NAB Morning Call

Ray Attrill, NAB's market economist and strategist, shares his expertise on recent market happenings. He discusses President Trump's unexpected 50% tariff on Brazilian imports and how markets surprisingly remained unfazed, even as US equities rose. Attrill delves into the implications for global trade and inflation, noting how exporters are adapting to tariff challenges. The conversation also touches on US job data, the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, and the Australian dollar's rise amidst shifting economic winds.

Thursday 10th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThis has to be one of the quietest sessions in quite a while. President Trump did send out more tariff letters, but avoiding alarming demands and aimed at relatively minor trading partners. There was a stronger than expected response to a 10-year Treasury auction which, NAB’s Taylor Nugent says did move yields lower, although those moves had started ahead of the auction. The Fed minutes this morning show how divided the US central bank is on how quickly to move rates - or whether to move at all this year -and the impact of tariffs on the economy. There’s also discussion about the RBNZ yesterday, China’s inflation data and what to look out for today. Spoiler alert: not much! .  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 9th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump has made more proclamations, including a 50 percent tariff on copper imports. A deal is supposedly progressing with the EU, which could see trade in aircraft and parts exempt and a reduction for some car manufacturers. If the deal falls through there’s a threat that Europe’s 20% base tariff will rise to 50%. Markets have responded cautiously, perhaps too cautiously suggests NAB’s Skye Masters, who says it’ll also be interesting to see how a 10-year Treasury auction is received tonight. Phil also asks her about why the RBA decision yesterday was such a surprise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

New tariffs target Japan, South Korea, and South Africa, igniting discussions about their effect on international trade and market responses. Mild reactions in US equities raise questions about imminent economic shifts. The impact of the Federal Reserve's policies is scrutinized, especially regarding rising debt costs and GDP growth. Meanwhile, surprising industrial growth in Germany and trade talks between the EU and US weave into the global economic narrative. Business confidence insights ahead of the RBA meeting reveal the balancing act of inflation and rate expectations.

Ray Attrill, NAB's market strategist, dives into the whirlwind of market volatility sparked by new US tariffs. He discusses the unfolding uncertainty as negotiations commence with 18 nations and anticipates a turbulent week in financial markets. Attrill also examines OPEC+'s decision to boost oil production, hinting at a shift in pricing strategies. The conversation touches on Australian consumer spending trends and the looming rate decisions from the RBA and RBNZ, all while contemplating the broader implications for global economic stability.

Join Dr. Debra Leiter, an Associate Professor of Political Science & Philosophy at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, as she dives into the implications of President Trump's approval ratings on the upcoming midterms. She discusses the 'iron law of mid-term loss' and how current voter sentiments indicate a potential Republican victory. Leiter also questions what happens next for the presidency and the future of U.S. politics—will it shift back to the center or lean further left? Tune in for critical insights on the political landscape!

Friday 4th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets responded to what seemed like a strong set of payrolls numbers in the US, although the rate of new private jobs fell. Still, the unemployment rate also nudged lower. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what this means for market pricing for Fed cuts this year. The rest of the day’s data from the US were also largely positive, including the ISM Services index, the weekly jobless claims and durable goods orders.  Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill passed the House, meeting the deadline and adding to the positive vibes at the end of a shortened week. Today, Australia’s Household Spending Indicator is released. It’ll be interested to compare its figures with the weakness shown in the Retail Spending data published earlier in the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 3rd July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe S&P hit a new high, helped by a post from President Trump saying he has tied up a trade deal with Vietnam. The bad news is that the deal still hits them with tariffs of between 20 and 40%, whilst accepting US goods tariff-free. And the President says a deal with Japan is looking unlikely, but that could be simple ‘Art of the Deal’ tactics. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the market reaction to the watered-down UK’s Welfare Reform Bill that could add significantly to the UK deficit and drove bond yields much higher. The US Big Beautiful Bill, meanwhile, is struggling to get through the House of Reps. All eyes are now on jobs, with non-farm payrolls tonight, along with the weekly jobless claims. Markets reacted briefly to a big downside surprise in the ADP jobs numbers, but they are notoriously unreliable. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 2nd July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump's big, beautiful bill has passed through the Senate with the narrowest of margins and now goes back to the House with a chance that it will get approval by the 4th of July. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the passage of the bill could be partially responsible for the US dollar reaching a multi-year low today given the deficit implications that the bill provides. Rodrigo also discusses with Phil the latest US manufacturing ISM, what's being said at Sintra, New Zealand's latest business opinion survey and looks ahead to today's Australian retail sales numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 1st July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCanada has caved (the White House’s choice of words) over their digital services tax, so trade talks can resume with the US. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what this means for other countries with the same tax - many countries in Europe, the UK and, yes, Australia too. President Trump has said he sees no reason to extend the July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs, and those countries that have not negotiated in good faith will have their rates set by him next week.Scott Bessent suggested the government had no need to ramp up long term bond sales, even if the Big Beautiful Bill is likely to result in greater bond issuance. European CPI, the Caixin numbers from China and JOLTs for the US will be a focus today, along with a couple of high-powered panels at Sintra. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.