NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 3rd September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Skye Masters says rising government debt is a global issue, but it’s being felt particularly in the UK, where falling confidence in the government is souring sentiment further. As a consequence, 30 year yields rose to the highest level since 1998. As Phil points out, that’s the year Google was founded, and Apple came out with the iMac. US yields are also higher, in part because of continued concern about rising debt if President Trump has to relinquish his tariffs and trade deals. But that won’t happen, will it? He’ll find a way through. Meanwhile, the first bit of key jobs news tonight in the US, with the release of the JOLTs, job openings, data.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rodrigo Catril from NAB Markets Research shares insights on the latest Aussie GDP figures and their implications. He highlights how economic uncertainties in the U.S. and global power dynamics are pushing gold prices to new heights. The conversation touches on the role of the dollar's weakness in elevating gold as a safe-haven asset. Catril also discusses the geopolitical landscape with leaders like Putin, Xi, and Modi, and how their relationships affect market stability and investor confidence in gold.

Monday 1st September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThis could shape up to be quite a busy week, with an expected mix of political and data-driven headlines. But it gets off to a slow start with equity and bond markets closed in the US on Monday for Labour Day. The week ramps up towards the latest non-farm payrolls on Friday, taking in Australia’s Q2 GDP along the way. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it would take a lot for payrolls to divert the Fed away from a September cut. And expect more this week on the legality or otherwise of President Trump’s tariffs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 29th August 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Ten years ago Robin Khuda had a vision that data centres needed to be much bigger. Hyper-scaling, as they call it. Back then there was about 400 megawatts of capacity in Australian data centres, and three or four gigawatts across Asia-Pacific & Japan. Today, AirTrunk has two gigawatts portfolio of hyperscale data centres, with big expansion plans across the region. They are attracting big money to fund this expansion, which is responding to the needs of the major tech players and their AI trajectory. Phil talks to Carly Wishart, AirTrunk’s managing director, corporate and international, and Prashant Murthy, managing director capital and strategy. He asks how they move swiftly, secure the necessary funding, stand out from the competition and not run the risk of overbuilding. And what innovative approaches are emerging to power AI responsibly and sustainably? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 29th August 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed is expected to cut even though the latest GDP numbers show an economy growing – and maybe the PCE numbers today will show inflation is rising. So, is a cut the right thing to do? It’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Ken Crompton who says, even though September seems bolted on, markets are stepping back on the speed of cuts beyond that. Although that could be determined by how many supporters President Trump parachutes onto the Fed board. A busy day for data lies ahead, including a major dump from Japan and inflation numbers from Europe. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 28th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday’s big news is the 50% tariff slapped on India. Sally Auld says it presents a challenge for India. The tariff is high enough for US importers to look elsewhere for substitute goods. It’ll be welcome news in Europe, though, because the tariff is to stop India buying Russian oil. Europe is, itself, considering secondary tariffs. It’s also fast-tracking an end to many tariffs on US imports, in the hope of bringing down Trump’s tariff on European cars. That’s all interesting stuff but markets are most interested in NVIDIA earnings, which disappointed only in that they didn’t exceed expectations. Still, that seem enough to drag shares down across the chip sector. Phil also asks Sally why Australian inflation came in so much higher than expected yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 27th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump posted an open letter to the Fed’s Lisa Cook saying she was removed from her position, effectively immediately. Legal proceedings will almost certainly follow, particularly ss she has not yet been charged with any crime, but, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent discusses on today’s podcast, markets have taken it in their stride, apart from a mild steepening in the yield curve.Aside from that it’s been a quiet session. US consumer confidence data showed continued rising concerns over jobs, but not enough to impact markets, with equities back on the rise today. It’s another quiet session ahead, with Australian CPI the main local interest. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 26th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe initial excitement over a seemingly dovish Jerome Powell on Friday has subsided at the start of the week. Bond yields are rising, and equities are falling. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says Powel was really quite hawkish in his tone, with a weak jobs report or higher inflation (or both) likely to dampen expectations around the number of cuts this year. Meanwhile, Elon Musk is suing Apple and OpenAI, the Trump administration is threatening sanctions on Europe over their digital services taxes, and there’s a vote of no confidence in the French government. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 25th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFed chair Jerome Powell surprise markets on Friday when his speech at Jackson Hole had a decided dovish tilt to it. Bond markets reacted but, as NAB’s ray Attrill explains, it didn’t move pricing too much for a September cut. The question is whether more will follow, particularly if the US President manages to oust Lisa Cook and get one of his sympathisers in there. If that forces a faster pace of cuts Ray believes markets will become concerned about inflation becoming unanchored. For now, though, equity markets are happy, particularly the Russell2000 which soared 3.9 percent on Friday.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 22nd August 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.UIS trade policy has been turbulent, to put it mildly, since Liberation Day in April. Tariffs have moved up and down, some geographic, others sectoral. The reasons have fluctuated, from  stopping fentanyl, to trade imbalance, to political concerns. The benefits have been argued as protecting jobs, brining industries back home to raising revenue.Dmitry Grozoubinski runs Explain Trade from Geneva, training government officials on complex trade negotiations. He has been involved in  many, having represented Australia at the WTO from 2014 to 2018. His latest book is ‘Why Politicians Lie About Trade’. He joins Phil to talk about this new trade environment, where deals take weeks not years. How should countries be negotiating in this new regime? How long will the current state of flux last? And is a high tariff trade environment the new normal? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.