NAB Morning Call

Friday 6th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere hasn’t been a lot of love lost between President Xi and President Trump, but a 90 minute phone call might be the start of a journey of reconciliation. But US equity markets seem to be responding more to the end of the Trump-Musk bromance, as threats being made to Tesla’s subsidies and government contracts, helping to pull the Telsa share price down more than 14  percent. The focus today, of course, is on non-farm payrolls. There’s some nervousness around what these numbers will reveal, particularly after the ADP numbers, and the higher-than-expected weekly jobless claims overnight. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks with Phil about all of this, plus the ECB and Australia’s trade and consumption data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 5th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have reacted to a softer than expected US Services ISM, which unexpectedly dipped into contraction territory (just). That’s on top of the JOLTs numbers this week that showed a rise in  unfilled vacancies, weaker manufacturing numbers earlier in the week, and the ADP jobs data overnight showing the lowest number of new hires since the pandemic. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the weaker yields in the US but not in Europe shows where the risks are as the US waits for payrolls on Friday. Phil and Gavin also discuss Australian GDP, the latest Bank of Canada meeting and today’s data releases, which includes the Caixin Services PMI. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Job openings in the U.S. surprise analysts, sparking optimism in equity markets despite global growth concerns. Meanwhile, Europe's inflation declines faster than expected, but it won’t affect upcoming ECB rate cuts. In China, manufacturing shows signs of slowing, contrasting official data. Recent revisions to economic growth forecasts reveal challenges, particularly for Australia, with rising costs and weak public consumption. The bond markets are experiencing mixed signals, yet demand for long-term bonds persists as economic uncertainties loom.

Tuesday 3rd June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump clearly has no intention to roll back on his doubling of steel tariffs on Wednesday. On Truth Social this morning he declared that he didn’t want America’s future to be built with “shoddy steel” from Shanghai, rather than the “strength and pride” of Pittsburgh steel. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says all this uncertainty will slow the economy, evidenced by weakness in the May ISM data for the US. Tonight’s JOLTs data will be particularly interesting. So far employers have been holding off with new hires, whilst employees are reluctant to switch jobs; all driven by uncertainty. The question is, as time goes on, which way does the labour market go? And will we get any hint of it today?   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 2nd June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs NAB’s Taylor Nugent points out, the announcement by President Trump of a doubling in steel tariffs from Wednesday happened after the US market close. OPEC+ also announced an increase in production over the week. So, the week kicks off with more uncertainty. It finishes with the latest US jobs data, will be watching keenly by those fearing a slowdown could be driving the country towards a recession. Meanwhile, there was a slab of data released on Friday, which Phil and Taylr work their way through on today’s Morning Call. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Yan Wang, Chief Emerging Markets & China Strategist at Alpine Macro, breaks down the complex dynamics of US-China trade relations. She believes that the worst of the tariff dispute may be over, with China needing to achieve its 5% growth target. Yan explains how Trump might accommodate some of China's economic demands, suggesting a path forward with less volatility. She also discusses the yuan's fluctuations, the evolving trade strategies, and Australia's crucial role in this intricate economic landscape.

Friday 30th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US Appeals Cout has determined that Trump’s tariffs can stay, for now, but it remains a battle the President will have to fight. Kit seems markets had assumed he’d find a way to impose his tariffs anyway otherwise we would have seen more significant market moves. Th emain concern within the US seems to be how much of the new tax cuts assumed a high level of tariff revenue to compensate for the deficit. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the response, along with softer US data overnight, and to look ahead to a deluge of data out today and tonight, including retail sales for Australian and Japan, housing credit and building approvals at home, the US Core PCE and personal income and spending data, along with Canada’s GDP and China’s PMIs.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 29th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNVIDIA results show the chip manufacturer has beaten estimates on revenue, but has fallen behind on gross margin and EPS. Nonetheless, their share price was initially up in after-hours trade. It comes after a session that saw sharp falls in US and European equities. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to discuss the RBNZ cuts, another weak long-dated bond auction, the FOMC minutes (just out) and yesterday’s Australian CPI report. Plus, some interesting observations from the Australian treasury Secretary last night. And confirmation of Trump’s hit-big then negotiate approach, that could still see us all left with a residual 10% tariff, at best. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 28th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIn the US investors left for the long weekend with the sudden news of a major tariff hike on European goods just a week away. They were back at their desks on Tuesday morning with the news that that wasn’t happening - not this week anyway. The result has been a jump in US shares, coinciding with the Conference board survey also jumping back from the postponement of Liberation Day tariffs. Also today, NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains why we’ve seen a 19bp drop in 30 year Japanese yields. He also previews today’s CPI figures for Australia and the priced-in 25bp cut from the RBNZ today. But what next? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 27th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEuropean equities rose on Monday on the back of the news that the imposition of higher tariffs on Europe have been pushed back a month. Does that also mean the result will be lower than the threatened 50 percent? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about how the Trump technique might start to lose some of its impact as politicians and markets get used to the shock and awe approach. And ECB chief Christine Lagarde didn’t hold back in a speech on Monday talking about how “multilateral cooperation is being replaced by zero-sum thinking and bilateral power plays”. Meanwhile, there’s been another small fall in the US dollar, and a rise in the CNY and the Aussie touching its highest level for the year to date. Today the US and UK return from holidays, with consumer confidence data and durable goods orders for the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.