Pitch The PM

PitchThePM
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Feb 6, 2025 • 1h 24min

Zoom ($ZM): Growth Acceleration, A Catalyst

Hello and welcome back to Pitch The PM, where we debate high-conviction investment ideas with top PMs using our 10 Step Variant View Investment Checklist. — — — —2-2.5x Return Potential. Post the COVID stock bubble, a laser-focused management team at Zoom worked to transform from a single-product company to an Enterprise platform. Revenue growth acceleration from low single-digits to high single-digits could be the catalyst for positive earnings revisions and potentially multiple re-rating.In the second episode of Pitch the PM, ex-Citadel Analyst & Millennium Senior Portfolio Manager Doug Garber is swayed by Sean Emory’s ZM pitch. Sean has high conviction in his ZM thesis with a mid-teens weight in his portfolios. After more research, Doug also took a position.10-Step Variant View Investment Checklist[00:00] Intro[02:29] What ACTION do I want the Portfolio Manager to take? - Buy[12:06] Do I UNDERSTAND this business and industry?- Yes, Sean uses it for his business.[21:51]​ Is the stock available at a REASONABLE price today?- Yes, at 10x EV/EBITDA and at the low end of the Enterprise Software peers.[32:48] Why is this stock MISPRICED?Low growth at 3% as the Online Segment churn at 2-3%/month has reduced the overall company’s growth rate from the Enterprise Segment.[35:57] What is my VARIANT VIEW vs the street?- Growth accelerating to high single-digits from low single-digits.- Adoption of Zoom phone and Zoom Call Center and stability from the Online Segment.[38:34] What is my EVIDENCE?- AlphaSense expert calls demonstrate the uplift from Zoom Phone can be 3x for an Enterprise client.- And AlphaSense expert calls also discuss the strong, founder-led culture that is laser-focused on winning in UCaaS.[51:58] What are the CATALYSTS for the street to realize my view? - Quarterly results with accelerating Enterprise revenue growth and stable Online revenue.[55:35] What is the company WORTH if my bet is right?- $100 - $210 based on $5-$7 in FCF/share at 20-30x P/FCF.[57:38] What is the OTHER SIDE of the bet?- Competition makes it hard for Zoom to accelerate Enterprise growth and/or the Online Segment churn increases.[1:02:54] Is management ALIGNED with ownership?- Yes, this is a founder-led company with 8% insider ownership and a laser focus on being the best in UCaaS.[1:04:51] Kill Criteria [1:08:16] Short Interests [1:09:27] Variant View Checklist[1:22:25] OutroThank you for tuning in. We would be grateful for your comment or like!— — — —▶️ MORE EPISODES:BNED: 3x Return Potential Post Recaphttps://youtu.be/P6xy67DtqQ4?si=S7RyvfnPceYAmJGx— — — —Follow Pitch The PM:📩 Subscribe to our Newsletter for more high-conviction research, quarterly research updates, the research pipeline, and the job board:https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribeYoutube:https://www.youtube.com/@PitchThePM🎧 Listen to the episodes here:https://spotifycreators-web.app.link/e/GZFTproPLQbLinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508/X:https://x.com/PitchThePM— — — —Avory & Company - Investing Where The World is Headed. Avory & Co runs a high-conviction growth equity strategy focusing on quality, well-led companies offering long-term sustainable growth. Sean Emory earned his degree at Yale. He was a co-founder of Blink App and founder and current CIO of Avory & Co.— — — —💡 EPISODE PARTNER: Please support our partners to keep our episodes free.This episode is powered by AlphaSense. Use our link here for Complimentary access —https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/— — — —⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes. It is not investment advice. Contact your financial advisor for suitable investments for you.
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Dec 21, 2024 • 52min

Barnes & Noble Education ($BNED): 3x Return Potential on Turnaround

In the first episode of Pitch the PM, ex-Citadel Analyst & Millennium Senior Portfolio Manager, Doug Garber, grills, Analyst, Alex Nuta's BNED pitch. The Analyst uses the 10 Step Variant View Investment Checklist  to convince his PM that BNED has the potential to be a 3-bagger. 

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