NAB Morning Call

Monday 9th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWe can expect three central banks to cut rates this week, and one to hold steady. No surprises that the RBA is the one firmly expect to stand pat, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says a higher-than-expected unemployment rate in Canada saw pricing increase for a 50bpcut by the Bank of Canada this week. Friday’s US non-farm payrolls also increased slightly expectations for a 25bp cut by the Fed next week. US CPI numbers are out middle of the week, but Fed speakers won’t be able to comment with the pre-meeting lockdown in place. The Aussie dollar was the worst performer of the major currencies last week, in part because of Aussie GDP numbers, but also because of global geopolitical uncertainty. There’s even more of that now with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the unknown implications from of the power vacuum it creates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th December 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Have Australians who ignored the rise of the Magnificent Seven lost out? NAB’s Gemma Dale says they will have still done pretty well with Australian equities, which have performed better than many other parts of the world, like the UK and Europe, for example. But how will investors cope with the uncertainties of the next 12 months? How do you plan for Trump’s trade policies, subsequent changes to supply chains and the rising US dollar? How do you look for winners  before they hit the big time? Or do you, as many Aussie investors tend to, simply look for opportunities and buy the dip. Phil talks to Gemma about the year we’ve been through for Australian equity investors and what the next year will bring.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rodrigo Catril, NAB’s market economist and strategist, shares insights on the U.S. non-farm payrolls report and its implications for the Fed's monetary policy. He discusses how upcoming CPI data could shift rate cut expectations. The political landscape in France is also unraveling, with tensions rising post-confidence votes and Macron's strategic hesitations. Additionally, OPEC+ maintains a cautious approach to oil production, reflecting the uncertain global demand. Catril’s analysis ties together these economic threads with implications for international markets.

Thursday 5th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia’s growth numbers yesterday were a bit slower than most had expected, although in-line with NAB’s expectations. Nonetheless it was below consensus and NAB’s Gavin Friend says that was brought forward expectations for a rate cut, although that could easily slip back. The short-term impact has been a weaker Aussie dollar against a US dollar which itself falling after a downside surprise on the Services ISM read overnight. A rare bit of soft US economic data, says Gavin. As we pressed record today France was going to vote on the government’s no-confidence motion, whilst Jerome Powell was taking part in a panel discussion that markets have been holding out for. We cover off some of the early take-outs from both. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Skye Masters, a market economist and strategist at NAB, delves into the intricate dynamics of global markets amidst significant geopolitical events. She explores how the recent martial law in Korea and France's political instability have surprisingly left the markets largely unshaken. Masters also discusses the implications of US employment trends and expected monetary policy shifts by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, she touches on Australia's latest GDP data, linking government policies to public sector growth and examining its broader economic impact.

Rodrigo Catril, an expert market economist and strategist at NAB, dives into the turbulent political landscape in France, particularly focusing on Marine Le Pen's potential to destabilize the government. He discusses the implications of this chaos on investor confidence and market dynamics. Meanwhile, strong economic indicators from the US raise questions about interest rate cuts. The conversation also highlights Australia's improving retail sales and the recent rise in China's manufacturing PMI, suggesting a complex interplay of global market forces.

Monday 2nd December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US is back at work after a long Thanksgiving weekend for many, back just in time for the week of non-farm payroll and other US jobs data, ahead of the Fed this month. Retail sales numbers will be highlight for Australian data today, with NAB’s Tapas Strickland suggesting Friday’s business credit provided further evidence that the RBA’s rates are currently not restrictive, making cuts even less likely in the short term. Also, on Friday hotter than expected Tokyo CPI data could encourage the Bank of Japan to move faster on a rate hike. Plus, the latest download on Trump policies, threats and claims. And today could be decision day for the French budget. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Harry Ishihara, a macro strategist for Macrobond and the Japan Exchange Group, sheds light on the dynamics of the Japanese carry trade amid a fluctuating yen. He emphasizes the cautious return of retail investors, the 'Mrs. Watanabes', despite recent challenges. Ishihara discusses Japan's economic recovery driven by strong foreign investments and changing consumer behaviors. He also addresses the evolving trade landscape under the new Trump administration and the implications for U.S.-Japan relations, especially in key industries like automotive and semiconductors.

Tapas Strickland, NAB's market economist, shares insights on the Reserve Bank of Australia's cautious stance on interest rate cuts compared to global trends. He highlights the upcoming governance changes where the RBA will split into two boards focusing separately on monetary policy. The conversation shifts to the economic implications for Australia and Europe, addressing inflation statistics and credit rating revisions. Strickland also notes the good news for Americans as Thanksgiving dinner costs decline, despite long-term price increases.

Ken Crompton, a market economist at NAB, shares his expert insights on the current economic landscape. He discusses the weaker dollar and declining share prices ahead of Thanksgiving, highlighting how thin trading impacts markets. Ken analyzes the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's recent rate decisions and hints at possible future cuts. He contrasts this with the European Central Bank's cautious stance and explores inflation trends in Germany and Australia. Listeners gain valuable perspectives on shifting economic sentiments and monetary policies.