The Mike Hosking Breakfast

I would have thought the NZIER numbers yesterday sealed the deal for the Monetary Policy Committee and today's call. The NZIER was the last substantive look at the economy, and what it shows is we have real trouble. Quite possibly recessionary trouble. They think Q3 was certainly flat, if not in contraction. If it is contraction, you can add that to the Q2 contraction and that, once again, is a recession. How many of these do we want? In the Reserve Bank's case how many do they want, given they can actually do something about it? They are two particularly poor, if not concerning, parts of the data. 1) More jobs are being cut. So that’s your unemployment rate heading higher still, shattering the idea that we may have reached peak. 2) Inflation expectations are heading north of 3% – remember the band is 1-3%. The trouble with that is the 3% isn't coming from growth, which is traditionally what you want. The term for no growth but increasing inflation is stagflation. We could re-litigate, again, how badly the bank have handled this, how they missed Q2 despite that being their job, how they kept telling us the stimulatory effects of lower interest rates were here, or just about here, or here any day now, and if in fact they were ever here they got swallowed by the councils, power companies and insurances giants. Anyway, surely 50 basis points is a given. It isn't of course. There remain those who argue 25 points should do it today and another 25 next month and we can all head off to Christmas, fingers crossed. My argument today is about more than stats and numbers, it's about the psychology of an economy and a country. The Government have tried, but largely failed, to jolly us along and to sell us the story of recovery. The Reserve Bank have spectacularly failed. But they can help today with 50 basis because it says we got it wrong, we missed it, we need to fire this joint up and here is our shot. And it’s a big one. Go on Christian – be bold.  It's your second last time. Don't die wondering.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

People are making tough choices at the supermarket to keep costs down.  A new report reveals the average weekly spend per household is now $240 – an increase of only $2 from 2023.  To cut costs, 31% of are buying less groceries, 48% are downgrading on brands, and 30% are looking for specials.  Head of Sustainable Business Development at Rabobank, Blake Holgate told Mike Hosking the results are unsurprising, as wage inflation has not increased at the same rate as food inflation.  He says people have had to make cuts or choices, and that’s what they’re seeing come through in these results.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Police Minister says officers don't have the laws they need to move protesters from MPs' homes.  The Government introduced the legislation to ban protests outside homes in August, and it's now before a select committee.   A 29-year-old man's turned himself in and been charged, accused of smashing a window at Foreign Minister Winston Peters' house earlier this week.  Minister Mark Mitchell told Mike Hosking every single Kiwi would agree the one place they should feel safe is in their own home.  Labour’s Ginny Andersen agreed, but says the law as proposed is really unclear in terms of detail.  She says people have the right to protest but if they’re breaking the law, then they should get prosecuted, just as the person who was charged with smashing the window was.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 8th of October, what is the Reserve Bank going to do today? Cut 25 basis points or 50?  If I told you that on average we're only spending $2 more per week on groceries compared to 2023, would you believe me?  Mark Mitchell and Ginny Andersen talk the Government's benefit policy and protesting outside MPs’ homes on Politics Wednesday.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Students' attitudes towards truancy are said to be turning around.  A new Education Review Office report has found six out of ten students attend regularly – back to pre-Covid levels, but still down on 2015.  It also found 80% think education is important for their futures, and 75% think attending every day is important.  Deputy Chief Executive Ruth Shinoda told Mike Hosking there's still more work to do.  She says seven in ten children went to school regularly in 2015 and the government wants to increase that to eight in ten by 2030.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

More than 300 people in Auckland have been ordered to re-sit their practical driving tests.  It followed allegations VTNZ officers took money in return for giving passes.  Five officers at VTNZ's Highbrook branch have been sacked and police have launched an investigation into potential fraud.  The wrongdoing's alleged to have taken place over a few years.  President of the Institute of Driver Educators Mark Revill-Johnson told Mike Hosking there can't be any faith in the results of the tests.  He says it's unknown if they were properly conducted tests according to the rules.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Economists are split on how far the Reserve Bank will go with slashing the Official Cash Rate.  The central bank will reveal its latest monetary policy decision this afternoon.   There are strong expectations of a cut from three percent, but debate over its size.   ANZ says a 25 basis point cut could be strategic at this point in the cycle, with the OCR near its bottom.   But ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Mike Hosking he favours a 50 basis point cut.   He says you can make a case either way, but he thinks it's time to give it a firmer nudge than what we've seen recently.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The stars are aligning for the red meat sector with record returns and global demand.   Rabobank's latest report suggests two-million underutilised dairy calves are born each year, at a time when beef prices are hitting record highs.   It's calling for a coordinated effort across breeding, rearing, and value chains to add an alleged $1.2 billion to the economy.  Meat Industry Association Chair Nathan Guy told Mike Hosking there's a lot of system change that needs to occur.   He says farmers know the demand is there, so it's an exciting time.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kiwi Chef Chelsea Winter is all about making a practical resource for Kiwi families, having written nearly ten cookbooks over the years.  Her last few books have been focused on plant-based recipes, many of them dairy-free, egg-free, and refined sugar-free, but her 8th book, ‘Nourish’ is a return to the basics.   “My books have always been created with the intention that they are to be used,” she told Mike Hosking.  “It’s not a coffee table book.”  ‘Nourish’ is filled with recipes designed not only to taste good, but to feel good, Winter says, adaptable recipes that allow a family to thrive.  “It’s a culmination of everything I’ve learned over the last 13 years, but also the person I’ve become.”  “There’s a purpose behind this book now, it’s not just like, oh look, I won MasterChef, I’m going to put out a book,” she said.  “I’m doing it to empower people in the kitchen, to uplift and inspire them, to help them nourish their families in a way that’s accessible and useful and joyful.”  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 7th of October, there are new measures from the Government to improve attendance rates, with dozens more schools signing up for support.   Health NZ’s buying thousands of vapes —including flavoured products— for those trying to quit smoking, and Mike is incredulous.   Chelsea Winter discusses her new cookbook and answers questions on that wellness retreat.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.