Upside #37 – Q1 2025 in Review + Tariffs & European Venture + Heads Down & Build

🎙️ Featuring:
Dan (SuperSeed VC)
Lomax (Outsized)
Andrew (7%)

00:30 – Klarna’s IPO Pulled & BNPL Under Pressure
Lomax reflects on Klarna pulling its IPO, amid turbulent markets and declining peers like Affirm. Is the buy-now-pay-later model starting to creak under macro pressure?

02:15 – Wave AI x Nissan: A Mega Auto Deal from Cambridge
A highlight for the UK: Wave AI’s $1.2B-backed AV tech lands a landmark partnership with Nissan for post-2027 production.

03:30 – Shopify's CEO Goes AI-First
Dan and Andrew react to a leaked Shopify memo urging teams to prove a task can’t be done by AI before requesting headcount.

05:05 – AI Futures Project: Black Mirror Vibes
A fascinating, speculative look at global AI scenarios via ai-2027.com — think Asimov meets geopolitics.

06:45 – Tariff Talk: Trump, Trust & Europe’s Wake-Up Call
Dan shares his eight theories on Trump's new tariff push, what it means for global trust, and Europe’s potential silver linings — including brain drain reversals and safe haven appeal.

10:45 – What Founders Should (and Shouldn’t) Do
Lomax: “Head down and build” remains the advice — though hardware startups at Series A/B should evaluate manufacturing strategy. Dan and Andrew agree: short-term panic isn’t the play.

14:45 – Hardware & Biotech: Sector-Specific Risk
How US-origin requirements, reshoring costs, and future pharma tariffs could force hard decisions on supply chains and capex.

17:45 – Market Reactions, Investment Shifts & “VC Panic”
From "RIP Good Times"-style memos to portfolio rebalancing — VCs are reacting in varied (and sometimes dramatic) ways.

22:15 – Report Review: State of Venture (CB Insights Q1 2025)

• Global VC hit $121B — highest since Q2 2022
• AI dominated with $40B for OpenAI alone
• CVC activity dropped sharply, particularly in Europe & Asia
• UK VC funding hit a 5-year low; Nordics and France on the rise
• Fewer deals, bigger rounds, and a record 12 $1B+ M&A deals

27:15 – AI Bubble or Boom?
Dan & Lomax debate how long the mega-investments in gen AI can last. Andrew points to foundational tech (chips, infra, cyber) as the safer long-term bets.

32:30 – The Data Center Power Squeeze
Power scarcity is slowing new data center builds — particularly in Europe. Efficiency, not just scale, may be the next AI gold rush.

34:30 – Report Review: UK AI Sector (Tech Nation)

• 2,300 AI startups worth $230B
• $1B raised in Q1 2025
• 76% of CEOs report positive impact
• Growth capital & talent cited as top challenges
• Policy still biased toward risk-aversion, not growth

38:45 – “The UK Thinks Small”
Lomax reads Barney Hussey-Yeo’s powerful critique of UK scale-up culture — a call for bigger ambition, smarter regulation, and less fear.

41:45 – What Needs to Change?
Andrew: “We don’t need more government-run funds — we need to unwind bad policies.” Immigration, pensions, and tax reforms are the real levers for growth.

44:15 – Deals of the Week 🚀

• Polamist: European maritime defense tech
• Green Jets: $7M electric jet engine raise
• Jensen AI: Open-source distributed AI infra
• Isomorphic Labs: $600M mega-raise led by US capital

46:45 – Final Thoughts
Despite the gloom around tariffs, IPO slowdowns, and policy inertia, Q1 shows Europe's tech scene still has major moves to make — especially if founders stay focused and regulators get out of the way.