NAB Morning Call

Friday 20th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs we recovered in the later editions of the Morning Call yesterday there was a strong market response to the Fed yesterday -from the statement and the press conference. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains, there’s been a slight reversal in equity markets today, but nothing significant, and the US dollar continues to push higher. Since then, the Bank of Japan has done as expected, but still managed to weaken the Yen, perhaps because some are now wondering whether a rate rise won’t happen until March. The Bank of England kept on hold, but with a divided board. The Norges Bank and Riksbank did as expected. Meanwhile a s surprise in yesterday’s New Zealand GDP. Good news or bad?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 19th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed has cut interest rates as expected, and they have halved the number of cuts they expect next year. As NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, there was only one dissenter, wanting to keep rates on hold. That seems highly likely next time, as the Fed dot plot sees just two cuts next year, eventually aiming for an expected neutral rate close to 3 percent.Also, UK CPI didn’t surprise, and the Bank of England isn’t expected to either, keeping rates on hold, as inflationary pressures, though falling, remain high. The Bank of Japan also meets today. Another case of hold, but an expectation of a small rise early next year. And New Zealand’s economy is expected to show a second quarterly decline this morning.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Skye Masters, NAB's market strategist known for her keen insights into financial trends, dives into the surprising rise in UK wages and its impact on bond markets. She discusses how this has created a historic yield spread between UK and German bonds, reflecting significant monetary policy differences. Masters also analyzes the mixed signals from U.S. retail sales and the implications for consumer sentiment in Australia. Finally, she speculates on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and their effects on U.S. Treasury yields.

Taylor Nugent, an economist at NAB Markets Research, shares insights on the latest economic trends. He highlights the surprising strength of service sector PMIs in the US, Europe, and the UK, contrasting them with declining manufacturing figures. Nugent discusses the implications of high wage growth in the UK on Bank of England policies and examines the resilience of the Australian dollar. He also analyzes the broader global economic landscape, touching on housing market influences in China and Japan, and anticipates upcoming data releases.

Ray Attrill, NAB’s market economist and strategist, breaks down the critical actions of central banks, predicting rate cuts by the Fed and Riksbank, while others hold steady. He analyzes China's stagnant bank loan growth, urging a balanced fiscal policy for recovery. The discussion also touches on Japan's economic indicators and the cautious monetary approach due to political challenges. Finally, Attrill highlights the widening economic gap between the US and Europe as PMI data looms, with France facing credit downgrades amid economic struggles.

Friday 6th December 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Next year the Australian economy will see slow and measured improvement, according to NAB's CEO Andrew Irvine. It’ll be boosted, though, by the first rate cut, which Andrew says will have a significant impact on the psyche of businesses and consumers.In his first appearance on The Morning Call the NAB boss talks about housing affordability, productivity and how NAB will stand up against its competitors in the banking sector. He gives his views on where Australia will stand in five years’ time, the opportunities we need to engage with, and what’s holding the country back.In many cases he shares his observations of Australia in relation to Canada, a country he knows well. When it comes to productivity and housing, he thinks we can learn a few things. But he admits, the coffee is a lot better here.Join Phil talking to Andrew Irvine in his first at-length interview since taking the role. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday, NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the market response to the unexpected fall in Australian unemployment numbers yesterday, with the drop most significant in Victoria. The Swiss National Bank provided another surprise, with a 50bp rate cut, with a 25bp cut from the ECB, accompanied by lacklustre growth forecasts for the next few years. Today, the RBA’s Sarah Hunter is speaking at a lunch in Adelaide, with a Q&A session where the media will undoubtedly ask about the fall in unemployment and how that impacts their rate cut trajectory. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this engaging discussion, Gavin Friend, NAB's market economist, unpacks the intricacies of global monetary policy. He analyzes the Fed's imminent decision on interest rate cuts and delves into the Bank of Canada's recent moves, highlighting their effects on economic indicators. Friend also examines the challenges central banks face amid contradictory policies and shares insights on upcoming Australian employment data. Tune in for a deep dive into the complex dynamics shaping our financial landscape!

Wednesday 11th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have responded to what some have seen as a dovish pivot by the RBA, in the wording of their statement yesterday and the post-meeting press conference. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says there are still inflation concerns, hence NAB is sticking with its expectation that a cut probably won’t happen till May. Still, the Aussie and NZ dollars both took a hit yesterday and are still well down this morning. The US dollar, meanwhile, has been boosted by a sharp rise in small business sentiment in the latest NFIB survey. It’s clearly a Trump bounce. Will his delivery match expectations? And the second dove of Christmas? Well, presumably the Bank of Canada. You can’t get more dovish than a 50bp rate cut, which is what’s expected tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 10th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBeijing has announced more in the way of fiscal and monetary stimulus to get the Chinese economy back on its feet. NAB’s Ken Crompton says it’s still light on the detail, but it caught markets a little off-guard, with nothing expected till later in the week. The response was most pronounced in Chinese equities, but oil is also higher and so is the Australia and NZ dollars.  Today the RBA is likely to announce that rates won’t budge, but the detail will come from the press conference that follows. The NAB Business Survey is also out today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.