NAB Morning Call

Thursday 25th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUnexpectedly positive data out of the US, including an upward revision to GDP, has push ed equities lower, and adds to the question of when does the Fed need to cut. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to dissect the data and examine the (still very varied) views of Fed speakers. It depends on the inflation data, of course, out later today. But if growth is picking up, if the job market isn’t weakening as much as first thought, could inflation pick up faster? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 25th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAussie inflation numbers were a bit higher than expected yesterday. On the surface it didn’t seem to be too much of an upside surprise, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent tells Phil that the devil was in the detail, with worrying indicators around services inflation. Taylor says this will have a material impact on the quarterly inflation print. As a result, it is changing its forecasts for rate cuts. Whereas the expectation was for moves down in November and February, now it’ll be well into the new year before the first cut. Phil asks, can we be sure the next move will be down? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 24th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNot a lot of movement in the markets today, and what there has been mostly comes from what’s not being said. Jerome Powell didn’t give any commitment to a path of cuts from the Fed, instead focusing on the rising challenges of inflation and employment. It was enough to drive bond yields lower and stop the forward momentum in the US share market, particularly for tech stocks. For now. Meanwhile, Donald Trump didn’t hold back at the UN, giving his forthright views on immigration and the climate ‘hoax’. Today the focus is on Australian CPI. NAB’s Sally Auld, on the road in Narrabri, tells us what to look out for in that set of numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 23rd September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been light-on for data so far this week, so the focus has been on the words of central bankers, starting with Michelle Bullock’s testimony to the House Economics Committee, followed by Fed speakers overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says the sentiment is slightly more hawkish, which is why bond yields are edging up slowly. Equity markets aren’t concerned though, particularly tech stocks where demand is high and deals are being done to pick up the pace of AI. Today the focus will be on the PMIs for Europe and the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 22nd September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s one thing US equity markets seem to love – no news. If there’s no news they’ll assume everything is good. That was the case on Friday with the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P all reaching new highs. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk about what news was driving markets, including the fall in Sterling after news of a rising government deficit, a continued slump in retail sales for Canada. There was also quite a lively Bank of Japan meeting it seems. Phil asks, with the week starting light on data will US equities continue to break records. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th September 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.A couple of weeks ago we talked about how Stablecoin in the US was seen as a means to drive demand for the expanding supply of US treasuries. What we didn’t touch on  was why people would want to use Stablecoin.’ There are so many different use cases,’ says Drew Bradford, CEO of Catena Digital, currently Australia’s only stablecoin provider. Phil asks whether it will; move from the finance sector to cover more B2B payments, and beyond to B2C transactions.There are clear benefits: it’s faster and cheaper than legacy systems. Drew adds that its more flexible, with the ability to program transactions. That’s useful for traders but could also apply to broader transactions where payment is made on delivery, for example?So if it’s such a golden opportunity, what are the risks? How should it be regulated? And what’s the upside potential for Australian stablecoin providers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a busy week for central banks, with many staying on hold. The Bank of England was one of them, but they did announce a slowdown in their QT program. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the path for the BoE, the glacial rate of cuts from the Norge Bank and expectations for the Bank of Japan today. Meanwhile markets have responded well to the Fed’s more hawkish outlook, helped a little perhaps by a sharp rise in the Philly Fed manufacturing index. They also discuss yesterday’s Australian employment numbers and the softer GDP print for New Zealand. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ken Crompton, an economist from NAB Markets Research, dives into the recent rate cut by the Fed and its implications for the markets. He discusses Jerome Powell's cautious yet strategic approach amid rising inflation and potential labor market weaknesses. The conversation also touches on the Bank of Canada's rate cut, the anticipation surrounding the Bank of England's decisions, and what upcoming Australian employment data might mean for the RBA. Crompton's insights shed light on the dynamics of global central banking.

Tuesday 14th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are a little more cautious today a day out from the Fed. Maybe it’s been compounded by stronger tbhan expected data out of the us, particularly retail sales. Maybe less cuts will be needed. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether we can expect some market repricing after the dots plot from the Fed tomorrow morning. And the Euro hit a 4 year high. And it’s not just the Fed in the next 24 hours; there’s also the Bank of Canada after a softer than expected CPI read overnight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are positioning themselves for the Fed and the assumption seems to be that the cut this week will be the start of a broader easing cycle. But what if it isn’t? NAB’s Sally Auld says growth and unemployment are both tracking close to the Fed’s forecasts in June, so we are unlikely to see a mass revision to the dots at tomorrow’s Fed meeting. The activity data out of China was not a good news story, though. Sally talks Phil through the numbers, and they look ahead to a busy calendar for the next 24 hours, including US retail sales, Canadian and NZ CPI and UK unemployment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.