Rodrigo Catril joins to share his expertise on central banking and financial markets. He discusses the imminent Jackson Hole Symposium and speculates on whether Jerome Powell will hint at rate cuts. Markets are showing optimism with consecutive growth in the S&P index. The conversation also touches on the Riksbank potentially making significant rate changes and how recent data from Canada could influence its decisions. Consumer sentiment improvement amidst volatility and the challenges in the U.S. housing market also make for compelling insights.

Friday 16th August 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.A report last week from S&P Global highlights that the debt held by Australian states could exceed $600 billion later this year. Rebecca Hrvatin joins Phil to discuss this rise in debt and what it’s doing to credit ratings. Overspend on infrastructure projects seem to be one of the major concerns.But there’s no shortage of buyers according to Ken Crompton. Ken is senior fixed income strategist at NAB and a regular on The Morning Call. He says, ironically, greater debt will be attractive to overseas investors who might previously have been put off by the limited availability of Australian state debt.The issue going forward is not how much debt is being carried, but how effectively it’s being managed. Massive project overspends are part of the problem and interest payments are becoming an increasing proportion of state governments’ expenditure.Phil asks whether green bonds could restore some balance and attract even more foreign buyers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rodrigo Catril, a market research expert, shares insights on the unexpectedly strong US retail sales and their impact on equities and bond yields. He discusses how this signals resilience against recession fears, affecting Federal Reserve policies. The conversation highlights the UK’s modest GDP growth and the challenges facing Europe amidst rising yields. Catril also explores the relationship between weather patterns and retail trends, as well as the paradox of rising employment but increasing unemployment in Australia.

Thursday 15th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS shares moved up slightly – except for the Russell 2000 - and bond yields fell a little, after the release of the US Core CPI print overnight. The response was muted because the data came in pretty much as expected. It was anyone’s guess where the RBNZ was heading, but we expected a cut on the advice of the BNZ and that’s what we saw. And NAB’s Gavin Friend proudly conveys the positive vibes from Britain, where inflation came in softer than expected, with the hope of a strong GDP growth number later today. If markets weren’t moved by US CPI, will the jobless claims repeat the influence they had this time last week, coupled with the latest retail sales numbers and a couple of regional manufacturing reports. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 14th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSofter than expected producer prices in the US has convinced the markets that the Fed will be ready to cut in September. NAB’s Skye Masters says in an environment where decisions by central banks are so data dependent we are seeing wide shifts in sentiment, particularly in equity and bond markets, as each release is published. That means the markets at the US close on Wednesday could be violently different on Thursday when US CPI is released. We can also expect some volatility from the RBNZ decision today, with analysts split on whether or not the NZ central bank will cut rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this discussion, Taylor Nugent from NAB Markets Research shares insights on the calmness in US shares and bonds as the market awaits crucial inflation data. Andrew Hauser from the RBA critiques the media's overconfidence in economic forecasting and its impact on rate cut pricing. They delve into upcoming economic indicators, rising geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices, and the delicate balance between market optimism and the RBA's cautious stance. Expect insightful takes on wage pressures and the evolving economic landscape.

Monday 11th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABRemember when Pauk Keating talked about the recession we had to have? Markets thought the US was heading the same way last week, but went off the idea as the week progressed. Thoughts of an emergency rate cut were quickly dismissed, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s still more than 25bp of cuts priced in for September. A 50bp cut could still happen before the end of the year. US inflation data is out this week but, unless there’s an outsize surprise, markets are unlikely to respond too much. The focus is on jobs now, although the Fed’s Michelle Bowman outlined several inflation risk factors on Friday that are worth watching for.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 9th August 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Friday (Aug 9th) is the United Nations' International Day of the World's Indigenous Peoples. To celebrate, the Morning Call looks at how Australia is witnessing a growth in companies established and run by Indigenous Peoples.NAB’s Noel Prakash says there’s been a shift from predominantly cultural and tourism related entities, to more mainstream businesses. He talks about Kooya as one example, providing fleet management and salary packing services to mineral businesses in Western Australia.There’s the obvious opportunity for more to be done in the green space, too, from a people with a deep-rooted attachment to the earth. But what’s stopping us from having more Indigenous entrepreneurs? Noel talks about how NAB is amongst those offering more capital for start-ups, and how on a global scale even Twitter founder Jack Dorsey sees the size of the opportunity that can come from the right investment in Indigenous projects. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 9th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was a sharp turnaround in US equities, with the S&P closing up 2.3%. It seems a lot of weight has been put behind the weekly jobless claims number, which is not normally a data point that would drive markets. But in this climate anything is possible. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it was probably an overreaction. Whilst some might see the week’s fall in claims as supporting an argument that the US is a long way from recession, others will point to the trend which shows claims are rising and the job market is weakening. In Australia the RBA’s Michelle Bullock stepped up the language around the persistence of inflation to try and knock out expectations of cuts this year, and the rising Aussie dollar is a sign that maybe the markets are listening. Today, China’s inflation numbers and Canada’s employment data are the two main releases.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 8th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere is still a lot of volatility around. US shares started the session well, with strong signs that risk appetite was improving. Then came a weak response to a a $42 billion 10-year bond auction. That made markets nervous and US equities closed sharply in the red. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about why the auction didn’t go well, and the influence Japan is still having on markets, influenced yesterday and overnight by words from BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida. Today the NAB Business Survey is out and the RBA’s Michelle Bullock speaks early afternoon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.