The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Corrections is prepared for a projected spike in our prison numbers.  The Ministry of Justice projects the prison population will increase 36% by 2035 to more than 14,000 people.  New policies such as the Sentencing Reform Act and the reinstatement of the Three Strikes law are pushing the projected growth.  Corrections Custodial Services Commissioner Leigh Marsh told Mike Hosking they prepare for a lot of variability in prison populations.  He says in 2018 we had more than 10,000 prisoners, followed by a drop and now another rise.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A former defence minister doesn't believe the US will walk away from the AUKUS security pact altogether.  The Pentagon's started a review of the agreement between Australia, the UK, and the US, which New Zealand remains open to being involved in.  Officials will assess whether the deal fits with Donald Trump's America First agenda.  Wayne Mapp told Mike Hosking the US remains fundamentally committed to the partnership.  He says Australia is America's closest ally in the Asia Pacific —possibly its closest ally in the whole world— and they're hardly going to trash that relationship.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As part of Fieldays, Federated Farmers have done the most interesting survey.  It is a snapshot, like them all. But the numbers for one lot are so stark, alarm bells should be ringing.  So, who would a farmer vote for? You would say National and you would be right.  Broadly the farming community is conservative, always has been.  That, partly, is because they are their own masters, they are hard workers, they are self-reliant, they are at the cutting edge of the economy, and they know how life works.  So 54% said they'd vote for National and 19% said ACT.  Here is where it gets interesting and/or alarming.  8% said they'd vote for NZ First. They're the only party with farmers at about the same level as they are nationally.  Labour is on 3%. How bad is that? Even with a margin of error, even with a massive margin of error, Labour should be shocked at that figure.  Every party has their sweet spot, some parties more overtly so, e.g. the Greens and environmentalists, or communists.  ACT have some upmarket urban liberals. New Zealand First having a provincial number higher than the city wouldn’t surprise me  But National and Labour, as major parties should be, by their very nature are broad-based. After all, it is Labour and National, and Labour and National alone, that will lead any given Government on any given day.  You have to at least have a half-decent level of support even in your weakest areas.  Farming is particularly important, given we are a farming nation, the foreign receipts we get from the land and the value of our free trade deals.  To have a major party so out of touch with such a large sector strikes me as being astonishing, if not embarrassing, if not unheard of.  My suspicion is the current version of Labour is particularly unpalatable, and this is going to be their major issue next year.  For all voters the damage done to the country is still fresh in most of our minds, but no more so than farmers. The climate obsession, special land area designation, Three Waters with Māori overreach, no gas, and more paperwork.  Farmers hated it. A lot of us hated it.  But in general polls Labour are competitive. On the land they are pariahs.  At 3% that is a massive hill for Hipkins and co to climb between now and October next year. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jimmy Carr is well known for a couple of things, his controversial comedy and distinctive laugh chief among them. And he’s bringing both to Kiwi audiences early next year, travelling right across the country, stopping in 13 different cities.  He’s got a prolific career in standup, as well as being a household name in UK television, not only hosting an array of panel shows, but a regular guest on many of the rest.  Carr has a busy schedule, and he told Mike Hosking that he works as much as he possibly can, as his work is such a joyful thing.  “If I have a night off, what am I doing? I’m sitting at home having my tea,” he said.  “If I come out and do a show, it’s such a joyful thing."  “I also think I do have a propensity to get cancelled once in a while,” Carr confessed, the comedian having seen his fair share of controversies.  “So you never know when your last one’s going to be.”  When it comes to cancel culture, Carr is a big advocate for freedom of speech.  “I’m not for everyone, and edgy jokes, there’s you know, limits of it, sometimes it’s not for everyone,” he told Hosking.  “But the whole cancel culture thing, you go, well, as long as you don’t get cancelled by your own audience, I think you’re golden.”  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 12th of June, it's good news Thursday as we see good news for wool, good news for our food and fibre exports, and good news for our elective surgery waitlist.  You won't believe how many people are leaving Auckland and the North Island to head to Christchurch and the South Island.   Award-winning comedian Jimmy Carr is heading this way, but before that he's on to talk cancel culture, his love of New Zealand, and his life of the tour.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Christchurch is acting as a magnet for thousands of Kiwis making the move down South.  The latest Stats NZ census data shows 85,000 people moved to the South Island between 2018 and 2023.  Around half of those have gone to the Canterbury region.  ChristchurchNZ Chief Executive Ali Adams told Mike Hosking the Garden City's versatility is being recognized.  She says people are realizing you can have a brilliant career and a great life.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Health New Zealand is outsourcing more elective operations to private facilities to ease strain on the system.   The agency aims to deliver more than 10,500 additional elective procedures by the end of June, by partnering with private hospitals to expand surgical capacity.  The target is within reach with more than 8,600 procedures complete since March.     Christchurch colorectal and general surgeon Chris Wakeman told Mike Hosking that although he gets paid less to do public work, this is the future of healthcare.   He says it's so much more efficient and you can do a lot more work.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Todd McClay says surging value and supply is behind the rise in food and fibre export revenue.  The latest forecasts project export earnings of $59.9 billion for the year ending later this month.   It's now on track to reach $65.7 billion by 2029.  Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay told Mike Hosking we're seeing sectors like Horticulture raise exports by 20%.  He says for the first time ever we saw Zespri sell $5 billion worth of kiwifruit around the world.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Italy’s squeezed middle class could be getting a breather.  Tax cuts are at the top of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s agenda, as she says the middle class is the backbone of the Italian production system.  She says they want to make the system fairer.   Italy Correspondent Jo McKenna told Mike Hosking she’s reduced the tax rate from around 26% to 24% so far.   She says they’re likely going to need to do a lot more, because many are still struggling financially.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Finance Minister says a move to require wool carpets in state housing makes financial sense.  Nicola Willis has announced a change to Kainga Ora's supplier agreement that will see it re-open its previously nylon-only carpet tender process.  From the start of next month, all public entities will also be required to use woollen fibres where practical and appropriate.  Willis told Mike Hosking officials have told her it makes sense for Kainga Ora to make this change.  She says it's cost-neutral, and it performs well across a number of other dimensions.  Nicola Willis says the Reserve Bank should never be exempt from cost-cutting across the public sector.  Newly released documents show Adrian Orr's abrupt resignation as Governor came after he was denied the Budget allocation he was seeking.  The Finance Minister says the central bank still has the funding it requires to do its statutory duties.  She told Hosking the Reserve Bank can't operate as a "gilded palace" – it needs to be fiscally responsible, like all other government departments.  Willis says any idea that the Reserve Bank doesn't need to abide by the same funding constraints as other Government agencies is wrong.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.