Upside

🎧 Upside Ep #60 — “White Gold, Red Ink, and Reinventing VC”Hosts: Dan · Lomax · Andrew Recorded: Oct 2, 202501:00 – Quick News Highlights🇺🇸 US Shutdown — $15B GDP loss per week; political theatre more than fiscal risk.🇬🇧 Labour Party Conference — Starmer’s 13% approval, OBR to cut productivity; £10B headroom could flip to £20B deficit.💰 UK recovers $5B from Bitcoin fraud (FT)🔐 UK demands Apple backdoor again (TechCrunch)🤖 OpenAI $500B valuation (FT)🌉 EF exits Europe, launches “Bridge” Bay Area program (Sifted)🎬 Sora 2 video model - Sam A videos. Bwahaha 10:00 – EF’s US PivotEF closes Paris/Berlin, focusing on US founder “sheep-dipping.” Validation of EU founder quality but reminder: growth capital + urgency still American advantages.17:00 – Germany’s Lithium Discovery43M tons found in northern Germany — ~$600B in-ground value.DLE extraction (from brines) cleaner but unproven.Europe could cover 50 years of demand, yet permitting, costs, and NIMBY issues loom.Real win may lie in refining and gigafactory build-out, not mining alone.22:00 – London’s IPO DeclineLondon slips to #23 globally; IPO volume down 69% ($248M → $42M).Causes: low equity appetite, no tech weighting, over-regulation, pension conservatism.Fixes: incentivise pension investment, cut stamp duty, attract tech listings.27:00 – Should Governments Bail Out?UK guarantees £1.5B loan to JLR (post-cyberattack).Critics: moral hazard, no cyber-insurance, political pork-barrelling.Compare: Germany’s bold €500B public investment plan.Consensus: backstop only if government gets warrants + drives reform.41:00 – Reinventing VCUS mega-firms become RIAs, investing across public/private assets.New players: Evantic ($400M), Striker (10 LPs × 10 startups).AI models now beat humans at picking founders.Europe lags — still relationship-driven, early-stage remains “artisanal.”51:00 – Deals of the Week💥 Concept Ventures – £88M pre-seed fund (UK)🧪 Periodic Labs – $300M seed (ex-DeepMind/OpenAI)💼 Creator Fund – €80M pan-EU deep tech⚖️ Legora – raising $100M @ $1.7B🧠 Black Forest Labs – $4B valuation talks🦄 Cleo, Tide hit unicorn status57:00 – Defence & TechHighlights from London Resilience Conference: surge in EU defence startups, faster US build cycles, procurement reform lagging.MI6’s real “Q” reveals gadget: surveillance dog poo.59:00 – WrapEurope’s week in contrast: industrial ambition (Germany), structural pain (London), creative churn (VC & AI). Momentum builds — even amid the mess.

Yes we're European VCs so YES we're talking AI and defence! But there's still more of the pie to eat, so dig in.02:00 🇬🇧 UK in the doldrums* Little to no growth (1.5% vs US 3.8%).* Inflation stubborn at 3.8%.* 130k jobs lost since last budget.* Housing, Heathrow, HS2 — stalled megaprojects.06:30 📉 Structural weaknesses* UK pensions: only 4.4% in UK equities (vs 50% in past).* FTSE = $2.8T — smaller than Apple alone.* R&D spend at 1.7% vs US 3.5%.10:00 🚀 Reasons for optimism* Revolut hits 70m users, Canary Wharf HQ, £3bn UK investment.* UK AI leaders: Wayve, ElevenLabs, Synthesia, Cleo.* Nvidia building Europe’s biggest GPU cluster (120k Blackwells by 2026).13:00 🤝 Trump visit & £150bn US deal* Breakdown: £90bn Blackstone, £22bn Microsoft, £5bn Google, £1.5bn Palantir, £3.9bn Prologis.* UK pledges $80bn procurement from US tech/defence.* Historic scale, but execution challenges loom.18:30 📝 What the UK must do — 5-Point Plan1. Regulatory bonfire2. Pension capital unlocked3. Energy independence4. Planning revolution5. Startup Central (“29th Regime”)24:00 🌍 H1B debacle* US slaps $100k fee on new H1Bs (was $1.5k).* Big Tech shrugs, startups squeezed.* Europe’s opening: 24h visas for £100k+ roles could flip the script.28:30 🤖 AI Corner* Nvidia invests $100B into OpenAI — vertical integration play.* Cohere hits $7B with AMD deal; Modular raises $250M to break CUDA lock-in.* DeepSeek achieves GPT-4-level performance at 1/20th cost.* JLR cyberattack halts production for 3+ weeks; systemic risk exposed.37:00 🛡️ Defence Corner* Russian drones breach NATO airspace — first NATO shots fired.* Copenhagen airport shut, Polish & Baltic incursions.* NATO launches Eastern Sentry, Europe boosts spend to 3.5% GDP.* Defence unicorns rising: Helsing ($12B), Quantum Systems, Tekever.45:00 💸 Deals of the Week* nScale: £1.1B raise at £3B — Europe’s newest AI datacenter unicorn.* Ōura: $875M raise at $11B valuation.* Aerospacelab: $110M for satellite constellation.On today: Dan, Mads, Lomax, Andrew.

This week we chat with Mike the ex editor of TechCrunch, getting his take on the past, present and future of all things Euro-startup. Mads shares his thoughts on the All In Summit. We chat about defence strategies, pension funds and Euro cash injections, Germany moving and shaking their startup scene, Draghi's anniversary, the EU Inc guys / 28th regime - and what this all means for us in venture, for founders, investors and startups.00:35 – TechCrunch Europe → resetRedundancies post-Yahoo sale; Mike takes a breather, experiments with social video.01:29 – Mike’s showreel’95 journo → FTGuardian → joins TechCrunch Europe in ’07; spins up The Europas and Techfugees.03:51 – New media > old blogsCreators (MrBeast, Bari Weiss, Cleo Abram) now disrupt the disruptors; social is the front door for news; AI reshapes formats.06:02 – Europe’s vibe, not the Valley’sFragmentation persists, but Slush VivaTech Web Summit LTW etc. anchor a distinct EU flavour.09:24 – Culture shift neededBe candid *and* boosterish; being bigger and bolder.12:17 – All-In Summit debriefRobotics “hand problem” (26 actuators arm; supply chain missing), AGI ≈ 5–10y, China’s practical AI push, enterprise AI moats (boring infra), Europe’s latent talent vs weak commercialisation; “physical AI” window is NOW.16:27 – EU Inc & Draghi (1-year on)EU-wide startup entity push; Draghi’s 383 recs: only ~40 actioned; public consultation live at eu-inc.org.18:29 – What to fix in EuropePlanning gridlock (HS2 file bloat; energy permits ~44 months) + misallocated pensions (€16T, >55% in bonds ~3%). Shift saver incentives and trustee “prudence” toward productive assets to unlock ~€970B yr.20:56 – Implementation dragOnly a sliver of Draghi implemented; call for a “crack” execution unit; R&D under-invested vs US. EU grants take ~240 days from green light to cash.24:02 – UK pensions: rhetoric vs mechanicsFee caps & plumbing still block meaningful allocations despite political cheerleading.28:28 – Germany’s draft startup tax reformFounder and VC-friendly fixes from German Govt (e.g., ESOP dry income relief, longer deferral, broader eligibility).35:39 – Deal of the week: ASML → Mistral (€2B)Mistral >€100m ARR; ASML’s strategic seat to frontier models; comps far below US hypers; BNP with 800+ use cases. Raises EU late-stage capital question; balance sheets stepping in.48:48 – Defence - UK Strategy, Russian Drones and NATO/European ReactionPoland shoots down Russian drones; UK to 2.5% GDP defence by 2027 (+ regional £250m hubs). Good signal, too small; procurement speed is the moat; Eastern front buying *now*.

Let markets drive early-stage VC; fix EU growth/IPO capital via pension reform. Win AI as power users, not model builders. Geopolitics demands EU/ally coordination. Quantum’s having a moment.This week it's Mads, Lomax and Dan. All European early stage VCs looking behind the headlines to explore what's affecting venture, founders and investors.00:00–03:07 — “28th regime” for EU VC?Dan proposes a structured EU venture vehicle03:07–07:46 — Let chaos reign- Bottom-up or top-down? governments already big LPs; VC must deliver performance to unlock pensions.07:46–13:11 — Macro & pensions.Dealroom report: EU VC-backed value ≈ $3.5T; domestic pensions rising but tiny vs need; UK fiscal context not worst in G7.13:24–16:46 — Macro vs micro - Do we care?Great teams still raise; next KPI is a Europe-born “Mag-7-scale” company.16:46–19:49 — Why UK tax payers support MAG7.Rules favour bonds (low fees/vol); reform prudential & tax to channel savings into EU productive assets.19:49–21:25 — Can EU scale.Capital aggregation at multi-billion rounds remains the choke point.22:41–25:48 — Google antitrust.No breakup; must share index/click data on commercial, non-discriminatory terms—light remedy.26:18–30:16 — Isambard & AI adoption.UK supercomputer is symbolic; real edge is becoming the best AI adopter (health/life-sciences, public services).32:25–39:47 — Power of Xi.China’s manufacturing lead; EU needs re-armament, industrial base, and alliances (US + Asian democracies).40:24–41:54 — Deals of the week (Quantum).Quantinuum raises $600m (≈$10B val); IQM hits unicorn; prior Oxford Ionics → IonQ deal noted.

This week on Upside – It's a digital sovereignty deeper dive - what does it really mean, Nvidia is up but kinda not, Apple vs CMA - stormy teacup, and Governments Buying AI - which is a a great thing! Yes it is.With Mads, Lomax, Andreas and Dan.00:52 – Why Nvidia is “the poster child”Picks & shovels of AI; outsized share of data-centre capex; sheer scale of valuation and index weight.01:49 – Numbers that bend the mind$100B rev $25B net income quarter; growth decelerating (YoY strong, QoQ data-centre +5%) and mostly “priced in.”04:33 – Europe’s chip toolkitASML, STMicro, Infineon, ARM as the homegrown counterweight—and the media’s US-centric bias.06:07 – Apple vs UK CMAInteroperability, payments, “Apple tax,” and the tension between competition policy and platform control.08:05 – When regulation helpsOpen banking as a rare win; risk of “fighting the last war” on phones while AI becomes the real battleground.16:36 – Antitrust lessons for AINeed smarter, transatlantic, pro-innovation guardrails before AI market power locks in.18:55 – Creative destruction vs. copsMarkets toppled IBM/Microsoft; you can’t regulate your way to greatness—create conditions to compete.21:05 – Sovereignty kicks off: US buys 10% of IntelEquity via CHIPS grants; debate on retroactive terms, national champions, and when government should own.28:26 – Europe’s long tradition of state helpAirbus, satellites, energy—how “strategic” differs from picking winners.30:42 – What should be sovereignCompute/chips, energy, critical minerals, food/health inputs, and space—areas where hands-off fails.37:12 – UK gov is buying AI (a lot)Spend surges; Microsoft & Palantir dominate; case for being a “power user” while seeding EU/UK alternatives.43:54 – Can startups sell to government?Procurement is the moat for incumbents; call for sandboxes, fast paths, and small experiments.50:01 – What is digital sovereignty (really)?Acting without others’ permission; Europe’s dilemma: US defence, China manufacturing, and now US AI.52:07 – China’s playbookBack sectors, unleash brutal competition (EVs), let winners emerge—then scale.57:33 – Follow the moneyEU pension funds underweight EU VC; stop funding US dominance if we want sovereignty.Fast takeaways* Nvidia remains the bellwether, but the growth rate is normalising at hyperscale.* Apple vs CMA = overdue competition questions, but don’t fight 2010’s war in 2025 - aim rules at AI.* Sovereignty ≠ autarky: diversify dependencies, go big on adoption, and grow local apps/infra.* Procurement reform (sandboxes, smaller tickets) is the cheapest way to catalyse EU/UK AI champions

For the real news behind the headlines affecting European venture.Hosts: Dan Bowyer & Mads Jensen, with Joe Knowles from Smedvig Ventures(01:15) US vs. Europe in Wealth CreationUS dominates wealth & compounders due to internet hyperscalers.Europe: strong talent, growing startups, but weaker late-stage funding & exits.Pension fund restrictions and lack of capital allocation are core structural issues.(12:10) AI Race & Europe’s ChallengeUS likely to win again; Europe risks falling far behind.Strategic gaps: compute, energy costs, slow policy response.(13:05) M&A BoomH1 2025: ~$100bn in deals (+155% YoY), led by Google–Wiz ($32bn).Hot areas: AI code gen, security, vertical apps.Europe well-placed in application-layer M&A and AI-enabled services.Exits recycle capital → critical for VC ecosystem health.(21:21) Defence Tech AwakeningPorsche & Deutsche Telekom launching €500m fund; Lakestar raising €250m.Cultural shift in Germany: mainstream corporates backing defence/dual-use.Small monetarily, but signals a tide change.(31:21) Energy & BatteriesBreakthroughs: lithium recycling (97%), sodium-ion at $10/kWh, EU gigafactories planned.Europe must cut energy costs (4x US levels).Nuclear, deregulation, and better storage key for AI competitiveness.(35:06) AI CornerGPT-5: Faster, unified model, free to ChatGPT’s 700M users. Incremental but strong in coding.Perplexity vs. Chrome: DOJ may force Chrome divestiture; Perplexity rumored buyer (PR stunt?).Economics: OpenAI at $500bn valuation despite $5bn losses; Anthropic ARR exploding ($1bn → $5bn in 7 months).(42:15) Chips & GeopoliticsUS restricting Nvidia chips to China; Trump proposes tariffed exports.Europe’s Chips Act stuck with outdated tech; Intel project canceled.Urgent need for “Chips 2.0” and partnerships with TSMC/Nvidia/ASML.(48:03) Closing NotesItaly’s record H1 (€655m raised).Europe’s momentum building across defence, energy, and venture.

Upside #52 The weekly podcast for all things European venture, startups and investing. Each week we look behind the headlines for the real news affecting our ecosystem.VC Hosts: Mads, Andrew & DanThis week: Seed-to-Series A: harder or hype?Germany’s €100B DeutschlandfondsUK interest rate cutOECD’s corporate investment warningEU Chips Act 2.0 - 1.0 #failAI Corner – GPT-5, Anthropic’s advances, open-source warsDeal of the Week00:50 – Series A: Out of Reach? Really?US: Avg. 2.5 years to Series A, down to 11% graduation rate. UK/Europe: ~18 months, higher graduation rates, but smaller rounds. AI reshaping funding pace; bridge rounds at record levels. Overhang from 2021–22 funding glut being flushed out. Carta data shows improving graduation rates. Labels distort. Under-capitalisation as a European challenge.07:59 – Germany’s €100B Deutschlandfonds - Be More GermanFund to secure strategic sectors: defence, energy, raw materials. Leverages €10B public → target €100B private. Germany’s growth stagnation since 2019 needs reversal.18:35 – UK Autumn Budget Of MiseryLikely tax rises despite Labour’s pledges - risk making UK unattractive for VC & startups. Millionaire exodus, low PE carried interest returns signal concern.22:09 – UK Interest Rate Cut Says What?BOE cuts from 4.25% → 4% despite sticky inflation (3.6% → rising to 4%). Growth fears outweigh inflation fight – signals economic fragility. Will lower rates make VC relatively more attractive?23:29 – OECD: Weak Corporate Investment Is Bad NewsInvestment still 20% below pre-GFC trends; physical asset investment lagging. Productivity stagnation since 2008. Corporates prioritising dividends over long-term growth.40:11 – EU Chips Act 2.0 - Can We, Should We?Act 1 mega fail: Missed 20% market share goal; may hit only 5% by 2030. Intel exit, focus on low-end chips, global oversupply, poor US trade terms. Need to attract TSMC/Samsung for cutting-edge fabs. Europe must avoid “please everyone” industrial policy. Chip demand will keep growing; still time to compete.50:35 – Mega AI CornerGPT-5 “soon” Anthropic’s Claude 4.1 leading in reliability. OpenAI launches first open-source model since GPT-2. Mega-rounds: OpenAI $8B, Mistral $10B, Perplexity raising. Open vs. closed source. IP & “decomposition” debate:1:04:04 – Deal of the WeekClay – $100M at $3.1B; widely used contact intelligence tool.n8n – Valuation surges past €2B amid investor frenzy.Voltrac – Spanish autonomous electric tractor; 70% fewer parts, strong ROI.AI in politics: Sweden’s PM admits using ChatGPT for second opinions.Recorded 7 August 2025

Upside is for anyone interested in the European tech and startup ecosystem. We discuss the real stories that live behind the headlines.Recorded: Friday August 1st 2025Hosts: VCs - Mads, Lomax, and Dan00:50 – Big Tech Earnings BlowoutsMassive Meta and MS uplift. Massive efficiency gains via AI, despite headcount cuts. Microsoft: $13B AI cloud run rate. Growth driven by CoPilot and Azure.11:20 – Fundamentally Flawed Figures Inflation sticky around 2.9%. Rates stuck. Why equity markets remain bullish despite macro pressure. AI productivity gains seen as the buffer against high rates. Not the dot-com? 17:42 – Europe’s No Mag7The sobering gap, but optimism for emerging EU-based players. Nurture “green shoots” of European innovation.18:34 – Markets - Figma IPO – Is SaaS Back?Massive Day 1 pop: from \$20B to \$65B market cap. 91% gross margin, 132% NDR, strong enterprise traction. Optimism for SaaS exits and public market appetite.26:27 – Markets - Anthropic vs. Figma – AI Valuations in ContextAnthropic at \$170B valuation (\~30x revenue).Contrasted with Figma’s 60x multiple. SaaS more stable; AI still in sandbox.27:23 – Markets - Return of Risk Appetite: Firefly & Space IPOsFirefly targeting a $5B IPO despite revenue.29:26 – Liberation Day 2.0 – Trump’s Trade Deal with the EU**EU commits to $750B in US energy, $600B in US manufacturing investment. Concern over EU sovereignty and realism of enforcement.37:54 – Implications for European StartupsSoftware firms largely unaffected. Hardware or hybrid firms need to rethink supply chains.Consumer hardware most at risk from tariffs.40:17 – Geopolitical Signalling and the Long GameEU’s long-term strategy will shift towards self-reliance and defence. Upside for local tech ecosystems.41:23 – AI Corner – Latest Deals & Developments.Anthropic: From $1B to $6B ARR in months. $5B raise underway.Alibaba: Launches Claude Code competitor for 1/60th the cost.Cognigy (Germany): Acquired for $1B by NICE (CX automation).n8n: Open source automation tool now valued at \$1.5B.OpenAI Study Mode: Personalised learning agents; education disruption incoming.47:26 – Is Germany Becoming Europe’s AI Leader?Germany, France, and the UK all seeing strong AI momentum. European AI isn’t centralised – strength lies in distributed hubs.50:01 – Why Billion-Dollar Exits Are No Longer a Big DealCognigy, Oxford Ionics → seen as “modest” compared to US mega-deals. Yet: exits like these power Europe’s VC ecosystem - billion-dollar exits still matter.51:00 – Project Europe – What Europe NeedsHarry Stebbings’ “Project Europe”: €200k per startup, under-25 founders.6 companies in batch one: drones, brain-computer interfaces, cybersecurity, robotics. Focused on deep tech and hard problems – not consumer fluff. A bet on Europe’s technical edge and early-stage ecosystem.56:30 – Challenges Ahead for Project EuropeAccelerators attract top-tier founders? Signalling risk? Success will require time, patient capital, and structural support.63:57 – Stopping the Brain DrainEU founders often register in the US, but real drain is sub-10%. IPO path must be restored in EU. Public markets offer cheaper capital vs. growth equity.65:30 – Deal(s) of the WeekCyberArk acquired by Palo Alto Networks for $25BProject Q (Germany) raises €7.5M for battlefield software. One to watch.

Upside - for the real stories behind the headlines affecting European Venture.In this week's episode:AI in Public Services - OpenAI and the UK govt sign dealThe US vs UK AI plans - how do they compare?Stablecoins - what are they really and why are they not in the UK?Deepmind wins the IMO maths competition - so what?Deal of the Week01:50 – AI in UK Government and Public ServicesUK government signs an MOU with OpenAI to explore AI in public services.Introduction of “Humphrey,” a ChatGPT-powered assistant for civil servants.03:21 – Will AI in Public Services Work?NHS could be a testbed for AI adoption, potentially with citizen opt-ins for faster treatments using AI technologies.05:26 – UK AI Plan and Public Sector ProductivityUK’s AI Opportunities Plan.Potential AI use cases: fraud prevention and efficiency in administrative tasks.08:24 – Challenges in Government AI Implementation09:27 – AI in NHS & HealthcareDebate on AI’s role in healthcare11:46 – UK Sovereignty & AI PartnershipsConcerns about reliance on US AI companies (OpenAI, Anthropic).13:03 – Is Reliance on US AI a Problem?Discussion on whether the UK should build its own foundational AI models.16:31 – National AI StrategiesDebate on the UK government’s responsibility to invest heavily in domestic AI.Comparison to the UK aerospace industry and state-backed R&D.19:26 – Comparing US and UK AI PlansOverview of both strategies:US: Innovation, leadership, and global dominance.UK: Sovereignty, public sector benefits, and homegrown champions.22:24 – Key Differences Between US and UK AI Approaches27:47 – What Should the UK Do Differently?Invest in national AI infrastructure. Mandate “buy UK first” for AI solutions.33:31 – AI in Large OrganizationsNorway’s sovereign wealth fund sees 20% efficiency gains using AI (Claude).36:01 – Transition to StablecoinsWhat they are and why they matter.41:02 – Dollar Dominance via StablecoinsStablecoins as a strategic tool to extend USD dominance.48:25 – Future of StablecoinsHow stablecoins will reshape DeFi, cross-border transactions, and payments.52:27 – AI Excels at MathematicsGoogle DeepMind and OpenAI achieve gold-level performance at the IMO (International Mathematical Olympiad). Significance: AI is moving from computation to creative problem-solving and advanced reasoning.55:47 – Implications of AI in Math & ScienceAI’s ability to solve complex math problems signals breakthroughs in R&D and engineering.58:14 – Philosophical Questions on AI ReasoningDebate on whether AI’s reasoning is “synthetic” or genuinely creative.AI’s utility matters more than its internal mechanics.59:33 – Deal of the WeekKeywords: AI, public services, OpenAI, UK government, healthcare, stablecoins, financial system, mathematics, funding, trade deals.

UPSIDE - For the week's *real news* behind the headlines affecting European venture.If curious about startups, investing, venture capital, innovation, AI, and all things going on in and around Europe - that's what this weekly roundup is all about.Hosts: Lomax from Outsized Ventures with Mads and myself from SuperSeed VCOn this week's show:04:02 – Shout out for EU Inc and The 28th RegimeLegal fragmentation in Europe increases friction and costs for pre-seed and seed funding. Comparison to US (Delaware + SAFE) vs. Europe’s notary-heavy systems.Potential savings of €350–500M annually by reducing legal overhead. ESOP (employee share options) complexity highlighted as a major barrier.09:55 – The United States of EuropeEU Inc. could be a “small first step” toward a unified European market post-Brexit. Lobbying from notaries and national interests creates significant resistance. Watered down is as good as not at all.15:14 – AI Corner: Huge AI news this weekMira Murati’s new startup raises $2B from A16Z, Nvidia, AMD. China’s Moonshot AI (Kimi 2) - 1T parameter open-source LLM outperforming Anthropic’s Opus 4 on coding tasks. Europe is trailing the US and China in foundational AI, but vertical AI and apps offer big opportunities.25:28 – The Application Layer BoomLovable Raised $200M at $1.8B valuation** with 75M ARR in 8 months.AI application companies like Tandem Health and Legora are scaling rapidly.31:51 – Apple Rumoured to Acquire Mistral?$15B acquisition? Would be the largest European AI exit, but raises sovereignty concerns in France.36:12 – UK Government ReformsRachel Reeves’ speeches: Streamlined reporting, pushing pension funds into riskier assets, and supporting LSE listings - symbolic or game-changing?42:21 – Crypto Week in the USBitcoin hits $120K as three major US crypto acts debated: Clarity Act, Genius Act, Anti-CBDC Act. Europe already has MiCA regulations but lacks a cohesive narrative. But should we have our own Crypto week?48:19 – European VC at 10-Year Low2025 projections: $10B VC capital raised. Solutions: Unlock pension capital, simplify retail VC access, and recycle returns from big exits like Mistral.54:28 – Deal of the Week: NumanMen’s D2C health startup: Raised $57M (30M equity + 27M debt). Pivoted to GLP-1-based weight-loss products, doubling revenue to $90M in 2024.56:16 – Closing Thoughts.