Live 001: NVDA: Understanding the Bear Case

May 15, 2025

Ask episode

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

Pitch The PM Live

Doug Garber breaks down his thesis on the future of NVIDIA using his Variant View checklist. He draws on insights from his recent episode with Gil Luria and incorporates real-time analytics from our show sponsors

5 key points discussed:

✅ Customer capex from a couple Big Tech customers is flattening out sequentially and that should make it hard for NVDA to continue to beat already high expectations for +$4B of QoQ revenue growth. The debate is how much will others absorb?

✅ The S+D for GPU's is already seeing PRICING pressure in the rent by the hour market - the canary in the coal mine?

✅ Increased competition from customer chips and Chinese chips should erode market share and margins in the medium-term

✅ The underlying GPU customer economics appear unsupported by returns and are being driven by an "Arms Race" mentality that could become fragile with declining stock prices recently

✅ The reduced NVDA valuation implies some bad news is being discounted. We use a reverse-DCF to dig-in here.

— — — —

Thanks to FinTool and InSync Analytics for sponsoring this webinar. Use this link to access a complimentary free trial: https://fintool.com/?utm_source=pitchthePM

📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts. https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe

— — — —

Chapters:

00:00 – Introduction & Webinar Overview

02:15 – Doug Garber’s Background & Investment Philosophy

05:40 – NVIDIA's Position, Management Signals, & Investment Framework

09:00 – Bull vs. Bear: Framing the Debate on NVDA

20:15 – Supply, Demand, and Competitive Landscape

31:05 – Market Expectations, Pricing Trends & Cyclical Risks

41:00 – Capital Allocation, Big Tech CapEx & Future Catalysts

57:50 – Q&A: On Shorts, CapEx, Demand Cycles & More

— — — —

▶️ MORE EPISODES:

NVDA: As Good As It Gets https://youtu.be/x8gJ8ElyUlM

POOL: Reverse Engineering Berkshire’s POOL Investment: Buying a Great Company in a Lull https://youtu.be/190LgD6BdmQ?si=2rRej5lAdh4RLa0s

ZM: Growth Acceleration, A Catalyst https://youtu.be/D8THaDUBkTA?si=gKYXfFLL6nLUVnuc

BNED: 3x Return Potential Post Recap https://youtu.be/P6xy67DtqQ4?si=S7RyvfnPceYAmJGxFollow

Pitch The PM:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/pitch-the-pm

X: https://x.com/PitchThePM

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@PitchThePM

— — — —

Not Investment Advice. For Educational Purposes. See disclaimers at PitchThePM.com