ChinaTalk

Peter Harrell, a former U.S. trade official, and Oren Cass, founder of American Compass, dive into the Supreme Court's examination of tariffs under the IEPA. They explore the complexities of U.S.-China trade relations, discussing the challenges of reciprocity and the implications of decoupling. The duo reflects on the strategic importance of the USMCA and ways it could reshape North American trade. They also assess the Biden and Trump administrations' differing approaches to economic strategy and national security concerning China.

Tyler Jost, a Brown University professor and author of *Bureaucracies at War*, explores how leaders misjudge foreign policy despite expert advice. He reveals how Mao’s early successes weakened his decision-making and discusses the dangerous echo chambers formed within bureaucracies. Jost dives into Deng’s miscalculation in Vietnam, highlighting the role of succession pressures. He also examines LBJ’s strategic blunders, shaped by loyalty over expertise, and draws parallels to Xi Jinping’s current governance challenges, stressing the need for improved communication to avoid past mistakes.

Kirsten and Charlotte Asdall, former U.S. naval officers turned experts on the Chinese Communist Party, dive into crucial aspects of U.S.-China relations. They explore the implications of Trump's recent meeting with Xi Jinping, questioning whether it could shift U.S. policy on Taiwan. The Asdalls analyze Xi's military confidence, potential alternatives to invasion, and the risk of blockades. They also discuss the balance of innovation versus production in defense technology, shedding light on China's rise amid cultural reflections.

Rob Lee, a former U.S. Marine and senior analyst at FPRI with frontline experience in Ukraine, teams up with Shashank Joshi, a defense and foreign affairs commentator for The Economist. They dive into the transformative role of drones in modern warfare, revealing that UAVs are responsible for around 80% of casualties. The duo discusses the intricate relationship between drones and artillery, the challenges of battlefield transparency, and the implications of commercial drone technology from China, all while analyzing how these lessons can reshape military strategies globally.

Tobias Harris, a consultant on Japanese politics and host of the Observing Japan Substack, shares insights on the rise of Japan's new Prime Minister, Takaichi. He delves into her political background and hawkish stance on defense. Harris discusses how her leadership may impact Japan's international relations, especially with the U.S. He also highlights the challenges she faces domestically, including coalition dynamics and government stability, while assessing the significance of having Japan's first female prime minister.

This discussion features Rob Lee, a military expert with frontline insights from the Ukraine war, and Shashank Joshi, a defense analyst affiliated with The Economist. They delve into the significant role of drones in the conflict, highlighting that nearly 80% of casualties stem from UAVs. The guests explore tactical innovations, the impact of Chinese drone technology, and the operational challenges faced by Ukrainian forces. They also assess NATO's evolving strategies in light of these battlefield lessons and the implications for future military doctrine.

Justin McIntosh, a foreign policy expert, Brian Clark, a retired submariner, and Eric Robinson, a former Army officer, discuss a range of gripping subjects. They dive into the complex U.S. naval presence near Venezuela and the implications of military shutdowns on operations. The conversation reveals risks involving private equity's involvement with military infrastructure and the effects on small contractors. They also explore submarine detection strategies against China and delve into the haunting reflections from E.B. Sledge's experiences in war.

Jon Czin, a former senior China analyst at the CIA, dissects Xi Jinping's strategy in a landscape defined by purges and power play. He reveals how Xi's aggressive 'decapitation strategy' has streamlined the PLA's loyalty while purging more generals than Mao. The conversation delves into Xi's evolving Taiwan policy, shifting from economic incentives to coercion. Czin also considers Xi's potential cognitive decline and the implications for succession. With insights on U.S.-China dynamics, the podcast paints a gripping picture of geopolitics in a complex era.

Michael Horowitz, a former DoD official and current Penn expert on military technology, joins Lauren Kahn, a defense policy researcher at CSET. They delve into the complexities of AI in military operations, discussing its governance challenges and the pitfalls of drawing nuclear analogies. The conversation examines the transformative potential of AI, the nuances of its application in military workflows, and how historical lessons can inform current technology adoption. Ethical considerations and the impact of automation bias also feature prominently in this thought-provoking dialogue.

In this engaging discussion, Tarun Chhabra, Head of National Security Policy at Anthropic and former tech advisor to the President, emphasizes the importance of export controls to maintain a competitive edge over China in AI. He highlights the dual-use risks associated with advanced technology and the need for a coordinated approach between government and industry. Chhabra also explores the potential of AI in national security, the intersection of AI and biotech, and stresses a bipartisan strategy to foster innovation and address emerging threats.