NAB Morning Call Job openings up, but growth forecasts down (globally and at home)
Jun 3, 2025
Job openings in the U.S. surprise analysts, sparking optimism in equity markets despite global growth concerns. Meanwhile, Europe's inflation declines faster than expected, but it won’t affect upcoming ECB rate cuts. In China, manufacturing shows signs of slowing, contrasting official data. Recent revisions to economic growth forecasts reveal challenges, particularly for Australia, with rising costs and weak public consumption. The bond markets are experiencing mixed signals, yet demand for long-term bonds persists as economic uncertainties loom.
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US Job Openings Surprise Market
- US job openings rose unexpectedly to 7.39 million in April, against forecasts of a fall.
- This surprise boosted US equity markets despite cautious openings from revised global growth forecasts.
Mixed US Labor Market Signals
- Despite a strong headline in the JOLTS report, the labor market shows mixed signals with some layoffs rising.
- The data suggests a cooling labor market, reducing immediate Fed rate cut expectations.
Australia Growth Forecast Downgraded
- NAB and OECD revised Australia's growth forecasts down due to weaker public consumption and lowered public demand.
- The forecast cut implies slower growth in Australia than the RBA predicted earlier this year.