God AI - A German Ecosystem Deepdive - Part Time VCs - Google Hot Or Not?

Upside #68 w/ Robin Haak (Robin Capital), Lomax (Outsized), Mads and Dan (SuperSeed).

Topics: Germany’s slowdown • Social media bans • UK budget • Solo GPs • N26 • Europe vs Big Tech • AI Corner

01:21 – Robin’s Background

100+ investments, 8 unicorns. Co-founded SmartRecruiters → sold to SAP ($100M ARR). Former GP at Revaya (€600M AUM). Now building a 50-year solo GP franchise.

03:58 – Social Media Ban for Under-16s

Mads: EU Parliament pushes advisory resolution; strong evidence social media harms teen mental health, especially girls.

06:39 – US Says “Go Easy on Big Tech”

Lomax: US Commerce voices warn EU that tech regulation ties into trade/tariff negotiations. Don’t conflate antitrust with child safety—two different battles.

10:00 – UK Budget

Improved EMI stock options - More flexible EIS / VCT rules. Nice to hear a Chancellor talk about startups & innovation.

12:17 – EU Space Surveillance

ESA launches its first military space programme (€1B). Far behind the US, but a step toward defence autonomy.

13:19 – N26 Troubles

Regulatory caps slowed growth for years, BaFin repeatedly intervened. Leadership now reshuffling. Big question: Would N26 be Revolut-sized if founded outside Germany?

18:49 – German Economy Reality Check

GDP still below 2019 levels. Insolvencies highest in a decade. Restaurants down 20–40%. Years of underinvestment in tech, infrastructure, energy. Early nuclear shutdown = higher energy costs, fallback to coal.

25:04 – Why No Nuclear Return?

Public wants it (~75%). Politics block it; ideology > pragmatism.

27:07 – German Decline Impact on Startups

ESOP improved (still heavy tax). Bureaucracy is brutal: notaries, translations, delays. Many founders incorporate Delaware C-Corp + German GmbH.

Solo GP / Part-Time VC Trend

34:21 – The Movement

US led the way: Elad Gil, Auren, Buckley.

Three types: Lifelong solo GPs. Solo-to-multi-GP founders. Part-time solo GPs (e.g., 11 Labs’ Carlos Reiner). It works at $15–30M scale; Fund II usually becomes full-time.

40:10 – OpenAI, Google & Anthropic

OpenAI may need $200B+ by 2030. Google’s Gemini 3 beating OpenAI on many benchmarks. Monetisation gap: only ~5% of ChatGPT users pay. Warren Buffett buying Google is a signal?

44:57 – The Scary Bit: God-AI

Robin cites Eric Schmidt: If an adversary builds god-AI first, “we might have to bomb it.”