NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 5th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIs Donald Trump’s bark worse than his bite? At the last moment President Trump has stalled tariffs on Mexico for a month to give them time to negotiate a deal. As yet, no similar reprieve for Canada but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, it has moderated the reaction, particularly in equities and FX markets. “Time to reread The Art of the Deal,” says Ray. Does this mean future proclamations are less solid? China, meanwhile, seems more conciliatory in its response, with the Wall Street Journal suggesting they want to return to a deal made in 2020 in which they promised to buy $200billion in US goods. At the time the President called it the “greatest deal ever made”. Will that be enough to pacify him this time? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tapas Strickland, NAB’s expert market economist and strategist, sheds light on the economic landscape shaped by recent US tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. He discusses how these tariffs could redefine expectations for global growth and inflation. Strickland delves into the repercussions on GDP and market reactions, while also considering labor market indicators like rising employment costs. The discussion highlights the complexities of international trade relationships and potential retaliatory actions from other nations.

Friday 31st Janaury 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.It doesn’t take a genius to work out that the high price of housing is a function of supply and demand. Supply just isn’t keeping up with the growth in the population. But is that the only reason?Phil presents some alternative theories to Peter Tulip, chief economist at the Centre for Independent Studies. The availability of cheap credit, for example. Or government subsidies like the first-home buyer’s scheme.Peter argues these have all had little impact on long term prices, and it really does get down to supply and demand. He provides compelling evidence from home and overseas. Why this imbalance? NIMBYism? Perhaps the government's focus should be ondispelling the belief that more people mean worse local services. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 31st January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe ECB cut rates as expected but, in line with other central banks lately, prefers not to map out their expectations for further cuts. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the market is fairly certain that more cuts will follow. Meanwhile, NAB has brought forward the timing of the next RBA cut - now expected in February.   Ken explains why the bank has changed its tune. There’s also talk about the response to yesterday’s Fed meeting and tech earnings, why gold is so strong and why the Yen has been the biggest currency mover this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 30th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhat do the Fed, the Riksbank and the Bank of Canada all have in common? Well, they all just made rate policy announcements, but they have all refused to provide forward guidance, or even determine where inflation is heading. JB Were’s Sally Auld says there’s a lot more uncertainty beyond domestic fundamentals, US trade policy being a significant part of that. The Fed, for example, removed the statement from last time about continued disinflationary progress. It’s been a significant session, with the Fed followed by earnings from big tech players, including Microsoft, Meta and Tesla.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 29th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS tech stocks regained some of their losses yesterday, and bond yields are back up today.  Why? Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether the Deepseek fears were overblown. Taylor doesn’t think so, and tech bosses will have to have a convincing story to tell as they announce earnings results later this week. Meanwhile the US dollar has gained some ground on speculation that US tariffs will start low, but increase steadily from month to month, but it remains a confusing picture with talk of greater tariffs for Canada and Mexico, Taiwanese chip components and Colombia. Today the focus will be on Aussie CPI and the rate announcements from the Fed, the Bank of Canada and the Riksbank. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rodrigo Catril, NAB’s market strategist, sheds light on how China's rapid advancements in AI are causing US investors to rethink their strategies. He discusses the implications of this competition for American tech companies, particularly in the semiconductor sector. The conversation dives into market shifts, with a notable move toward bonds and safe-haven currencies like the yen. Catril also highlights the potential political ramifications and how these changes might affect future negotiations ahead of the upcoming election.

Friday 24th January 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Telcos, like Telstra and Optus, have been forced to change a lot over recent years. Their traditional revenues – providing phone calls and text messages – are disappearing, replaced by data access. But even that faces pressures, as people’s data demands increase at a faster rate than their willingness to pay.Luke Coleman, the newly appointed CEO of the industry body The Communications Alliance describes to Phil how telcos are changing. The major online providers, like Google, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon, need an increasing amount of resilient, reliable data storage and processing power. Telcos have an increasing role in providing these centres, or, at the very least, the high speed fibre connections between these centres. As Luke explains, it’s growing, it has to stay on-shore, and continues to provide an opportunity for Australian investors. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 24th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABStrickland says he was much more conciliatory concerning his relationship with China, whilst reiterating that companies the world over have a choice to produce goods in America, at the world’s lowest tax rates, or face tariffs on exports into America. He also asked OPEC to reduce oil prices, which did lower prices for a short while, but didn’t hold. There’s also discussion about the Norgesbank on the podcast today, who find themselves in a very similar position to the RBA, and the global PMIs today, possibly reinforcing the case of America exceptionalism. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 23rd January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere weren’t massive moves in any asset classes overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says bonds were range bound with very little in the way of data, and nothing concrete from any of President Trump’s more contentious plans, particularly tariffs. It seems a review of trade will be completed on April 1st, so we could face several months of speculation before details firm up, meanwhile tech stocks have done well, in part because of strong earnings, such as Netflix after the close yesterday, as well as Trump’s proposed AI Masterplan. It’s second tier data today and tomorrow night, including Canadian retail sales and the US weekly jobless claims numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.