The shifting sands of geopolitics, defence tech, and AI — and what it all means for European startups, investors, and the broader ecosystem. From Germany’s defence splurge to Trump’s tariff theatrics and the commoditisation of LLMs, this one spans continents and controversies.🧵 Topics CoveredLiberation Day (US): What does Trump’s tariff agenda mean for European startups? Is it just noise, or should we be worried about supply chain shock and retaliatory regulation?European Defence Tech Boom: Germany’s lifted debt ceiling, tanks from Volkswagen, and defence ETFs surging 70-170%. Is this the economic unlock Europe’s been waiting for? Will the flood of money fuel true innovation, or just line the pockets of the usual suspects?The Dual-Use Dilemma: AI startups becoming “peace tech” and the sudden defence pivot — are we heading for a repeat of the blockchain hype cycle? What does real opportunity look like in this space?The AI Opportunity – or Not? Inspired by Nicolas Colin’s Drift Signal piece, the gang debates: Can Europe play a Japan-in-the-‘80s role in the AI era by winning at the application layer? Or is that wishful thinking?Pension Power in VC: UK’s Mansion House Compact and the potential influx of pension capital into venture. Will it finally trickle down to true innovation?TikTok Shop & Bezos’ Moves: What’s Amazon doing cozying up to Trump? Is TikTok’s forced sale the ultimate VC party round?📊 Data Points0.007%: UK pension allocation to VC5%: Targeted allocation by 2030 under the Mansion House Compact25,000 parts: Average number in a modern car — a tariff tangle waiting to happenUp to 170%: Growth in defence ETF performance400M: Capital raised by ISAR for its (exploding) rocket launch30 AI avatars: H&M replaces human models in new campaign50%+: US consumer share of GDP — explains the political calculus behind tariffs📝 Show Notes Extras📖 Recommended Read: Nicolas Colin's “Who Will Be the Japan of the AI Era?” on Drift Signal📈 Theororm’s Report: Resilience sector is up 30% in Europe while overall VC is down 45%🧠 Trivia: The UK launched a satellite into orbit before the EU ever did… back in 1971. RIP Black Arrow.🎙️ Upside: The Real Stories Behind The Headlines Affecting European VentureHosts:Dan (SuperSeed VC)Lomax (Outsized)Andrew (7%) (Mads is away enjoying cherry blossoms in Japan 🌸)

🎙️ Upside: The Real Stories Behind European Venture🎧 In This EpisodeJoin Dan, Lomax, and Mads, with special guest Alex Macdonald (founder of Sequel and investor), for an opinion-packed episode exploring:🔦 Project Europe: Can It Save European Founders?Alex shares his insider take as an LP in Project Europe — why he committed in 11 minutes, what makes it different, and how it's supporting founders before they become credentialed.A passionate discussion around access, age, credentials, and whether early-stage capital is the bottleneck (spoiler: it isn’t).Addressing the diversity backlash: Is it fair or misguided?The million-euro question: How do we keep the next Revolut or Stripe in Europe?💊 23andMe’s Collapse: The Business Model That Wasn’tWhat went wrong with one of the most high-potential datasets in history?Can health tech ever monetize patient data responsibly — and is “collecting data” a real strategy?🧬 Data, DNA & Deletion RegretDan and Alex reflect on being early 23andMe users, deleting their data, and what happens when personal info is hacked.Plus: A warning for startups assuming data is always monetisable.📉 Spring Statement Reactions: A Missed Moment for Growth?Rachel Reeves delivers... not much.The group unpacks why cutting towards breakeven might not be the answer, and why we need fiscal stimulus, not fiddling.Why “holding patterns” in policy could hurt more than they help.🤖 AI Corner: DeepSeek vs. Gemini vs. ReveOpenAI’s rumoured $40B raise (led by SoftBank)DeepSeek’s new V3: small model, big resultsGemini finally feels usable — is Google back in the race?Reve: The MidJourney killer?Plus: The growing copyright vs. innovation battle in training data.🚨 Startup Scandals & Fraud WatchBuilder.ai’s CEO steps down amid audit concerns11X under fire: Churn, fake logos, inflated ARR — or just messy scaling?Where’s the line between "founder storytelling" and straight-up Theranos?Dan dubs it: “The Orange Jumpsuit List” (aka Forbes 30 Under 30)🇺🇸 US Brand Damage: Does It Matter in Europe?From Trump to Tesla, has America’s “brand” hit long-term trouble?Emotional vs. structural consequencesWhat defence tech buyers and governments are really worried aboutShould Europe decouple — and can it?💥 Deal of the WeekMarvel Fusion (Germany) raises €112M Series B/C for nuclear fusion techA rare bright spot for European deep tech growth capital📌 Highlights“Europe doesn't lack founders. It lacks belief.” — Alex Macdonald“23andMe had 15 million people's DNA and still couldn’t build a business.” — Lomax“Rachel Reeves is doing the startup equivalent of multiple shallow layoffs.” — Dan“Failure is a feature, not a bug. Let a thousand flowers bloom.” — Mads“Consumers might forget. Governments won’t.” — Lomax on US brand damage“Where is the money? Still a good question.” — All02:04 – Europe’s Biggest Company Is… SAP?03:25 – 23andMe Files for Bankruptcy07:33 – Project Europe Deep Dive25:08 – Spring Statement Reactions34:29 – AI Corner - deep seek, Gemini and Reve42:15 – Startup Scandals48:52 – Brand Damage58:52 – Deal of the Week

Hosts: Dan, Lomax (Outsized), Andrew J Scott (7%), Mads (SuperSeed VC) Runtime: ~48 minutes Topic: Markets, M&A, AI mayhem, longevity hype, startup espionage — and a little bit of Bryan Johnson's bedtime routine.🔍 This Week on Upside:We’re going full spectrum this week: markets moving, EVs charging faster than ever, biblical-level AI revelations, Google splashing the cash, and even MI5 making a guest appearance (kind of). The crew breaks down what’s really happening in European tech and beyond.💸 Markets CornerKlarna Files for IPO – Targeting $15B valuation, down from $45B in 2021 but still a major move for European fintech.CoreWeave’s Massive Leap – From $16M to $1.9B revenue in 2 years and acquiring Weights & Biases for $1.7B. IPO incoming.Google x Wiz – Google’s record $23B acquisition of Israeli cybersecurity firm Wiz. Massive exit, but will the FTC let it slide?⚡ EV WatchBYD’s Battery Breakthrough – 5-minute charge for 470km? Game-changing for the industry. Tesla and Mercedes scrambling to keep up.Tesla Recall Woes – Cybertrucks recalled due to panels potentially peeling off mid-highway. Not ideal.🍽️ Food, Forever?Bryan Johnson’s “Foodome” Vision – Sequencing the American diet like the human genome. Lofty or legit?ZOE’s churn problem – Are personalized nutrition startups sticky enough?UPF, Sugar Taxes, and Regulation – The gang debates whether real change comes from startups… or governments.🧠 AI CornerAI Jesus Speaks (a.k.a. Jensen Huang) – Nvidia’s GTC: new chips (Blackwell Ultra, Vera Rubin, Feynman) and bullish takes on reasoning + agentic AI.Stargate vs. AIP – OpenAI’s mega-scale GPU buildout vs. Elon Musk’s counterplay with Microsoft, UAE, and BlackRock.Europe Reacts – Macron’s €100B+ bet on sovereign AI and the case for Mistral leading Europe’s AI frontier.🇪🇺 Europe in FocusData centers are consuming up to 30% of Ireland’s electricityEuropean VCs (hello Index Ventures 👋) are behind some of the biggest tech exits everDoes Europe need its own AI stack? The guys debate strategic autonomy vs. commoditized smarts🔐 Startup Espionage FilesRippling vs. Deel, Flexport vs. FreightMate – Dirty tactics, source code theft, and lawsuits flying.Dan's MI5 Story – An underground bunker, bugs from the CCP, and a face-to-face with British intelligence.Lessons from the frontlines – Where does know-how end and IP theft begin? What happens when founders cross lines?💤 Longevity, Sleep & 7PM BryanBryan Johnson’s hyperbaric adventures, shocking news (literally), and… nighttime erections?Why “7PM Bryan” is the biggest threat to longevityCan Europe’s emerging “longevity clinic” wave go mainstream?🎧 Memorable Quotes“At some point, we’re going to wake up and realise the food system was as damaging as cigarettes.” – Lomax “We should invent our own future, not copy the US.” – Andrew J. Scott “20% of Ireland’s electricity goes to data centres — heading to 30%.” – Lomax “Only the paranoid survive.” – Dan

The UK’s Cost-Cutting Drive – DOGE'esque?UK government’s plan to cut civil service costs using AI-driven efficiencies. Public sector pensions estimated between £2.5-5 trillion – is cost-cutting enough? Will AI and startups play a role in optimising government spending? Project Europe – Can It Keep Talent From Leaving?20VC’s Harry Stebbings launches Project Europe to fund under-25s with €200K for startups. Inspired by the Peter Thiel Fellowship, but will it stop US firms poaching European talent? Lomax questions if we need more pre-seed funding or if growth capital is the real gap. Mads gives a history lesson on how Europe fell behind the US in venture capital.AI Corner: Anthropic, Manus, & Google's Larry Page ReturnsAnthropic scales annualised revenue from $1B to $1.4B in three months. Manus.im emerges as a powerful AI agentic platform (built on Claude 3.7). Larry Page launches Dynatomics, an AI startup focused on manufacturing. Microsoft explores alternatives to OpenAI, testing DeepSeek for Co-Pilot. Mistral shifts focus from LLMs to AI applications (finance, OCR, and tables).The Market Meltdown – MAG7 Down $2.7 TrillionNvidia, Tesla, and others take a hit, erasing trillions in market value. Meta is the only MAG7 stock that didn’t drop. Could Trump’s tariff-driven trade wars be purposefully fuelling market volatility? Is this a short-term dip, or are we heading into a full-blown recession?IPOs & M&A – Are We Finally Back?63 IPOs in the US this year – up 90% from last year, but uncertainty looms. CoreWeave and Hinge Health file for IPOs, but timing may not be ideal. Figma, once blocked from an Adobe acquisition, now eyes public markets. The AI-powered startup Moveworks exits to ServiceNow for nearly $3B.Deals of the WeekLomax’s pick: Thorizon (Netherlands) raises €12M for next-gen nuclear reactors.Dan’s pick: Stroll (France) raises €12M for AR-powered neurorehabilitation.Digital therapeutics are making a comeback after a tough few years.

Upside Podcast: Defence, Health Tech & The Future of European VentureThis week on Upside, Dan Bowyer (SuperSeed VC) is joined by Lomax (Outsized) and Peter Ward (Humanity) to dive into two major themes dominating European venture: defence and health tech. With Mads away running up hills in Spain with fellow VCs and LPs, the trio take a no-holds-barred approach to dissecting the latest developments shaping investment, technology, and geopolitics.1. Welcome & Introductions (00:12)2. Defence & European Venture (02:22)The geopolitical impact of US halting aid to Ukraine: What does it mean for European defence startups?The rise of defence ETFs and their influence on VC investment.Trump, NATO, and the potential ripple effects on European security.The growing relevance of Turkey in European defence strategies.Europe’s defence budgets are growing, but how fast can startups access the market?The challenge of military procurement and its implications for defence tech startups.3. Private Capital & Defence Innovation (06:32)The role of dual-use technology in military applications.The ethical dilemmas of investing in defence technology.Drone warfare: The boom in anti-drone and drone swarm tech.Lomax’s insights on the procurement challenge and opportunities for startups.Dan’s first-hand experience in Ukraine delivering medical supplies.4. Trumponomics & European Startups (22:37)Trump's proposed tariffs on the EU and potential supply chain shocks.How this could drive inflation, stagflation, and impact fundraising for startups.The anti-American sentiment in Europe and its impact on consumer and business purchasing decisions.Opportunities for EU startups to capitalise on this shift.Will founders move to the US earlier to escape potential trade barriers?5. The Future of Health Tech in Europe (30:37)A new breakthrough in immune system research: Could it revolutionise antibiotics?The rise of AI in drug discovery and early diagnostics.Humanity’s work with Imperial College London: Predicting disease and biological age with just four blood markers.Personalized medicine: How it will transform healthcare systems.The booming investment landscape: $7B invested in health tech in Europe last year vs. $23B in the US.Neko Health, Function Health, and the billion-dollar Series A from Retro Biosciences.6. Deals of the Week (44:31)Alpine Eagle ($10M seed, UK): Drone blocking and attacking tech.CloudSmith (Series B, Belfast): Cloud software security startup.Quintexa ($175M Series F, UK): AI-powered anti-money laundering and fraud detection.

Euro Grind, Google Grind, and Startup Hustle.As normal we dig behind the headlines to discuss the real stories affecting European venture. With Dan Bowyer, Mads Jensen, Andrew Scott and Karin Nielsen.The State of European Tech vs. the U.S.Karin’s reflections on her trip to San Francisco and the stark contrast in optimism between the U.S. and the UK.The resurgence of hustle culture in the U.S. and what Europe can learn from it.Funding Gaps & European Venture TrendsStripe’s annual letter highlights European productivity challenges and regulatory barriers.The need for European capital market reforms to boost startup funding.Discussion on whether Europe should adopt a ‘Buy European’ strategy.AI Advancements & Enterprise AdoptionThe launch of Claude 3.7 by Anthropic and GPT-4.5 by OpenAI: Are these models delivering real breakthroughs?China’s AI strategy and the impact of DeepSeek’s pricing strategy on global AI competition.The challenges enterprises face in adopting AI, from legacy systems to regulatory concerns.The Future of Work & The ‘Grind’ DebateSergey Brin’s push to bring Googlers back to the office: Should startups embrace remote work or office culture?The debate over whether European startups work hard enough and whether remote work fosters or hinders hustle.Insights from Karin on how remote-first startups can thrive with the right culture and tools.AI’s Impact on Venture CapitalWill AI-driven deal sourcing make VCs obsolete, or will brand and relationships matter more than ever?The shift towards hyper-personalised outreach and the rise of X (formerly Twitter) as a key VC-founder networking tool.Why AI-powered investing will still require human intuition to identify outlier founders.Deal of the Week: LovableThe meteoric rise of Lovable, Europe’s fastest-growing startup.From launch to $17M ARR in 18 months: What’s behind its explosive growth?The future of AI-powered no-code solutions and their impact on SaaS.

In this episode of Upside, hosts Dan and Mads from SuperSeed are joined by Ben Prade, Partner at GP Bullhound. Topics covered:State of European Venture Capital Geopolitics & VC - the Munich Security Conference, JD Vance, European autonomy in defence and tech, China filling the voidVC Fundraising & LPsAI and defence are hot baby! Shift from US pension to government cash, VCs must engage in ecosystem building, economic policies influencing VC strategies.The Future of European VC European VC has outperformed the US in IRR (20.8% vs 18.2%) over the last decade. We're nailing AI, Fusion and Quantum.Quantum: Hype vs RealityMicrosoft's Majorana 1 Quantum Chip, cautious optimism, power PR and viable quantum computing by 2030.Grok 3 Grok 3 is out, speed and benchmarks vs Claude and GPT 4.5.FusionFrance’s CEA West Tokamak reactor sets a new record with 22 minutes of continuous fusion, limitless clean energy, realistic timelines for commercial fusion.Startup Funding Dynamics - Go big early?Peter Walker’s Carta report:Theory 1: AI reduces startup costs, meaning less = more.Theory 2: AI increases competition, making capital more crucial for scaling.= Seed StrappingAsteroid Mining Spotlight on Karman Plus, autonomous asteroid mining. Government funding in space.

Upside #29 - Le Summit, Le Chat, Le $100bnLP Blind SpotsLP in Asia with 3000 managers but only 3 in Europe—why?European VC viewed as a "blind spot" by many investors in Asia and the US.The need for European investors to bridge the perception gap.Deep Dive: The France AI SummitFocus on "Inclusive and Sustainable AI."100 countries in attendance, 61 signed the agreement—but UK and US did not.Discussion around ethics, accessibility, and the role of global AI governance.JD Vance’s speech highlighted US dominance and reluctance to align with EU directives.Debate: Was it the right call for the UK not to sign?EU’s €50B AI InvestmentUS announced $500B AI initiative; France followed with €109B.Comparison between Macron's AI plan, UK AI strategy, and Bidenomics.The importance of aligning private investment with government funding.Mistral’s ‘Le Chat’ AI ModelFrench AI company Mistral launched "Le Chat."Designed for speed but criticised for lacking depth and innovation.Open-source AI as Europe's potential advantage in the global AI race.AI CornerGPT-4.5 expected within weeks, the last non-chain-of-thought model.Grok 3 by XAI (Elon Musk) in development, set to challenge OpenAI’s dominance.Open-source AI progress making Europe a contender in the AI space.Interest Rates and UK Economic OutlookBank of England’s 25 bps rate cut—will it impact startups and investments?UK growth forecast halved to 0.75%.Concerns about stagflation, job losses, and productivity decline.Can AI be the key to unlocking efficiency in government services?AstraZeneca Vaccine Plant WithdrawalUK government cut state aid from £90M to £40M.AstraZeneca chose to invest elsewhere. Ble.A significant loss for Liverpool’s economy and UK biotech sector.Deal of the WeekTines (Ireland) raises $125M Series C, becoming a unicorn.Final ThoughtsOptimism about UK and European innovation despite economic hurdles.Encouraging bold policy decisions and strategic AI investments."Let's start doing."

In this episode, Dan, Lomax, and Mads dive into a packed agenda spanning tech earnings, European venture dynamics, government policies on AI and nuclear energy, and the debate over whether Europe—or the UK—could (or should) define its own version of the “American Dream.” Mads shares insights from his recent visit to Number 10 Downing Street to discuss the UK’s AI strategy, and Lomax highlights a series of notable European health tech deals.Welcome & Introductions• Dan kicks things off with a check-in on what’s happening in Lisbon, London, and beyond.• Lomax is monitoring global political drama (particularly in the U.S. and Europe).• Mads teases big announcements out of Number 10 regarding AI.Tech Earnings & Market Sentiment• Palantir reports bullish earnings; stock jumps ~24%.• Google’s cloud growth disappoints vs. analyst expectations; capital expenditures on the rise.• AMD and ARM under the spotlight—concerns over data centre growth.• ASML and Spotify highlight strong European tech performance.• January inflows into European stocks reach 25-year highs, briefly outpacing US markets.Cherry Ventures’ $500M Raise & Europe’s VC Landscape• Cherry Ventures closes its fifth fund, demonstrating how larger European VCs continue to mature.• Discussion on the overall trend: Big name funds attracting more capital, mirroring the U.S. “flight to quality.”German Elections & Political Shifts• The rise of the far-right AFD (Alternative für Deutschland) in the polls.• Potential implications for tech talent and immigration policy.• Broader context of populism in Europe and the struggle for pro-tech growth policies.The UK’s Nuclear Push• New moves to accelerate nuclear power plant approvals and the pivot to small, safe reactors.• How nuclear energy ties in with AI (data centres needing massive, stable power sources).• Debate over planning red tape vs. the urgency to bolster UK’s energy security and cut costs.The Number 10 AI Plan (Mads’ Visit)• Mads shares first-hand insights from meeting with UK government officials, including Keir Starmer.• Adoption of Matt Clifford’s 50-point AI plan and the promise of government as an “early customer.”• The challenge of scaling AI talent in a post-Brexit environment—and how to attract global talent.• Pension reform, government procurement, and the push for overall efficiency gains in the public sector.Is Europe Just an “Incubator” for the US?• Analysis of new research suggesting fewer startups relocate to the US than expected—but those that do raise 3x more capital.• Role of large European funds in combating early acquisitions and supporting founders to scale.• The example of ARM and its journey from European tech champion to global powerhouse.Trump’s Proposed US Sovereign Wealth Fund• Contrasting with Norway’s $1.5 trillion Government Pension Fund Global and Singapore’s GIC.• Questions around how a country with high debt (like the US) might run a sovereign wealth fund.• Potential lessons for European nations and the risks of politicising large capital pools.Deals of the Week• Health Tech Highlights:◦UK cancer detection startup See the Signs secures seed funding led by Khosla.◦ IVF funding platform Gaia raises a strong Series A.◦ Spanish AI imaging startup Cuban nabs a $50M Series A.• ARM & Ampere rumour: possible acquisition to expand ARM from IP licensing into actual chip manufacturing for data centres.Looking Ahead• Mads: Speaking at local schools on entrepreneurship, then multiple board meetings.• Lomax: Closing an investment in a space-tech company and working on a significant Series B funding.• Dan: Potential trip to Finland to explore a diagnostics startup focusing

Hosts: Dan, Andrew, Mads and LomaxThe Future of Defence in Europe - Show tRump the monnaayyyy- NATO defence spending push: Lithuania and Estonia commit to Trump's 5% target.- Europe's over-reliance on US defence infrastructure – time to build independent capabilities?- Startups and venture capital in defence: The next big opportunity?- Should Europe follow the US model of defence tech innovation? Can it go private?UK's Wonky Economic Growth Strategy- Rachel Reeves' "turbocharging growth" plan – is it more rhetoric than reality?- The role of the National Wealth Fund and the Office for Investment in boosting UK infrastructure.- The Heathrow third runway debate – long overdue, too far away, or plane misguided?- Unlocking UK pension funds for investment – real impact or just political showmanship?- How the UK can actually foster innovation and become the "next Silicon Valley." Oxford <> Cambridge Arc.Europe's AI and Investment Updates - Is Quantum back?!- OpenAI launching ChatGPT Gov: What does this mean for government AI adoption?- Apple’s position in the AI race – overlooked but strategically poised?- 11Labs raising $250M at a $3B valuation – Europe's AI voice technology rising.- Quantum computing’s resurgence: Alice & Bob, Quantinuum IPOs, and Europe's role.The DeepSeek Disruption - The numbers just don't add up- China's DeepSeek AI model making waves – is it a game-changer or just a media frenzy?- Claims of IP infringement vs. technological innovation – how much did they really borrow? The 'distillation' woogabooga- The efficiency leap: What cost $5 billion for OpenAI cost DeepSeek only $5 million?- The geopolitical impact: US-China tech war escalates, export restrictions, and AI as a national security concern.- What this means for European AI: Why wasn’t a European company leading the charge?The Rise of Political Discontent - Young'uns want us to be like China- 52% of Gen Z in the UK favouring dictatorship – a reflection of frustration or a dangerous trend?- Elon Musk’s AFD rally appearance in Germany – should we be worried?- The broader implications of political shifts on global investment and innovation.The team close reflecting on the balance of optimism vs. realism in European tech and investment. What they're up to this week and to be more.... Merrricaan!Thanks for tuning in! See you next week.06:00 The Role of Startups in Defence12:00 Pension Reforms and Investment Opportunities18:10 AI and Innovation in Government Spending38:24 The Urgency of AI Implementation46:12 The Implications of DeepSeek's Innovations57:10 Funding Trends in European AI Startups01:02:32 Gen Z's Political Sentiments and Future Outlook