NAB Morning Call

Friday 4th April 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week TCorp, the NSW Treasury Corporation, put out a report on the evolving financial landscape. They certainly picked an interesting week to launch it. Phil talks to TCorp’s chief economist Brian Redican about how Trump’s approach to trade has created uncertainty and how Australia, like other nations, will be looking for trade partners with the same attitude to free trade. And how, with less trade exposure to the US than the likes of Europe and Canada, and a rich seam of rare earth minerals, could this new trade environment could be beneficial for Australia? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 4th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYou’ll know by now that President Trump’s tariff regime was worse than many had expected, even though Australia got off relatively lightly. You might also be aware that, despite the Presidential claims, the numbers were not based on the tariffs charged by supplier nations, but on a relatively crude formula based on the value of exports to the US against the US balance of trade deficit with that country. That makes it rather problematic for countries to fix-lowering tariffs that might not exist in the first place. But could all this be good for Australia. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton, might we be one part of the world where inflation is contained, and interest rates continue their expected downward trajectory? They also talk about non-farm payrolls, because that’s happening today as well. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 3rd April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump’s announcement in the Rose Garden is bad news for us. For the podcast, that is. It’s just after we publish the final edition at the US market close. So, there’s every chance you’ll know what’s happened before you listen. But what happens next? And, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, there’s more to come from President Trump, plus any retaliatory moves by other nations. Rodrigo and Phil talk about how the markets reacted in the build up to the US close. Larry Summers says the real unknown is how much damage it will do to the US economy and the difficult position it places the Fed in. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 2nd April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets continue to dance around the uncertainty of Donld Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs tomorrow. There was a suggestion in the Wall Street Journal that the President might impose a 20%traiff on all imports, from everywhere, with the White House Press Secretary saying it was her understanding that the tariffs would be applied immediately. The truth is, nobody knows until Donald Trump says it, and even t hen it could change.Data wise we saw a slightly weaker than expected ISM Manufacturing number overnight, with a surprisingly high prices paid component. The JOLTS job openings data also came in weaker than expected. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the numbers, as well as reviewing the RBA decision, statement and press conference yesterday. Eurozone inflation also came down a little.Today, tariffs aside, we get Australian building approvals, and the ADP payrolls numbers for the US, ahead of non-farm payrolls at the end of the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 1st April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGold hit another new high overnight on the back of the continued uncertainty about the shape and extent of President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs tomorrow. He has suggested that it will include all countries, in some form or other. NAB’s Skye Masters says US shares did regain some ground during the session, having fallen sharply after Friday’s weaker than expected US data. Oil is also higher, with the US President threatening secondary tariffs on any country buying oil from Russia. The RBA will keep rates on hold today, and Skye says it’ll be interesting to see if the governor pushes back on current market pricing for another 70bp of cuts this year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 31st March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThis week will almost certainly be dominated by the implementation  of auto tariffs into the US and the announcement of further tariffs on ‘Liberation Day’ on Wednesday. Whether it’s the impact of tariffs or not, consumer spending has slowed and inflation expectations rising in data that was out for the US on Friday. Yet labour data has been holding up so far - not what you would see in a stagflation economy. NAB’s Ray Attrill says we could see a delay in cuts from the Fed. Certainly Mary Daly from the San Francisco Fed was saying on Friday that she’s not comfortable starting any kind of rate path declines right now. The RBA will also stay on hold on Tuesday as they wait for signs that inflation is contained in an increasingly uncertain global economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th March 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.New aged care legislation, which becomes law on July 1st, goes somewhere to fixing the funding crisis that has plagued the aged care industry over recent decades. Residents will need to pay more from their assets and super funds.   Russell Bricknell is CEO of Juniper Aged Care in Western Australia and says it provides a path for future investment, but there’s a large amount of catching up to do. Many facilities have fallen into states of disrepair as operators struggled to remain solvent. But the bigger issue, says Russell, is how future aged care homes win planning consent, and how a workforce is found to staff these new in-demand facilities: two issues that weren’t addressed in the Aged Care Taskforce. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US share market fell only slight today after yesterday’s announcement that cars and car parts will have a 25% import tariff imposed on them, irrespective of where they come from. Interestingly, US manufacturers seem to have been hit hardest on the share market. Generally, though, markets took the news in their stride.  There are several Fed speakers talking today. NNAB’s Taylor Nugent says they’ll remain focussed on inflation expectations, but longer-run market measures haven’t followed survey measures higher for now.  UK Gilt yields rose as investors got to grips with yesterday’s budget, and whether the numbers stack up.  Is a tax rise the likely next step? Today the US PCE read for February, Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, along with consumer spending and saving data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 27th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are clearly not excited about President Trump’s trade agenda. Equities took a hit in this session on news that an announcement on auto tariffs could happen within hours. There have also been rumours about copper could also be targeted, pushing copper prices to fresh highs. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there’s a shift in sentiment emerging from the Fed, with Austin Goolsbee warning of the danger of consumer inflation expectations being mirrored in bond yields, with the potential for interest rates to rise again.  Locally, Australia’s February CPI print came in just as NAB had predicted, which could pave the way for a cut at the next RBA meeting. Labour market data today will provide more detail on the February print. And the UK economy is slowing more, creating no end of challenges for the Chancellor Rachel Reeve. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this conversation, Gavin Friend, an economist at NAB, shares valuable insights into current economic trends. He discusses the recent drop in U.S. consumer confidence, marking a 12-year low, and its chilling effect on markets. The podcast highlights contrasting optimism in Europe, particularly Germany's rising business expectations. Additionally, Gavin breaks down the contentious tariff strategies being debated in the U.S., and explores the implications of potential ceasefires in the Ukraine-Russia conflict on global trade.