NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 22nd January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s the first full day for Donald Trump in the White House and markets are already assuming tariffs will take a bit of time and perhaps won’t be as pervasive as he was initially letting on. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the market response, which has assumed, ultimately, there will be a less radical approach to trade, with tariffs used as a leverage for a better trade balance. For Europe, for example, that could mean buying more energy and defence. On his counter to inflation, through a program of ‘drill baby drill’ Gavin doubts the US oil and gas industry will be that keen on upping production and seeing prices lowered. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 21st January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDonald Trump is now the US President again. At his inauguration speech, on what he called Liberation Day, he outlined a slew of Executive Orders that he will sign in the next few hours. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says hours ahead of the inauguration the Wall Street Journal published a suggestion that tariffs might not be implemented from day one. That doesn’t mean they are off the agenda, however. The new President talked of an External Revenue Service that will collect “massive amount of money” from foreign countries as part of an overhaul of the trade system, that will see consumers paying less tax on goods, instead the cost will be incurred by foreign companies through tariffs and taxes. Taylor and Phil talk through some of the other plans and schemes that the new President intends to enact. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 20th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS markets are closed today, so a quiet start to a potentially very volatile week, depending on what executive orders the new President issues in his first week in The White House. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there was a reaction in the US dollar to a social media comment from Trump that a call with President Xi had gone well. There’s also been speculation in the Wall Street Journal about how China will respond to hefty tariffs, if imposed. If the response is to oversee the weakening of the Chinese currency, what impact will that have on the Aussie? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th January 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The ABS Labour Market data showed a strong rise in the number of people employed in Australia. The unemployment rate at 4 percent is where it was a year ago, but more people have joined the workforce. So, why are more people taking on jobs? Phil talks to Bjorn Jarvis, branch head for Labour Statistics at the ABS. He provides some useful answers about who these new workers are and the perplexity about why Australia has a higher participation rate than many other countries. He provides some useful insights, but naturally steers away from the question everyone has -  is this low level of unemployment and high participation inflationary? And, after a year around 4 percent, is there anything to suggest the unemployment rate will tick higher anytime soon? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets responded to a more dovish stance taken by the Fed’s Chrsitopher Waller, interviewed on CNBC. There was also some reassurance from the confirmation hearing into the intended Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says he said exactly what markets wanted to hear, including his commitment to the independence of the Fed. Whilst strong retail data in the US supports the case for an economy doing well, UK GDP growth has stalled and the ECB minutes highlighted that monetary policy might be too aggressive in light of slow economic growth, that could cause an undershoot inflation targeting. There’s also discussion about yesterday’s Australian employment numbers and what the resilience means for the direction of the RBA. And today we find out whether China hit their 5% growth target last year, alongside a number of economic indicators. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ken Crompton, NAB’s market economist, shares insights on the recent CPI data, revealing its potential to prompt multiple Fed rate cuts this year. He discusses how declining inflation is impacting bond markets, causing yields to fall across the globe. Crompton also highlights the surprising employment data from Australia, pondering whether it indicates a tight labor market or prompts a shift in the RBA's inflation views. The geopolitical ceasefire in the Middle East barely affected market responses, with optimism prevailing in equities and bonds.

Wednesday 15th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are holding out for today’s US CPI print, but JBWere’s Sally Auld says its unlikely to move the dial much on the timing of Fed rate moves. The US dollar is weaker, for once, perhaps because of reports that Donald Trump will drip-feed tariff increases to help contain inflationary impacts. He is, meanwhile, talking up his policy on energy dominance from day one. There’s also discussion on Australian consumer confidence, Chinas credit data, US and NZ business confidence – they couldn’t be further apart – and the plethora of Fed speakers getting their oar in today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US dollar continues to rise. Bond yields are also pushing higher. How long can this continue for? How much is because of rising concerns about persistent inflation, and how much is priced in for Trump uncertainty? If it’s the latter, could some of these moves quickly unwind, particularly if the new president’s bark is worse than his bite? All questions Phil puts to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril on today’s podcast, plus the rising price of oil, trade data from China and the latest take-outs from speakers from the ECB, BoJ and the Fed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 13th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil on the podcast this morning, where the inflation outlook is very different to where we were before Christmas. Ray says Fed-speak last week was already pushing back expectations for a rate cut in the US, then a much stronger than anticipated payrolls number of Friday reaffirmed those concerns. That’s pushed yields higher and weekend equities, whilst the US dollar continues to rise, at the expense of all other major currencies. With US inflation data this week, prepare for a choppy one. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

2024 has been a rollercoaster for the economy, showcasing surprising U.S. growth amidst global challenges. As markets soar with AI influences, concerns about Trump’s tariffs loom large. The discussion turns to rising inflation and its repercussions for central banks like the Reserve Bank of Australia. Predictions swirl about the bond market and fluctuating currencies, particularly the Aussie dollar. Strategies for navigating these uncertainties, especially around overvalued U.S. equities, formulating a defensive approach, close out the lively conversation.