The Mike Hosking Breakfast

The time has nearly come for Jeffrey Archer to put down the pen.  The prolific author and former member of Lords has sold over 350 million copies of his books, and has just wrapped up the William Warwick series with the release of the eighth book ‘End Game’.  He has one more book left to write, which he’s aiming to finish by Christmas and release in September next year.  But although this will be Archer’s final book, he’s not stepping back from writing altogether, telling Mike Hosking that he still plans on writing short stories and perhaps a screenplay.  “This book is, frankly, bigger than ‘Kane and Abel’ as a story,” he said.  “I’ve got to see if I’ve been able to write it, and frankly, I won’t want to follow it.”  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 9th of October, the Reserve Bank did what the market, and the Government, wanted and cut the OCR by 50 basis points. Is this the move Nicola Willis needs for growth?  The CEO of the International Rugby Players’ Association Omar Hassanein talks the threat of R360.  Author and former member of Lord's, Jeffrey Archer is back to talk the last book in the William Warwick series and second last novel he will ever write.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A landmark deal has been announced for sports sponsorship in New Zealand.  Crypto company Swyftx has signed a new partnership with the Warriors, the first of a multimillion dollar spend across the sporting landscape.  Crypto sponsorships are surging globally, up 20% over the past year to US$565 million.  Warriors CEO Cameron George told Mike Hosking they were approached by Swyftx, who want to grow their hold in the New Zealand market.  He says both parties believe there is a lot of credibility in their growth and opportunity, and the Warriors are there to help them get there.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Could R360 take legal action against the eight unions who will deem any player that signs with the Saudi-backed league as ineligible for international rugby?  New Zealand, England, Ireland, France, Scotland, Australia, South Africa, and Italy have joined forces against the competition, which is set to launch next year.  While NZR has a policy to avoid selecting overseas-based players, other countries regularly pick from outside their domestic competitions.  International Rugby Players' Association boss Omar Hassanein told Mike Hosking this precedent is likely to be explored by R360's lawyers.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fears a proposed bylaw to combat freedom camping in the Queenstown Lakes District could be a headache for Kiwis.  The new bylaw goes before councillors this week and proposes 15 designated freedom camping sites for the district following a surge in freedom campers.  People freedom camping in other areas could face fines of at least $400.   New Zealand Motor Caravan Association's James Imlach says there was consultation from the council, but it wasn’t done well enough to get a plan that both protects the community and allows law-abiding people to camp in the district without causing harm.  He told Mike Hosking it seems to have been a bit of a token gesture, as the proposed bylaw is very similar to what they’ve been trying to push for a number of years, and it seems like the council’s just trying to find a new way to get the same outcome.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a push to make the wool industry the backbone of New Zealand again.  A cross-sector alliance has been formed between four major organisations, aimed at driving economic growth and consolidating efforts.  It wants the industry to deliver decent returns and remove existing duplications.  Independent Chair John Monaghan told Mike Hosking the price of wool is substantially increasing right now.  He says synthetics have been the biggest opposition to wool, but thinks the time is right for the natural product.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Finance Minister says she's okay with a short spike in inflation.  The Reserve Bank has slashed the cash rate 50-basis-points to 2.5% and is leaving the door open to further cuts.  It expects inflation to reach or surpass 3% in the short term but believes the economy is weak enough to push inflation back down again next year.  Nicola Willis told Mike Hosking we won't see another long-period of sustained much-higher inflation.  She says a little blip's okay, but the three years of high inflation under the last government is not okay.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The biggest upshot of the latest OCR cut is likely to be the boost to consumer confidence.  The Reserve Bank's slashed the cash rate by 50-basis-points to 2.5%.  Major banks are responding by lowering floating and flexible rates after already lowering their fixed-term rates in recent days.  ABC Business Sales Chief Executive Chris Small told Mike Hosking businesses will benefit more indirectly from increased consumer spending, than directly from falling interest rates.  He says interest costs are only a small portion of a person's actual business costs, and businesses will always prefer for revenues to rise than for costs to fall.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I would have thought the NZIER numbers yesterday sealed the deal for the Monetary Policy Committee and today's call. The NZIER was the last substantive look at the economy, and what it shows is we have real trouble. Quite possibly recessionary trouble. They think Q3 was certainly flat, if not in contraction. If it is contraction, you can add that to the Q2 contraction and that, once again, is a recession. How many of these do we want? In the Reserve Bank's case how many do they want, given they can actually do something about it? They are two particularly poor, if not concerning, parts of the data. 1) More jobs are being cut. So that’s your unemployment rate heading higher still, shattering the idea that we may have reached peak. 2) Inflation expectations are heading north of 3% – remember the band is 1-3%. The trouble with that is the 3% isn't coming from growth, which is traditionally what you want. The term for no growth but increasing inflation is stagflation. We could re-litigate, again, how badly the bank have handled this, how they missed Q2 despite that being their job, how they kept telling us the stimulatory effects of lower interest rates were here, or just about here, or here any day now, and if in fact they were ever here they got swallowed by the councils, power companies and insurances giants. Anyway, surely 50 basis points is a given. It isn't of course. There remain those who argue 25 points should do it today and another 25 next month and we can all head off to Christmas, fingers crossed. My argument today is about more than stats and numbers, it's about the psychology of an economy and a country. The Government have tried, but largely failed, to jolly us along and to sell us the story of recovery. The Reserve Bank have spectacularly failed. But they can help today with 50 basis because it says we got it wrong, we missed it, we need to fire this joint up and here is our shot. And it’s a big one. Go on Christian – be bold.  It's your second last time. Don't die wondering.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

People are making tough choices at the supermarket to keep costs down.  A new report reveals the average weekly spend per household is now $240 – an increase of only $2 from 2023.  To cut costs, 31% of are buying less groceries, 48% are downgrading on brands, and 30% are looking for specials.  Head of Sustainable Business Development at Rabobank, Blake Holgate told Mike Hosking the results are unsurprising, as wage inflation has not increased at the same rate as food inflation.  He says people have had to make cuts or choices, and that’s what they’re seeing come through in these results.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.