NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 27th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNo big surprises in the FOMC minutes out this morning, with the Fed saying it continues to be data dependent, and that could mean a pause, or faster cuts. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are still split on whether a cut will happen in December, just as there’s an outside chance the RBNZ will cut by 75bp this week. The two big news stories of the morning though – a likely ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, and announcements of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada from day one of the presidency. Will either actually come to pass? Or last long? The widening spread in bond yields between France and Germany demonstrates the heightening concerns over French politics, even though Germany is hardly the “poster child” says Sally. Meanwhile, the latest Consumer Confidence survey shows the US is in quite a good place right now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 26th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have reversed their position a little for the first time since the US election results. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it reflects the response to Scott Benson as the likely new Treasury head, who is seen as a more moderate, safe pair of hands, who won’t impose blanket tariffs. That news has strengthened the Euro and helped the share price of US mid-caps who might have seen input prices rise if such a radical policy was imposed quickly. The day’s other positive news was the possibility of an Israel Hezbollah ceasefire. There’s nothing more concrete than positive words from the White House national security spokesperson, but it was enough to drive oil prices significantly lower. Rodrigo also tells us why tomorrows FOMC minutes will be particularly important, and why the latest NZ data won’t change the course of the RBNZ this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ray Attrill, an expert market economist and strategist at NAB, dives into the stark contrast between US exceptionalism and European economic woes. He discusses how higher-than-expected PMIs in the US highlight a robust market amid political unrest, while Europe struggles with sluggish performance. The conversation also explores the potential impact of Trump's tariff policies and shifting interest rate forecasts for various global economies. Attrill sheds light on the UK’s economic landscape and how these challenges may shape future central bank strategies.

Friday 22nd November 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The private credit market is growing in volume with no signs of abating. Brad Calleja, Executive Corporate Finance at NAB, says its difficult to put a precise figure on the size of the space because not all deals are visible, but it’s estimated globally at between $2 and $3 trillion. So, what is it and why is it growing so quickly? Brad explains that it is providing a vehicle for institutional funds, such as super funds, to achieve higher returns from higher risk, longer duration investments that sit outside the risk profiles of most banks. If that’s the case, what’s the role of a bank like NAB in private credit markets? Listen in to understand more. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 22nd November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAre NVIDIA investors a bit like Oliver Twist? They want more. That’s the take of NAB’s Skye Masters, who joins Phil on the Morning Call. The data was all second tier and none of it changed market expectations around the Fed’s path of rate cuts. US jobless claims were down, but continued claims were up, suggesting employers are letting less people go, but at the same time are not recruiting more. Positive news on housing, which can be choppy, was offset by gloomy news in the Philly Fed manufacturing outlook. So, it was a mixed picture overnight. The upshot, we need more solid data to get a clearer picture. Meanwhile, in the uncertainty, Bitcoin careers closer to the $100k mark. And will the promise of Roast Turkey drive up shares next week- which often happens on Thanksgiving week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 21st November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s no been much in the way of data to give markets any direction. Ahead of the NVIDIA results equities were trading lower, with the US dollar up slightly, and no big moves in oil. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland why there wasn’t more of aa reaction to events in Eastern Europe, with Ukraine firing US and UK supplied missiles into Russian territory, and the US, Italy, Spain and Greece temporarily closing their embassies in Kyiv, fearing an imminent attack. Meanwhile, UK inflation was a little higher than expected, reducing further the chance of a pre-Christmas cut from the Bank of England. There’s also been a claim that labour data in the UK has significantly overestimated unemployment.  Today, Europe’s consumer confidence numbers, US existing home sales and initial jobless claims, as well as the Philly Fed business outlook. And the RBA’s Michelle Bullock is talking at 7 tonight in Sydney at the Women in Payments Conference. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this discussion, Ray Attrill, NAB’s market economist and strategist, shares his insights on the tense geopolitical landscape and its market implications. He addresses how the recent Russia-Ukraine conflict has stirred investor nerves yet led to a swift return to focusing on earnings reports, particularly from tech giant NVIDIA. Attrill also analyzes the impact of Canadian CPI data on interest rate expectations and discusses the Reserve Bank of Australia's cautious stance on rate cuts amid persistent inflation challenges.

Tuesday 19th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil increased in price today. At first glance you might assume this was a response to the news that President Biden has authorised the use of US weapons to be fired by Ukraine into Russian territory. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says prices really rose in response to the news that the CEO of Liberty Energy - a company focused on fossil fuels - has been nominated as head of the Energy Department. Curious that the prospect of more oil wouldn’t bring prices down. Rodrigo also talks to Phil about European trade and wages data, NZ PSI and PPI numbers from yesterday, US housing and Canadian inflation. And self-drive cars, maybe a step closer. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Taylor Nugent, NAB’s market strategist, shares insights on Jerome Powell's recent comments regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts. He discusses the mixed US data, highlighting strong retail sales and unexpected manufacturing growth. There’s a focus on market reactions and the global implications of these developments. Nugent also touches on the week ahead, suggesting it will be filled with central bank commentary rather than concrete data. This analysis paints a picture of a complex economic landscape where uncertainty looms.

Friday 15th November 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.How different will the world be after another term of Trump as US President? Will he grow the size of the US economy, or will his policies simply add to domestic inflation, meaning higher interest rates for longer. Will he start a global trade war, forcing companies to replicate their production facilities in each local market? Martin Wolf is chief economics commentator at the Financial Times in London. He is not optimistic about the prospects for the world economy. Phil talks to him about the ramifications for regions like Europe and China, where growth prospects are already uncertain. How do they adapt to working with, or without, Fortress America? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.