Betting on Chaos: Professionals in Prediction Markets

19 snips

Jul 29, 2025

Zuby Badger, also known as Jonathan Zubkoff, is a leading voice in the prediction markets landscape. He delves into how these markets can forecast political outcomes better than traditional analyses. They discuss why certain events attract massive trading volumes and the systematic biases present in these markets. Additionally, insights on the effects of insider trading regulations and the solo nature of trading practices are explored. Learn how betting markets can backfire and the role of AI in enhancing strategic insights.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

Alpha from Superior Research Speed

Success in prediction markets depends on researching faster and better than competitors.
Everyone starts equally, so alpha comes from superior, timely research and analysis.

INSIGHT

Prediction Markets as Skin-in-Game Punditry

Prediction markets provide a more disciplined form of punditry because participants have skin in the game.
Unlike regular pundits, traders are rewarded or punished based on the accuracy of their predictions.

INSIGHT

Prediction Markets Are Heading for Regulation

Regulation in prediction markets is likely inevitable due to insider trading and fraud concerns.
Markets handling sensitive national security events will probably face disclosure requirements.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

What does it take to make a living betting on politics? Can prediction markets offer insights about the future that other analyses cannot?

To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Domer, a professional prediction markets bettor. Domer is the number one trader by volume on Polymarket, and he’s been trading since 2007. He initially entered this world through poker, but now makes bets about who will win foreign elections, whether wars will start, and whether bills will become law.

We discuss…

Why some issues — like Romanian elections, the NYC mayoral race, or Zelenskyy’s outfit choices — can attract hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume,
Systematic biases in prediction markets, including why they overestimate the likelihood of a Taiwan contingency,
What happens to prediction markets in the absence of insider trading regulations,
Why prediction markets are still a solo endeavor, and what a profit-maximizing team of traders would look like,
Bonus: How betting markets backfired on Romanian nationalists, what AI can teach you about betting, and other insights on winning from one of Domer’s contemporaries.

Outro music: Bob Dylan - Rambling, Gambling Willie (YouTube Link)

This episode is brought to you by ElevenLabs. I’ve been on the hunt for years for the perfect reader app that puts AI audio at the center of its design. Over the past few months, the ElevenReader app has earned a spot on my iPhone's home screen and now gets about 30 minutes of use every day. I plow through articles using Eleven Reader’s beautiful voices and love having Richard Feynman read me AI news stories — as well as, you know, Matilda every once in a while, too.

I’m also a power user of its bookmark feature, which the ElevenReader team added after I requested it on Twitter. ChinaTalk’s newsletter content even comes preloaded in the feed.

Check out the ElevenReader app if you’re looking for the best mobile reader on the market. Oh, and by the way — if you ever need to transcribe anything, ElevenLabs’ Scribe model has transformed our workflow for getting transcripts out to you on the newsletter. It’s crossed the threshold from “95% good” to “99.5% amazing,” saving our production team hours every week. Check it out the next time you need something transcribed.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices