Pitch The PM JAZZ: Value with an Oncology Catalyst - 5x Risk-Reward Ratio
Welcome back to another episode of Pitch the PM. In this episode, Doug speaks with biotech expert, Sriker Nadipuram from Critical Value Asset Management, about Jazz Pharmaceuticals Although outside Doug’s typical investment lane, the conversation highlights shared frameworks and rigorous research methodologies. Sriker unpacks Jazz’s business model, detailing its base business in neurology and the high-potential oncology pipeline. They examine the firm’s risk-reward setup, political uncertainty from tariffs and drug pricing, and why the market may be overlooking a potentially transformational oncology outcome in 2H’25. Tune in to learn more about JAZZ’s value proposition amid healthcare uncertainty.
*Not Investment Advice.
Chapters:
[00:00:00] What ACTION do I want the Portfolio Manager to take?
Waiting on tax uncertainty for Irish-domiciled company to clear despite compelling fundamental oncology clinical catalyst opportunity
JAZZ framed with $15 downside vs. $70–80 of upside potential with clinical success.
[00:10:38] Do I UNDERSTAND this business?
Sriker is an expert in biotech with extensive training and experience.
Breakdown of Jazz’s neurology and epilepsy base, including Xyrem/Xywav and Epidiolex.
Outside of Doug’s circle of competence. No position. Difficult to form a view on the potential impact of drug pricing, taxes and the clinical outcome. Although, Sriker does provide a rational view for the clinical outcome being partially de-risked and the potential value uplift to JAZZ.
[00:22:43] Is the stock available at a REASONABLE price today?
Striker’s valuation view shows the stock is undervalued even without pipeline contributions at a 5x 2026 P/E.
They discuss that DCF valuation is front-loaded with little terminal value due to the patent expiring eventually.
[00:27:54] Why is this stock MIS-PRICED?
Jazz is wrongly lumped with speculative biopharma names despite durable earnings.
Generalists are avoiding the space due to uncertainty around drug pricing. JAZZ also has earnings uncertainty due to its Irish domicile.
[00:29:07] What is the VARIANT VIEW vs the street?
Generalists have exited biopharma.
Sriker sees a solid base valuation from existing portfolio and a potential clinical catalyst that is being overlooked due to the lack of interest in the biotech space.
[00:36:40] What is the EVIDENCE?
Sriker outlines research methods including AlphaSense transcripts and expert networks that build on top of his education in pharmaceuticals and investment experience.
[00:39:05] What are the CATALYSTS for the street to realize my view?
A Phase 3 gastric cancer trial readout expected in H2 2025 could be positive for JAZZ.
Clarity on Irish domiciled tax policies and drug pricing changes.
[00:49:42] What is it WORTH if the bet is right?
Sriker sees potential upside to ~$180+ based on projected oncology sales and expanded FCF.
[00:51:09] What is the OTHER SIDE of the bet?
Risks include clinical trial failure, generic pressure, and political/macro headwinds.
[00:56:08] Is management ALIGNED with ownership?
No buybacks/dividends, but capital is reinvested in pipeline with proven operational execution.
Episode partner:
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