Upside

Upside is for anyone interested in the European tech and startup ecosystem. We discuss the real stories that live behind the headlines.Recorded: Friday August 1st 2025Hosts: VCs - Mads, Lomax, and Dan00:50 – Big Tech Earnings BlowoutsMassive Meta and MS uplift. Massive efficiency gains via AI, despite headcount cuts. Microsoft: $13B AI cloud run rate. Growth driven by CoPilot and Azure.11:20 – Fundamentally Flawed Figures Inflation sticky around 2.9%. Rates stuck. Why equity markets remain bullish despite macro pressure. AI productivity gains seen as the buffer against high rates. Not the dot-com? 17:42 – Europe’s No Mag7The sobering gap, but optimism for emerging EU-based players. Nurture “green shoots” of European innovation.18:34 – Markets - Figma IPO – Is SaaS Back?Massive Day 1 pop: from \$20B to \$65B market cap. 91% gross margin, 132% NDR, strong enterprise traction. Optimism for SaaS exits and public market appetite.26:27 – Markets - Anthropic vs. Figma – AI Valuations in ContextAnthropic at \$170B valuation (\~30x revenue).Contrasted with Figma’s 60x multiple. SaaS more stable; AI still in sandbox.27:23 – Markets - Return of Risk Appetite: Firefly & Space IPOsFirefly targeting a $5B IPO despite revenue.29:26 – Liberation Day 2.0 – Trump’s Trade Deal with the EU**EU commits to $750B in US energy, $600B in US manufacturing investment. Concern over EU sovereignty and realism of enforcement.37:54 – Implications for European StartupsSoftware firms largely unaffected. Hardware or hybrid firms need to rethink supply chains.Consumer hardware most at risk from tariffs.40:17 – Geopolitical Signalling and the Long GameEU’s long-term strategy will shift towards self-reliance and defence. Upside for local tech ecosystems.41:23 – AI Corner – Latest Deals & Developments.Anthropic: From $1B to $6B ARR in months. $5B raise underway.Alibaba: Launches Claude Code competitor for 1/60th the cost.Cognigy (Germany): Acquired for $1B by NICE (CX automation).n8n: Open source automation tool now valued at \$1.5B.OpenAI Study Mode: Personalised learning agents; education disruption incoming.47:26 – Is Germany Becoming Europe’s AI Leader?Germany, France, and the UK all seeing strong AI momentum. European AI isn’t centralised – strength lies in distributed hubs.50:01 – Why Billion-Dollar Exits Are No Longer a Big DealCognigy, Oxford Ionics → seen as “modest” compared to US mega-deals. Yet: exits like these power Europe’s VC ecosystem - billion-dollar exits still matter.51:00 – Project Europe – What Europe NeedsHarry Stebbings’ “Project Europe”: €200k per startup, under-25 founders.6 companies in batch one: drones, brain-computer interfaces, cybersecurity, robotics. Focused on deep tech and hard problems – not consumer fluff. A bet on Europe’s technical edge and early-stage ecosystem.56:30 – Challenges Ahead for Project EuropeAccelerators attract top-tier founders? Signalling risk? Success will require time, patient capital, and structural support.63:57 – Stopping the Brain DrainEU founders often register in the US, but real drain is sub-10%. IPO path must be restored in EU. Public markets offer cheaper capital vs. growth equity.65:30 – Deal(s) of the WeekCyberArk acquired by Palo Alto Networks for $25BProject Q (Germany) raises €7.5M for battlefield software. One to watch.

Upside - for the real stories behind the headlines affecting European Venture.In this week's episode:AI in Public Services - OpenAI and the UK govt sign dealThe US vs UK AI plans - how do they compare?Stablecoins - what are they really and why are they not in the UK?Deepmind wins the IMO maths competition - so what?Deal of the Week01:50 – AI in UK Government and Public ServicesUK government signs an MOU with OpenAI to explore AI in public services.Introduction of “Humphrey,” a ChatGPT-powered assistant for civil servants.03:21 – Will AI in Public Services Work?NHS could be a testbed for AI adoption, potentially with citizen opt-ins for faster treatments using AI technologies.05:26 – UK AI Plan and Public Sector ProductivityUK’s AI Opportunities Plan.Potential AI use cases: fraud prevention and efficiency in administrative tasks.08:24 – Challenges in Government AI Implementation09:27 – AI in NHS & HealthcareDebate on AI’s role in healthcare11:46 – UK Sovereignty & AI PartnershipsConcerns about reliance on US AI companies (OpenAI, Anthropic).13:03 – Is Reliance on US AI a Problem?Discussion on whether the UK should build its own foundational AI models.16:31 – National AI StrategiesDebate on the UK government’s responsibility to invest heavily in domestic AI.Comparison to the UK aerospace industry and state-backed R&D.19:26 – Comparing US and UK AI PlansOverview of both strategies:US: Innovation, leadership, and global dominance.UK: Sovereignty, public sector benefits, and homegrown champions.22:24 – Key Differences Between US and UK AI Approaches27:47 – What Should the UK Do Differently?Invest in national AI infrastructure. Mandate “buy UK first” for AI solutions.33:31 – AI in Large OrganizationsNorway’s sovereign wealth fund sees 20% efficiency gains using AI (Claude).36:01 – Transition to StablecoinsWhat they are and why they matter.41:02 – Dollar Dominance via StablecoinsStablecoins as a strategic tool to extend USD dominance.48:25 – Future of StablecoinsHow stablecoins will reshape DeFi, cross-border transactions, and payments.52:27 – AI Excels at MathematicsGoogle DeepMind and OpenAI achieve gold-level performance at the IMO (International Mathematical Olympiad). Significance: AI is moving from computation to creative problem-solving and advanced reasoning.55:47 – Implications of AI in Math & ScienceAI’s ability to solve complex math problems signals breakthroughs in R&D and engineering.58:14 – Philosophical Questions on AI ReasoningDebate on whether AI’s reasoning is “synthetic” or genuinely creative.AI’s utility matters more than its internal mechanics.59:33 – Deal of the WeekKeywords: AI, public services, OpenAI, UK government, healthcare, stablecoins, financial system, mathematics, funding, trade deals.

UPSIDE - For the week's *real news* behind the headlines affecting European venture.If curious about startups, investing, venture capital, innovation, AI, and all things going on in and around Europe - that's what this weekly roundup is all about.Hosts: Lomax from Outsized Ventures with Mads and myself from SuperSeed VCOn this week's show:04:02 – Shout out for EU Inc and The 28th RegimeLegal fragmentation in Europe increases friction and costs for pre-seed and seed funding. Comparison to US (Delaware + SAFE) vs. Europe’s notary-heavy systems.Potential savings of €350–500M annually by reducing legal overhead. ESOP (employee share options) complexity highlighted as a major barrier.09:55 – The United States of EuropeEU Inc. could be a “small first step” toward a unified European market post-Brexit. Lobbying from notaries and national interests creates significant resistance. Watered down is as good as not at all.15:14 – AI Corner: Huge AI news this weekMira Murati’s new startup raises $2B from A16Z, Nvidia, AMD. China’s Moonshot AI (Kimi 2) - 1T parameter open-source LLM outperforming Anthropic’s Opus 4 on coding tasks. Europe is trailing the US and China in foundational AI, but vertical AI and apps offer big opportunities.25:28 – The Application Layer BoomLovable Raised $200M at $1.8B valuation** with 75M ARR in 8 months.AI application companies like Tandem Health and Legora are scaling rapidly.31:51 – Apple Rumoured to Acquire Mistral?$15B acquisition? Would be the largest European AI exit, but raises sovereignty concerns in France.36:12 – UK Government ReformsRachel Reeves’ speeches: Streamlined reporting, pushing pension funds into riskier assets, and supporting LSE listings - symbolic or game-changing?42:21 – Crypto Week in the USBitcoin hits $120K as three major US crypto acts debated: Clarity Act, Genius Act, Anti-CBDC Act. Europe already has MiCA regulations but lacks a cohesive narrative. But should we have our own Crypto week?48:19 – European VC at 10-Year Low2025 projections: $10B VC capital raised. Solutions: Unlock pension capital, simplify retail VC access, and recycle returns from big exits like Mistral.54:28 – Deal of the Week: NumanMen’s D2C health startup: Raised $57M (30M equity + 27M debt). Pivoted to GLP-1-based weight-loss products, doubling revenue to $90M in 2024.56:16 – Closing Thoughts.

Upside for the real news behind the headlines affecting European Venture.This week: Is defence the only game in town? Any moral lines? Has Germany nailed its return to growth? OpenAI at peak LLM? Search engine wars are back! Does WFH kill culture, a tariff check in (already out of date!), EU fines and big tech - will we get the good sh*t? 00:00 – Welcome & RundownDan, Mads & Lomax set the scene: Europe’s defence startup boom, OpenAI’s new browser play, WFH vs. culture, Trump’s ever-shifting tariffs, UK H1 VC stats, and Big Tech vs. EU regulators.04:21 – Euro uplift €6.5b in June FundingEurope’s tech raises hit €6.5 billion across 323 deals; UK led with 30% (€1.95B) but dipped 18% MoM, while Germany surged past the UK on deep-tech, quantum, energy robotics & aerospace.05:40 – Defence vs. Resilience vs. Dual-UseWhat’s the difference? Defence = pure military; resilience = protecting society (cyber-security→critical infrastructure); dual-use = tech with both civilian & military applications.07:41 – German Market on FireDAX +22% YTD: Industrials up 30% (Rheinmetall, Airbus), Financials +16% on easing rates, Tech +14% via AI plays (SAP) & EV chip leader Infineon - autos and pharma lags.08:46 – Founder Caution in DefenceBudgets may double to €1 trillion, but only ~5–10% goes to R&D, procurement is slow, buyers are few & timelines clash - “proceed with caution” is the advice.10:56 – Defence Moral DebateIs it OK to back companies making weapons? Europe’s “sleepy time under US umbrella” ends do we agree protecting citizens and way of life is a moral imperative?17:03 – OpenAI’s Browser BetWith 3b Chrome users feeding Google $200 B/yr in search ad profit, OpenAI’s upcoming “AI browser” could unlock ad revenue ($1B ’26; $25B ’29) by capturing click & intent data.19:16 – Search Engine Wars Are Back AGAIN Beyond ChatGPT: Grok 4 (hooked to X), Perplexity’s Comet, and generative SEO shake up distribution—from keyword tags to “GEO” (Generative Engine Optimisation).31:28 – Does WFH Kill Culture?Values ≠ behaviours: true culture is “expected actions.” Zoom can’t replace serendipity, mentoring & rapid knowledge-share that happen when teams sit shoulder-to-shoulder.40:59 – Trump’s Tariff Tracker“90 deals in 90 days” fizzled - only UK, Vietnam & China. EU deadline pushed to August; Brazil hit with 50%; US aiming for $300b in tariff revenue.48:39 – UK H1 VC Snapshot£8 B raised (AI startups 30%), beats Germany & France combined; 188 unicorns (71 private) worth £230b; Oxford/Cambridge/Cardiff each hit £1b.56:57 – Will Europe get the good stuff if we keep fining and controlling? EU vs. Big Tech. Apple appeals €500m App-Store fine; Google races to comply with the DMA (10% global-revenue penalty); EU’s proposed chat back-door sparks mass-surveillance concerns.58:28 – Deal of the Week: Eutelsat €1.35 B RaiseFrance & UK gov’ts back a pan-European LEO+GEO satellite operator to rival Starlink - €1.35 B shows Europe’s push for sovereign space resilience.1:00:43 – Parting BytesAndrew’s rooting for “pet-emotion AI” (Purosense AI’s seed round); Mads eyes Nvidia’s Q2 (ASML report on July 16); Lomax plans LP visits - and everyone’s beach-office-envious!

🎙️ Upside #EP— IPOs, AI vs Doctors, London’s Trouble & The Internet’s Future⏱️ 02:30 – Figma’s IPO & European StakesFiling in NYC after failed Adobe acquisition$800M+ revenue, 91% margins, 132% NDR$5B Index Ventures paydayWhy this matters for Euro tech⏱️ 08:50 – London’s IPO DisasterWorst first half in nearly 30 years: only $160M raisedAstraZeneca flirting with a US listingCan London come back?25+ years of decline traced to pension reform post-Maxwell scandal⏱️ 14:10 – UK vs US Markets: Staggering ComparisonUS market cap: $60T vs UK: $3TTech in FTSE 100: only 1%Apple alone = FTSE 100Institutional apathy + structural rot⏱️ 18:00 – Pension Power & Mansion House DebateUK pension funds hold just 5% in UK equities£40B in annual tax breaks not translating into local investmentNeed for regulatory overhaul to unlock capital⏱️ 22:00 – Fixing the Public MarketsPublic markets *should* be the exit pathWithout them, the entire private capital waterfall stallsStagnation in public exits affects tax receipts, job creation, and the UK ecosystem⏱️ 25:45 – European Equities SurgeBiggest outperformance vs US stocks on record€46B inflows in 2025 vs €66B outflows in 2024Germany wakes up: €500B in infrastructure & defence spendSustainable or a short-term Trump-driven rotation?⏱️ 32:00 – UK Budget Black Hole£5B budget gap after Labour’s U-turnHighest tax burden since WWIISocial care + NHS = nearly 50% of budgetStuck between tax pledges, borrowing risks, and spending pressures⏱️ 41:00 – UK Future - 3-PathsStasis: stealth taxes, zero reformsFurther decline: shrinking influenceRecovery: bold reforms in pensions, NHS tech, and civil service productivityWhat road will we take?⏱️ 46:30 – EU AI Act: Incoming Train Wreck?Set for August rollout, but 44 major firms ask for pauseMissed code-of-practice deadline - What do we do?Healthcare, finance, and SaaS startups at riskGDPR 2.0 on steroids?⏱️ 52:45 – Can We Save the Open Web?Cloudflare’s bold move to gate AI scrapingAPI-first monetisation and licensing models emerging⏱️ 57:45 – AI vs DoctorsMicrosoft benchmark: AI got 80% of diagnoses right vs doctors’ 20%The end for doctors?Regulation, infrastructure, and explainability still big hurdles⏱️ 01:05:00 – Deal of the Week: Portal Biotech$35M Series A led by Earlybird + NATO Innovation FundProtein sequencing tech spun out of University of GroningenHopes to be “the Illumina of proteins”A deeptech win for Europe

🎙️ Episode Highlights00:00 – Market Pulse: We’re So Back Baby! US IPOs are red-hot (CoreWeave, Circle), S&P nearly at ATH, and Q2 GDP forecasts hit 3.5%. The resurgence in AI and crypto-led optimism despite fiscal clouds.03:00 – Bubble or Boom? Are we heading into bubble territory? US deficits are ballooning, but M&A tailwinds and LP liquidity look promising.05:00 – The Sentiment Effect Economic psychology: consumer sentiment drives GDP. Europe’s problem? It talks itself down. The US? Belief + boldness.06:50 – Big Tech Bets on Britain Amazon pledges £40B UK investment (data centres, fulfilment, even a film studio). British Business Bank expands to £25B. Visma chooses London IPO over Nasdaq—confidence win?14:00 – UK’s 10-Year Industrial Push Gov’t targets AI, defence, creative, and energy—aiming to slash grid connection delays. Electricity costs still a major drag. Can policy execution catch up to rhetoric?18:00 – The UK’s Economic Reality Check High inflation + stagnant growth = stagflation-lite. £66B in working-age benefits forecast by 2029. Labour’s internal revolt blocks real reform.27:00 – Tariff Tensions Mount Trump trade wars return: EU braces for July 9 deadline. Retaliation looms. Could German auto exports be the pressure point?32:00 – AI in the Wild Apple eyes Perplexity. DocuSign sues scrappy 2-day clone. Seed-strapped startups exit for millions without VC - Paradigm shift or PR hype?37:00 – Copyright Battles Begin Meta & Anthropic win round one using “transformative use” defence. The big legal fight (OpenAI vs NYT) still looms.41:00 – Robotaxi Rollout? Tesla demos driverless fleet in Austin - damp squib? Still lagging Waymo. Real progress or just share-price theatre?43:00 – Europe’s Bay Area Dream Can Europe become Silicon Valley? Should we can we? It’s not about funding - it’s confidence, imagination, and embracing failure.51:00 – Optimism Please! Q2 earnings optimism and promising chip efficiency breakthroughs. Markets strong, founders bold, and Europe's moment (maybe) coming.

🎙️ Upside 45 Podcast – “Defence, Dirty Deals, and Disruption”This week EU defence spend motors - will it save us?European Space Agency military satellites US-China competition - European opportunity?US IPOs up 30% this year, so far, so whatBritish surgical robotics start-up -> sell-out⏱️ [01:13] – Geopolitical Hotspots and DefenceIran’s global influence and diasporaUkraine’s resistance to Israel-Iran dynamicsCautious optimism about regime change WWIII has begun?⏱️ [03:35] – Oil & Markets Brent crude spikes (from $70 → $77, possibly $100+) Shipping, inflation, and interest rates affected Bank of England holds rates amid uncertainty⏱️ [05:52] – Impact on Venture?Founders not immediately impacted, but long-term capital flow risks flaggedDefence tension might dry up funding or shift VC attention⏱️ [06:56] – Defence as a European Economic Engine?Defence our financial lifeline? But VC exposure to defence is tiny⏱️ [09:35] – Unicorns in EU Defense Tech3 recent unicorns: Helsing, Tekever, Quantum SystemsHelsing shifts gearVCs rush in - BUT Sales cycles, procurement, regulation⏱️ [12:38] – Helsing’s Capital & The VC Taboo US firms: Lightspeed, Accel, General Catalyst Homegrown capital is crucial to reducing 10x funding gap with USEIF restricts arms/weapons investmentsHelsing’s value as a “reference company” for LPs⏱️ [18:51] – ESA’s Satellite PlansEU Space Agency wants €1B+ to build military satellite network.⏱️ [22:15] – Iris vs Starlink ContextIris <> StarlinkEU must move fast on sovereignty or risk dependence⏱️ [23:59] – NASA Cuts vs ESA BudgetsNASA’s proposed 25% cutEurope’s ESA increasing funding—ironically divergent paths⏱️ [25:52] – China, Trade Wars, and Supply ChainsEU’s dependence on Chinese imports (clean tech, chemicals) Fear of trade dumping post US-China de-coupling Rare earth constraints impacting defence and auto industries⏱️ [29:45] – Tariff TimelinesJuly 9 tariff decisionPotential EU-US mini deal to avoid Trump’s punitive tariffsPharmaceuticals next⏱️ [32:00] – IPO Boom in the US Chime, Circle, CoreWeave IPOs—massive post-IPO pops Klarna leads EU pipeline⏱️ [34:04] – IPO vs Private CapitalBill Gurley’s hatred of bankersPrivate markets still offering better valuationsSPACs are back!⏱️ [36:25] – Surgical Robots and CMR SurgicalCMR (Cambridge Medical Robotics)Raised $1B, now eyeing $4B exitPremature exitCMR’s potential lostScale homegrown tech more aggressively⏱️ [44:45] – Deed of the WeekDaniel Ek’s €600M into HelsingParis-based Nabla raises $70M Series CScale AI deal closes in one weekFastest capital deployment of its kind; no FTC review needed⏱️ [49:05] – Founders in GovernmentAlex Depledge named UK entrepreneurship advisorPraise for founders like Matt Clifford shaping UK tech policy⏱️ [51:10] – Meta’s AI Talent WarMeta’s aggressive poaching of OpenAI talentAI job market likened to football transfer seasonPay off or backfire?

Upside - The *real* stories affecting European Venture.This week Mads, Lomax and I discuss: AI cybercrime, UK govt investing in tech/AI, cheap energy (nuclear isn't), Tesla’s RoboFail, 996 and founder work-life balance, AI growth but is the revenue good? and the shock flip between private vs. public markets.01:24 – Cyber-Security: Rising Threats 43 % of UK businesses hit by cyber-crime last year; avg. of 2,000 attacks/week in Q1 2025. 02:07 – AI-Enabled Attacks & Geopolitical Impact AI tools lower the barrier for sophisticated attacks by state-sponsored or rogue actors - new front in modern warfare by economic disruption.04:12 – Kinetic vs. Cyber Warfare The mix of traditional (kinetic) and cyber fronts.07:20 – Government Spending Review: Big Picture Rachel Reeves’s 3-year spending framework amid a weak UK economy: £120bn on infrastructure; £43bn for science & innovation; £2bn AI Action Plan.16:50 – Energy Landscape & Nuclear The UK’s high industrial energy costs (6× US); sovereignty & intermittency issues; nuclear offers clean baseload and sovereignty but at what cost?19:21 – Fusion & Long-Term Energy Tech Recent fusion advances (Tokamak West’s 22 min plasma) and Proxima Fusion’s €130 m Series A, but 20 yr horizon remains.25:51 – Tesla’s Robotaxi Roll-Out Tesla’s delayed Austin launch (moved from June 12→22); cost comparison vs. Waymo.28:34 – Europe’s AV Landscape: The Brexit Dividend Wayve’s UK partnerships (Nissan, Uber, spring 2026 trial at L4 autonomy) versus EU’s slower L2/3 regs.32:26 – Founder Work Ethic Debate Heated talk around “996” & extreme hustle: Lomax quotes Paul Graham on youth vs. age advantages.37:00 – AI Revenue Growth & SustainabilityLLM businesses doubling revenue every 2 months; examples: Anysphere’s $500m ARR, Lovable’s €61m ARR; concerns around gross margins, churn & long-term profitability.46:14 – Private vs. Public Market Performance First time in 25 yrs that private markets underperform public across 1/3/5/10 yr horizons (State Street report): “Magnificent 7” driving public returns. A shake-out & opportunity ahead as private seeks its illiquidity premium.52:00 – Notable DealsMultiverse (ES) – €189m Series B for LLM compression tech (95 % size reduction)Oxford Ionics → IonQ – $1bn+ acquisition of UK trapped-ion quantum spin-out55:47 – Closing & Condolences Dan sends thoughts to those affected by the Air India crash, and wraps up with thanks and next-week teasers.

Hosts: Dan Bowyer, Lomax Ward, Mads Jensen.The real news behind the headlines affecting European Venture.ECB interest rate cuts, IPO market divergence, AI copyright tension, UK Strategic Defence Review, and the NHS starts liquid biopsies.00:58 – ECB Rate Cuts: So what for Europe and Startups?8 rate cuts in 12 months signals easing. EU’s sub-2% inflation vs. US’s higher inflation + deficit (~7% of GDP).Fiscal strength = leverage for defence and energy investment.04:34 – Capital Flows & SentimentWill a weaker euro drive more capital to riskier assets?05:27 – Contrasting the US Volatility vs. EU StabilityVolatility in the US makes EU relatively attractive, but low EU growth remains a concern. Lower rates long-term can push capital into startups and infrastructure.07:21 – IPO Markets: A Tale of Two CitiesUS IPO market is booming (+80%), UK (-80%). 143 US IPOs vs. 5 UK IPOs YTD. $13B raised in US vs. ummm £75M in UK?!09:11 – Why is the UK IPO Scene Lagging?US market cap ~17x that of UK; daily trading 50x more.12:35 – Pisces Liquidity Schemes: Public vs. Private Market DebatePisces—a new semi-liquid scheme for startup equity. Private markets aren’t built for public-style trading. Carta tried—failed.15:11 – Systemic Decline of London’s Public MarketFrom ~1/3 the size of S&P 500 in 2007 to 1/17 today. Staggering numbers.21:49 – UK Defence Review: Investment & OpportunityNew £87B plan over 10 years. Will it benefit startups? Still heavily physical (~80%), but £400M earmarked for innovation.28:24 – Sovereign Tech & Europe's Defence RoleIs £400M enough? Contextualised vs. Anduril’s $2.5B raise.37:08 – AI Infrastructure in EuropeLinks defence with economic growth. EU's €20B AI Superfactory plans underway; Germany’s first data cluster. Huge challenge: power costs & permitting.40:19 – NHS Liquid Biopsies: Tech Meets Real-World HealthcareNHS rolling out liquid biopsy for lung/breast cancer patients. Huge potential.45:54 – The Case for Healthcare Tech EfficiencyNHS productivity is down despite 14% spending increase since 2019.46:12 – Deals of the WeekMUBI: UK-based streaming platform raises $100M from Sequoia.Beckley Psytech & Atai merger: A pivotal moment for psychedelics + mental health.Grammarly: $1B non-dilutive raise led by General Catalyst; Ukrainian roots, US-led round.Until next week fine people...

Trade Wars, Tariffs, and Tech Shifts – The Big Picture Shaping European StartupsWith Dan Bowyer, Mads Jensen & Lomax Ward00:00 – Intro: The Need to Talk TariffsDan kicks off the episode with a reminder: No groans, we need to talk tariffs.Taco tariffs, international trade deals, and looming US-EU trade tensions.00:29 – Federal Judges, EU-US Trade, and Startup ImpactsThe EU-US trade deal cajoled activity: what does it mean for investors, startups, and Europe?00:59 – Lomax’s Context: The Behemoth US-EU Trade Relationship$1.5 trillion annual trade; US-EU dwarfs US-China.Why has there never been a formal trade deal? Regulatory misalignments and subsidy wars (Airbus-Boeing).Harmonisation of standards as a critical issue—hardware startups especially at risk.02:12 – Regulatory Divergence and Why It MattersEU’s precautionary principle vs. US’s risk-based model.Trade deals aren't just tariffs—harmonising standards can unlock growth.03:50 – Hardware Startups & the Tariff Threat10% of EU startups are hardware—“they will struggle if tariffs hit 50%.”04:28 – The China & Russia Factor in Trade RebalancingTrump’s chaotic policies, stock markets up despite tariff shocks.06:01 – Inflation, Deficits, and Market VolatilityResidual tariffs could push US inflation by .5-1%.“Congress looking to add $3-4 trillion over 10 years.”The importance of EU sophistication in trade negotiations08:55 – Direct vs. Indirect Impact on StartupsTariffs affect hardware directly; inflation and interest rates indirectly.Interest rates impact M&A, liquidity, DPI, and venture capital flows.11:27 – Markets’ Schism: Bond Traders vs. Equity InvestorsBond traders panic over risk; equity investors bet on AI’s promise.12:09 – Trump’s Amplifier Effect: Deregulation vs. ChaosThe paradox of Trump’s anti-regulation stance fuelling optimism vs. destabilisation.13:42 – EU’s Startup & Scale-Up Strategy: Will It Work?€10B blended fund, blue carpet initiative for talent, regulatory simplification.17:23 – The Slow Pace of EU Policy: 2026-27 TimelinesLomax: “28th regime sounds like a Robert Harris novel—big thanks to Andreas Klinger for pushing it.”19:50 – Employee Stock Options: Europe’s Broken SystemThe need for harmonisation—“It’s key to unlocking talent.”21:49 – Big Tech Announcements: AI’s VelocityGoogle I/O, Microsoft Build, Nvidia’s blowout quarter.AI’s exponential growth—“50x increase in token processing in a year.”27:30 – The Application Layer: Opportunities and DisruptionsAI’s impact on startup building: velocity of product cycles, risk of obsolescence.Dan: “Will SaaS die as AI tools empower in-house builds?”36:54 – OpenAI + Johnny Ive: Hardware, Form Factors, and SpeculationA $6.5B stock deal, secretive hardware project—pendant? Phone? Glasses? A new paradigm?“I hope it’s not a pendant!”39:10 – The Race for the Next Form FactorApple’s stagnation; OpenAI’s ambition to dethrone them.41:10 – Wrap-Up: EU Urgency, Munich’s Tech Momentum, and the Week AheadMunich as a growing hub: TSMC, Apple, Quantum Systems.Lomax: “Bright Flag’s $425M exit is a big deal for the European ecosystem.”