ChinaTalk Where Japan Goes Next
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Jul 23, 2025 Tobias Harris, creator of the Observing Japan Substack and an analyst of Japanese politics, dives into the recent Japanese elections. He discusses the significant aftermath of Abe's assassination and how it reshaped the Liberal Democratic Party. The conversation highlights the rise of parties like Kōmeitō and DPFP, reflecting shifting voter sentiments. Harris also connects domestic political dynamics to U.S.-Japan and China-Japan relations, revealing the challenges faced by the current administration in a rapidly changing landscape.
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Abe's Death Shook LDP Foundation
- Abe's assassination exposed the Unification Church's political influence, causing scandal.
- This triggered financial scandals, dismantling the LDP's faction system and eroding public trust.
Abe's Era Reshaped Governance
- Abe's 2012 return marked a shift to centralized, top-down governance in Japan.
- Political reforms empowered the prime minister with agenda-setting and governing ability unseen before.
Inflation and Scandals Hurt LDP
- Inflation driven by supply shocks from a weak yen has squeezed Japanese households.
- The LDP is punished for seeming ineffective amid inflation and campaign finance scandals.