NAB Morning Call

In this discussion, Tapas Strickland, a market economist at NAB, dives into the tumultuous economic waters stirred by potential US tariffs on Canada and Mexico. He highlights concerns over possible job losses in the steel and aluminum sectors, citing Alcoa's alarming warning. The conversation touches on shifts in consumer sentiment influenced by inflation fears and explores broader economic indicators, including Australia’s CPI, inviting listeners to consider the ripple effects of global trade tensions.

In this discussion, Sally Auld, NAB’s Chief Economist in waiting, shares her insights on market trends amidst a backdrop of geopolitical tensions. She highlights a rise in U.S. equities, despite soft economic indicators like the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey. Auld also delves into the implications of Germany's increased defense spending and Europe’s evolving stance on Ukraine. Additionally, she points to New Zealand's impressive retail sales as a sign of economic recovery, suggesting a cautious optimism for the markets ahead.

Political turbulence looms in Germany as Friedrich Merz contemplates coalition-building amidst a fragmented electorate and rising influence from the far right. Meanwhile, the U.S. faces economic anxiety, with plunging consumer sentiment and concerning inflation trends contributing to falling share prices. Additionally, emerging health threats like a new coronavirus strain exacerbate market uncertainty, raising questions about government policies and their impact on the economy. The backdrop of geopolitical tensions adds another layer of complexity to the unfolding financial landscape.

In this insightful discussion, Dr. Simon Toubeau, an Associate Professor of Politics and International Relations at Nottingham University, examines the critical German elections approaching. He analyzes the rise of the center-right CDU/CSU, the lurking presence of the AfD, and coalition dynamics. The conversation also tackles pressing issues like defense spending amidst the Ukraine crisis and the potential role of euro bonds. Dr. Toubeau raises important questions about Germany's fiscal policies and the implications of a shifting political landscape on Europe.

Join Rodrigo Catril, NAB’s market economist and strategist, as he delves into the complex interplay of politics and economics. He discusses Walmart's uncertain outlook and its implications for the US economy. The conversation shifts to Donald Trump's comments on a potential China deal, stirring global market reactions. Catril also analyzes the recent spike in Australian unemployment amidst job growth, shedding light on seasonal factors. Lastly, he highlights the political stakes in Germany's upcoming federal election and its impact on European policies.

Explore the European Central Bank's questioning of its interest rate policies and market reactions to central bank news. Delve into the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's unexpected rate cuts and the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve amid ongoing inflation. A significant drop in U.S. housing starts raises concerns, while all eyes are on Australia's unemployment rate, with tight expectations that could sway market reactions. Tune in for insights on how these factors intertwine with global economic trends.

Taylor Nugent, NAB’s expert on monetary policy, breaks down the recent RBA rate cut and its surprising cautious outlook for future cuts. He discusses how investor sentiment is shifting with the latest employment data from the UK and inflation trends in Canada. The conversation also touches on global geopolitical dynamics, including US-Russia talks and Europe’s push for a unified defense strategy. Insightful, timely, and full of economic intrigue, this discussion is a must-listen for anyone following market movements.

Tapas Strickland, NAB’s expert market economist and strategist, dives into the complexity of European defense amid rising geopolitical tensions. He discusses how U.S. pressure for Europe to boost self-reliance is driving a surge in defense stocks. The conversation highlights implications of OPEC+ decisions on oil prices and explores Japan's unexpectedly strong GDP growth. Strickland also critiques the Reserve Bank of Australia's cautious stance on interest rate cuts while unpacking the intricate dynamics between the EU, the U.S., and the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.

Monday 17th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYou’d have thought, perhaps, that the threat of tariffs on any country charging GST on US imports (most OECD countries) would have had a string market reaction at the end of the week, but it didn’t. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether markets have stopped believing him and assumes all such proclamations and merely a prelude to some sort of negotiated deal. The US dollar, meanwhile, continues to weaken and is now actually lower than when the President  returned to the Oval Office. The RBA is expected to cut interest rates tomorrow, but Ray says it’s not as a clear a cut as markets are suggesting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week Phil talks with NAB's CEO, Andrew Irvine, discussing the uncertainty of international trade and the slow road to lower inflation. What impact does he think a global trade war (if it gets to that) could have on Australia? And what can we expect after the assumed RBA rate cut next week? The NAB chief has spent some time in Europe and talks through how our economic fundamentals stack up against the UK and Europe. Whilst Australia has many natural advantages, he points to the lack of productivity growth as the biggest issue we face. Confidence is also key he says, because that drives investment decisions.There’s also discussion about scam regulation. Phil points to the UK where banks are obliged (to an extent) to refund scam victims. Do we need the same approach or are there more significant ways of reducing the problem, particularly as AI threatens to make the issue worse.Listen in for Andrew Irvine’s take on the economy and the prospects for the year ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.