Upside 10 Venture Predictions - The Picks & Nix For '26!
Guests: Dan Bowyer, Mads Jensen, Lomax Ward and Dan Gray
Part 1 — 2025 predictions: what hit, what missed?
02:59 — OpenAI “dethroned”: debate, but mostly “yes”
04:47 — China/Taiwan “decisive year”: mostly no
05:46 — Defence tech surge: yes
06:46 — Europe/UK tech sovereignty: yes-ish but hard to measure
07:25 — Space enabling tech keeps attracting capital: yes
07:30 — US recession H2 2025: nope
09:07 — Stock correction early 2025: correct-ish
09:45 — M&A rebounds: yes
10:24 — IPO window reopens: yes-ish
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Part 2 — 2026 predictions (with yardsticks)
11:29 — (1) Dan Gray: “European Re-industrialisation”
Big industrial families + family offices start allocating more directly into innovation (seen around Munich/TUM).
13:11 — (2) Dan Bowyer: “Apple wins personal AI”
Dan bets 2026 is Apple’s “Siri actually works” year—especially via on-device models + partnerships (Google mentioned).
16:35 — (3) Mads: “3 major tech IPOs”
From this list: SpaceX, Databricks, Canva, Anduril, Anthropic — pick 3/5.
Mads goes big on Anthropic growth + enterprise leadership.
Dan Gray adds: IPOs cluster; post-IPO M&A often spikes; real test is 6–9 months later.
19:08 — (4) Lomax: “Biotech comes back from the dead”
Biotech rally underway (XBI up hard off lows).
24:39 — (5) Dan Gray: “Politics kills the 28th regime”
He doubts a single EU incorporation regime survives politics, but suggests a workaround:
28:51 — (6) Mads: “Chinese open-source AI hits 60% of downloads”
Notes China open-source share ~44% by end of 2025 (per the conversation), and cites growing adoption of open-source models in startups.
30:11 — (7) Lomax: “Longevity clinics go from boutique → (somewhat) mainstream”
Thesis: preventative, subscription-style health scales (Neko, Function Health examples).
33:31 — (8) Mads: “EU expands tariffs on Chinese goods beyond EVs”
Europe stops pretending tariffs are morally evil, and starts protecting industrial base more aggressively (supply chain breadth and/or higher rates).
34:50 — (9) Mads: “No AGI in 2026”
AGI definition mess continues.
40:19 — (10) Lomax: “Cyber becomes a clear and present threat”
AI lowers cost of recon, phishing, persistence; cyber as statecraft sits below “war thresholds.”
43:14 — Bonus (Mads): Robotaxis
Waymo keeps lead in the West (incl. London expansion/testing), Tesla makes progress but stays behind.