Upside #36 - Tariffs - Liberating Europe - Pension Cha-Ching - “Peace” Tech

The shifting sands of geopolitics, defence tech, and AI — and what it all means for European startups, investors, and the broader ecosystem. From Germany’s defence splurge to Trump’s tariff theatrics and the commoditisation of LLMs, this one spans continents and controversies.

🧵 Topics Covered

• Liberation Day (US):
  What does Trump’s tariff agenda mean for European startups? Is it just noise, or should we be worried about supply chain shock and retaliatory regulation?
• European Defence Tech Boom:
  Germany’s lifted debt ceiling, tanks from Volkswagen, and defence ETFs surging 70-170%. Is this the economic unlock Europe’s been waiting for? Will the flood of money fuel true innovation, or just line the pockets of the usual suspects?
• The Dual-Use Dilemma:
  AI startups becoming “peace tech” and the sudden defence pivot — are we heading for a repeat of the blockchain hype cycle? What does real opportunity look like in this space?
• The AI Opportunity – or Not?
  Inspired by Nicolas Colin’s Drift Signal piece, the gang debates: Can Europe play a Japan-in-the-‘80s role in the AI era by winning at the application layer? Or is that wishful thinking?
• Pension Power in VC:
  UK’s Mansion House Compact and the potential influx of pension capital into venture. Will it finally trickle down to true innovation?
• TikTok Shop & Bezos’ Moves:
  What’s Amazon doing cozying up to Trump? Is TikTok’s forced sale the ultimate VC party round?

📊 Data Points

• 0.007%: UK pension allocation to VC
• 5%: Targeted allocation by 2030 under the Mansion House Compact
• 25,000 parts: Average number in a modern car — a tariff tangle waiting to happen
• Up to 170%: Growth in defence ETF performance
• 400M: Capital raised by ISAR for its (exploding) rocket launch
• 30 AI avatars: H&M replaces human models in new campaign
• 50%+: US consumer share of GDP — explains the political calculus behind tariffs

📝 Show Notes Extras

• 📖 Recommended Read: Nicolas Colin's “Who Will Be the Japan of the AI Era?” on Drift Signal
• 📈 Theororm’s Report: Resilience sector is up 30% in Europe while overall VC is down 45%
• 🧠 Trivia: The UK launched a satellite into orbit before the EU ever did… back in 1971. RIP Black Arrow.

🎙️ Upside: The Real Stories Behind The Headlines Affecting European Venture

Hosts:

• Dan (SuperSeed VC)
• Lomax (Outsized)
• Andrew (7%)
   (Mads is away enjoying cherry blossoms in Japan 🌸)