NAB Morning Call Will US jobs numbers be revised down today?
Sep 8, 2025
In this discussion, Taylor Nugent, a market economist and strategist at NAB, dives into the potential downward revisions of U.S. jobs data and their minimal expected impact on markets and the Fed. He also reveals insights on the political turmoil in France and the recent resignation of Japan’s PM Ishiba, linking these events to positive stock market reactions. The conversation highlights the nuances of economic confidence and employment trends while addressing the effects of international trade dynamics, particularly concerning China and Germany.
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Payroll Revision Is Historical, Not Immediate
- The benchmarking revision for US payrolls is historical and covers the year to March 2025.
- It refines earlier payroll estimates but only finalises next year, so it is not a current monthly signal.
Unemployment Rate Data Remains Unchanged
- The household survey that determines the unemployment rate is unchanged by the payroll benchmarking.
- That limits how much the Fed will rethink its view of spare labour capacity based solely on this revision.
Focus On Recent Momentum, Not Just Revisions
- Do not overreact to the preliminary payroll benchmarking when assessing Fed policy.
- Watch recent momentum and household labour metrics instead, since they drive policy decisions.