Monday 28th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAfter that leap in margins for Tesla last week, all eyes will be on a plethora of big-tech earnings this week. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it could be a volatile week, with the VIX index pushing over 20 on Friday. It’s been a busy weekend with the Japanese election unlikely to bring an outright majority. What does that mean for the BoJ? China released data showing even more of an economic slowdown, along with dates for the National People’s Congress which could ratify a rescue plan. This week there’s a lot of data to come, including US AND European Q3 GDP and US payrolls at the end of the week. Locally, all eyes will be on Australian inflation data middle of the week.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

John Barron, an ABC journalist and co-host of Planet America, dives into the battleground of the upcoming US elections. He highlights the neck-and-neck race between Trump and Harris, questioning the reliability of polls and betting odds. Barron discusses Trump's potential policies, like tariff increases and immigration strategies, while shedding light on the challenges faced by traditional polling methods. The conversation also touches on the complex motivations driving Trump's political tactics and upcoming election uncertainties.

Friday 25th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere have been small moves up and down in the latest PMIs. Germany saw a slight rise in services and manufacturing, but the Europe wide services number fell slightly. And the UK’s star has dimmed a little, as its manufacturing fell quite sharply, alongside a drop in the services number. Catherine Mann from the BoE gave a clear indication she won’t be voting for a cut in a hurry, and RBNZ’s Governor Orr tried hard to talk down the case for further big cuts. Could 50bp be off the table? And Donald Trump pushes ahead in the latest WSJ poll. Listen to our Weekend Edition for more on what a Trump presidency could look like.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 24th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been another session of a rising US dollar, yields climbing a little and falling equities. Nab’S Ken Crompton says there have been some weak earnings results that are adding to cautions in the share market. The Bank of Canada cut rates by 50bp, as expected, hence there wasn’t a great deal of market reaction. The question is, will the ECB follow suit? They are below their inflation target, but Christine Lagarde tried to set a note of caution to the markets during her talk in Washington. Global PMIs are out today, but no big changes are expected. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 23rd October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhat do markets do when there’s no big data releases and a slump in earnings results of interest? Not much is the answer. Phil talks to JBWere’s Sally Auld about another quiet session, with markets clearly hesitant about the US election, the pace of Fed easing and the price of equities. The steepening of the yield curve could be a reflection of an expected Trump victory. They also discuss the revisions in the latest IMF World Economic Outlook, which has basically upped US growth a little at the expense of just about everybody else. But they note, the risk is to the downside. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 22nd October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSome curious market moves this season with very little around in terms of data. So, with no hard facts to drive he agenda, what’s going on? Phil asks whether, as the election in the US draws nearer, whether we are seeing more indications of a developing Trump trade. It’s not obvious, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, with equities taking a hit, in particular financials and health, that are normal participants in the trump trade. Gold is pushing ever higher though, presumably a sign of nervousness ahead of the big day. Phil and Ray also talk about Andrew Hauser’s comments about RBA cuts yesterday and look ahead to another quiet day today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 21st October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABChina’s CSI300 rose sharply on Friday. There was some positive data released, although in general the picture shows an economy that is slowing, held back by falling house prices. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the interest in shares on Friday was driven by policies aimed at share buybacks. Japan’s inflation provided more ammunition for hikes, eventually, whilst UK retail sales provided another reason for the Bank of England to avoid rushing into cuts. This week the Bank of Canada will announce its next rate cut, and the RBA’s Andrew Hauser gives a fireside chat where he will no doubt reiterate that they too see no need to rush into cuts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th October 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.NAB is in the thick of it, along with the rest of corporate Australia, and the government, fighting cyber-crime. This month is cyber-crime month and the message for consumers is clear - keep devices and software up to date, use strong and unique passwords and recognise and report phishing. Meanwhile, what’s being done behind the scenes to beat the criminals? Chris Sheehan, General Manager for NAB group investigations, says it’s an asymmetrical battle. That doesn’t mean NAB is losing, just that there must be constant awareness of what’s coming next. Does that mean teams of NAB people are lurking in the dark web, posing as wrongdoers? And what’s the risk that, despite all best efforts, the cyber criminals win and the whole system comes crashing down? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday18th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe ECB has cut rates with Christine Lagarde saying the disinflationary process is on track. NAB’s Gavin Friend says since the last meeting inflation has come down, and lower growth will be giving the bank confidence that it will continue in that direction. Nonetheless, base effects might see a temporary rise in core and headline rates that make it difficult to signal back-to-back cuts, even though the weakness in the economy could well demand it. Meanwhile strong jobs data In Australia should be the final nail for those looking for another RBA cut this year. Similarly, strong retail sales growth in the USA demonstrates a resilient economy that can survive without rapid rate cuts. On that basis could we see the Fed move just once before Christmas? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 17th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABInflation is slowing faster than expected in the UK. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton whether this means the Bank of England could cut twice before Christmas? Markets have fully priced a cut from the ECB later today, the question is, what next and when? Australian employment numbers and US retail sales are out today, along with a further announcement on housing and debt from the China. Ken says it’s another “drip feed in the ocean of fiscal stimulus” – are markets prepared to be disappointed this time? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.