NAB Morning Call

Monday 13th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Aussie dollar has broken free from the holding pattern that has kept it below 66 US cents all year. On today’s podcast Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill why now, for a risk-sensitive currency, when there is still so much global uncertainty. That uncertainty was reflected in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey on Friday, which showed US inflation expectations were rising. This week is a big one for central banks, with decisions being made in the US, UK, Canada and Japan. Two cuts and two on hold? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th September 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Maybe it’s not just the Fed that’s having its independence challenged. This week independent economist Paul Mortimer-Lee wonders whether the Bank of England is now more focused on preventing the economy from tanking that it is concerned about inflation. He provides a pessimistic outlook for the UK economy, which he says is suffering from successive high spending governments. He says it needs an IMF bailout – it doesn’t need the cash, but it needs a dose of the hard medicine that the IMF doles out. Assuming that doesn’t happen, then the Bank of England will follow in the footsteps of a less independent Fed, where rates are cut to boost growth, with less concern about the return of inflation. The upshot, he reckons, is much lower rates and inflation bouncing back. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS inflation numbers overnight weren’t too far from market expectations, but NAB’s Sally Auld points out that the core rate for August was close to a rounding error that could have been uncomfortable (0.4% rather than 0.3%). That print, combined with continued growing labour weakness in the weekly jobless claims, was enough to push bond yields down (US 10-year yields got down to 3.99%) and drive equities to new record highs. The ECB kept rates on hold, with no further cuts on the horizon, particularly as they are forecasting economic growth of just 1% next year. Speaking of slow growth, UK GDP is out later today. For one man’s take on what’s going wrong with Britain, listen to Paul Mortimer-Lee on the weekend edition out later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rodrigo Catril from NAB, an expert in market economics, shares insights on the recent shifts in wealth among the world's richest individuals and the impact of declining U.S. producer prices. He discusses how US tariffs are affecting international oil purchases and China's deflationary trends. Catril also navigates the complexities of monetary policies in a fluctuating economy, examining the strength of the Australian dollar against global currencies and forecasting its future amid rising inflation.

Wednesday 10th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAlthough we said yesterday that revisions to the BLS jobs data for the year to March are a piece of history, the size of the downward revision does flag the issue about just how accurate these numbers are. The revision basically wipes out half the jobs growth for the year to March, following a big revision down the year before. The markets didn’t respond too much to the data, but it provided an opportunity for Scott Bessent to call for faster cuts and question the effectiveness of the Fed. Markets were also constrained in their reaction to the Israeli bombing of a building in central Doha - oil rose a little and gold reached another new high. Today, the inflation numbers start to flow through, with CPI and PPI for China and PPI for US (CPI tomorrow). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this discussion, Taylor Nugent, a market economist and strategist at NAB, dives into the potential downward revisions of U.S. jobs data and their minimal expected impact on markets and the Fed. He also reveals insights on the political turmoil in France and the recent resignation of Japan’s PM Ishiba, linking these events to positive stock market reactions. The conversation highlights the nuances of economic confidence and employment trends while addressing the effects of international trade dynamics, particularly concerning China and Germany.

Monday 8th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe building evidence in jobs-related data pointed to a disappointing non-farm payrolls number for the US, and on Friday we got it, with a small increase in jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. NAB’s Skye Masters says it pushed bond yields lower, but highlights that although unemployment is rising, the rate is edging up very slowly. Still, if we see inflation rising this week against a falling jobs market that’ll sound warning bells. Canada’s unemployment numbers on Friday were worse than the US, with job numbers falling. There’s plenty of politics at play, with Japan and France both looking for new Prime Ministers this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th September 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The US recently passed The Genius Act, which entrenches the role of Stablecoin in the US economy. Scott Bessent thinks the requirement for Stablecoin operators to back their issuance 1:1 with US currency safe assets, like government securities, will increase demand for US Treasuries and lower borrowing costs. Is it a genius plan or just wishful thinking? Phil puts that question to Simon French, managing director of Panmure Liberum, the UK’s largest independent investment bank. In a recent column in The Times Simon argued that the UK and other governments and central banks need to embrace the technology or risk even more finance concentrated on US currency and assets. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt would be a big surprise if we saw strong growth in the US non-farm payrolls numbers out tonight (Australia time). As NAB’s Ken Crompton describes, the Challenger Jobs Survey showed sharp rise sin layoffs, the weekly jobless claims continue to rise, and the number of new jobs halved in the latest ADP report. He tells Phul that the report is unlikely to have any impact on the chance of a cut in the September Fed meeting, but it could influence the number of cuts that follow beyond that this year. Whilst the jobs market appears soft, the ISM Services report showed strength, and equity markets are behaving as though everything is just fine. The S&P hit another new high at the US close, for example. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this discussion, Ray Attrill, NAB’s market economist and strategist, dives into the latest U.S. job openings data, revealing a drop to 7.2 million. He explains how this decline signals a weakening job market, influencing tech stock surges and lower bond yields. Ray also touches on the surprising growth of Australia’s GDP, driven by household consumption, alongside the contrasting dynamics in job sectors and the implications for interest rate forecasts. Stay tuned for insights on economic trends and future market expectations!