street’s growth expectations while exploring the sustainability of rising capital expenditures across tech giants.

In addition to presenting high-conviction investment ideas, we also reverse engineer great investors’ theses to improve our process. Pool Corp. has a leading position in a good industry and has demonstrated the ability to consistently grow FCF/share in the mid-teens with a high ROIC. The current post-COVID pool industry downturn has led to negative sentiment, and long-term investors of great companies such as Berkshire see this as an opportunity to buy a great company at a “fair” price. We use a reverse DCF to impute that consensus expects FCF to grow in the mid-single digits, which is below historical levels. While it is unclear if the pool industry is “out of the woods” yet based on expert network channel checks from AlphaSense, it is likely based on peer ‘25 revenue growth commentary that Pool Corp. might envision a return to low single-digit growth in 2025 as consensus expects (+3.4%). This might cause some of the remaining 2.6 MM (7% of float) shares short (down from 4.4 MM shares in 2023) to abandon their thesis. Earnings revisions will be the key.— — — — — — — —Episode partners: 💡 This episode is powered by AlphaSense. Use our link here for Complimentary access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/👉Want the full model from today’s episode built by our Dedicated Analyst Team at InSync Analytics? Email: learn@pitchthePM.com— — — — — — — —Berkshire’s Investment Checklist: 00:00 Intro05:02 Is this business in my CIRCLE OF COMPETENCE? Yes, I covered the pool industry as a PM at Millennium, and it’s a relatively simple business to understand.06:28 What is the MARGIN OF SAFETY?No replacement value or BV support. Good business as measured by ROIC and FCF and a leading position in a good industry where scale has advantages.10:00 Is the stock available BELOW INTRINSIC VALUE?No, the stock seems fully valued at a 4% unlevered FCF yield.What is Berkshire’s Potential VARIANT VIEW?Berkshire likely thinks the company can get back to mid-teens FCF/share growth per historical trends vs the implied consensus of mid-single digit growth.17:28 Does the business operate in a GOOD INDUSTRY?Yes, the pool distribution business is a good industry. It is mostly recurring revenue and asset light.19:55 Is this a BAD, GOOD, or GREAT BUSINESS?Great business at an “almost fair price” in a post-COVID downturn.21:36 Does the business have a WIDE MOAT?The company has constantly generated excess ROIC and has advantages in its store locations being near customer pool routes, in being the largest buyer from manufacturers to obtain procurement discounts, in having a large footprint to optimize inventory management, and a leading tech interface for customers.24:11 Are management INCENTIVE ALIGNED?Yes, management is compensated on ROIC and EPS growth.28:18 Is this one of your 20 lifetime PUNCH CARDS?No, it is not one of my lifetime 20 investments.— — — — — — — —▶️ MORE EPISODES:BNED: 3x Return Potential Post Recap https://youtu.be/P6xy67DtqQ4?si=S7RyvfnPceYAmJGxZM: Growth Acceleration, A Catalyst https://youtu.be/D8THaDUBkTA?si=gKYXfFLL6nLUVnu— — — — — — — —Follow Pitch The PM:📩 Subscribe to our Newsletter for more high-conviction research, quarterly research updates, the research pipeline, and the job board:https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe🎧 Listen to the episodes here:https://spotifycreators-web.app.link/e/GZFTproPLQbYoutube:https://www.youtube.com/@PitchThePMLinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508/X:https://x.com/PitchThePM— — — — — — — —Thank you for tuning in. We would be grateful for your comment or like!⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes. It is not investment advice. Contact your financial advisor for suitable investments for you.

Hello and welcome back to Pitch The PM, where we debate high-conviction investment ideas with top PMs using our 10 Step Variant View Investment Checklist. — — — —2-2.5x Return Potential. Post the COVID stock bubble, a laser-focused management team at Zoom worked to transform from a single-product company to an Enterprise platform. Revenue growth acceleration from low single-digits to high single-digits could be the catalyst for positive earnings revisions and potentially multiple re-rating.In the second episode of Pitch the PM, ex-Citadel Analyst & Millennium Senior Portfolio Manager Doug Garber is swayed by Sean Emory’s ZM pitch. Sean has high conviction in his ZM thesis with a mid-teens weight in his portfolios. After more research, Doug also took a position.10-Step Variant View Investment Checklist[00:00] Intro[02:29] What ACTION do I want the Portfolio Manager to take? - Buy[12:06] Do I UNDERSTAND this business and industry?- Yes, Sean uses it for his business.[21:51]​ Is the stock available at a REASONABLE price today?- Yes, at 10x EV/EBITDA and at the low end of the Enterprise Software peers.[32:48] Why is this stock MISPRICED?Low growth at 3% as the Online Segment churn at 2-3%/month has reduced the overall company’s growth rate from the Enterprise Segment.[35:57] What is my VARIANT VIEW vs the street?- Growth accelerating to high single-digits from low single-digits.- Adoption of Zoom phone and Zoom Call Center and stability from the Online Segment.[38:34] What is my EVIDENCE?- AlphaSense expert calls demonstrate the uplift from Zoom Phone can be 3x for an Enterprise client.- And AlphaSense expert calls also discuss the strong, founder-led culture that is laser-focused on winning in UCaaS.[51:58] What are the CATALYSTS for the street to realize my view? - Quarterly results with accelerating Enterprise revenue growth and stable Online revenue.[55:35] What is the company WORTH if my bet is right?- $100 - $210 based on $5-$7 in FCF/share at 20-30x P/FCF.[57:38] What is the OTHER SIDE of the bet?- Competition makes it hard for Zoom to accelerate Enterprise growth and/or the Online Segment churn increases.[1:02:54] Is management ALIGNED with ownership?- Yes, this is a founder-led company with 8% insider ownership and a laser focus on being the best in UCaaS.[1:04:51] Kill Criteria [1:08:16] Short Interests [1:09:27] Variant View Checklist[1:22:25] OutroThank you for tuning in. We would be grateful for your comment or like!— — — —▶️ MORE EPISODES:BNED: 3x Return Potential Post Recaphttps://youtu.be/P6xy67DtqQ4?si=S7RyvfnPceYAmJGx— — — —Follow Pitch The PM:📩 Subscribe to our Newsletter for more high-conviction research, quarterly research updates, the research pipeline, and the job board:https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribeYoutube:https://www.youtube.com/@PitchThePM🎧 Listen to the episodes here:https://spotifycreators-web.app.link/e/GZFTproPLQbLinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508/X:https://x.com/PitchThePM— — — —Avory & Company - Investing Where The World is Headed. Avory & Co runs a high-conviction growth equity strategy focusing on quality, well-led companies offering long-term sustainable growth. Sean Emory earned his degree at Yale. He was a co-founder of Blink App and founder and current CIO of Avory & Co.— — — —💡 EPISODE PARTNER: Please support our partners to keep our episodes free.This episode is powered by AlphaSense. Use our link here for Complimentary access —https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/— — — —⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes. It is not investment advice. Contact your financial advisor for suitable investments for you.

In the first episode of Pitch the PM, ex-Citadel Analyst & Millennium Senior Portfolio Manager, Doug Garber, grills, Analyst, Alex Nuta's BNED pitch. The Analyst uses the 10 Step Variant View Investment Checklist  to convince his PM that BNED has the potential to be a 3-bagger.