IBF On Demand

Sponsored by Arkieva, your One-Plan S&OP software. Find out about Arkieva's approach to demand planning:Benchmark your company's S&OP maturity with IBF's free-to-use S&OP maturity model. Get recommendations to improve specific areas of your process and progress to the next stage in your S&OP evolution. Try it now: https://bit.ly/33BiLSEI talk to demand planning expert and long-time contributor to IBF's publications, Daniel Fitzpatrick. He shares how he channels his inner Bob Ross to get a handle on the art aspect of demand planning, and combining it with the science to approach demand planning as a 'craft'. Every week he gets out of the office and into stores to understand the the non-quantitative assumptions to place the numbers in context and to feed back to the sales team. Remember that as one thing becomes commoditized (the science/analytics), something else becomes a premium, and that is the art side of our profession.02:10 Art and science in demand planning04:25 Introducing Daniel Fitzpatrick06:16 Why demand planners should get out of the office and into store locations10:00 Making assumptions about competing products and how that impacts forecasts11:00 Is your product even on the shelf?14:00 Demand Planners and stores often work to different timescales 15:21 Taking ownership of your products16:52 Incorporating observations at stores into your forecasting 19:00 Challenging salespeople on their assumptions21:34 Art and science when it comes to Covid-1928:25 Why the art element is crucial as we move into the predictive analytics ageSHOW LESSSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand sponsored by Arkieva. Learn about Swiftcast, Machine Learning Enabled Demand Forecasting from Arkieva: http://bit.ly/swifcastIBF's industry-leading S&OP Assessments assess your company's maturity level and provide tailor-made recommendations to improve specific areas -  all designed to take you to the next level in your S&OP evolution. Click here for more information: https://bit.ly/3d58dMTWhat is predictive analytics and how does it work? I bring in Eric Siegel to help answer that question because two Eric's are better than one! He is author of the bestseller, 'Predictive Analytics, The Power To Predict Who Will Click, Buy Lie Or Die', former Columbia University professor, founder of Predictive Analytics World, and rapper (seriously!). Demand planning will become the home of predictive analytics, so let's get ready for it now.05:00 What is predictive analytics?06:00 The overlap between forecasting and predictive analytics.07:13 Why are predictive and analytics revolutionizing business? 09:20 Is predictive analytics as complicated as it sounds?11:30 How machine learning works.13:25 Logistic regression.15:33 Big Data and training data.15:58 Finding the right predictive model.20:20 Ensemble models and the wisdom of averages.23:10 Uplift modeling/persuasion modeling to create the future.27:15 How to gain knowledge in predictive analytics.33:00 My new book on predictive analytics (coming soon!).34:35 Arkieva's Swiftcast.Support the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand sponsored by Arkieva. Learn about Swiftcast, Machine Learning Enabled Demand Forecasting from Arkieva: http://bit.ly/swifcast IBF's industry-leading S&OP Assessments assess your company's maturity level and provide tailor-made recommendations to improve specific areas -  all designed to take you to the next level in your S&OP evolution. Click here for more information: https://bit.ly/3d58dMTYou and I know the value of demand planning and predictive analytics but does anybody else? Getting the resources you need to build an effective demand planning function is difficult and it won't happen unless you go after it. And that means making sure everybody knows the value it brings to senior leaders and other departments. Here's how to get the engagement, support and trust you need for your demand planning and analytics function to succeed.03.25: how to get engagement for demand planning06:35 Learn others languages, especially that of executives so they understand what you're saying.09:55 Educating others about demand planning so they see the value.12:00 Building your demand planning brand.14:05 Find a sponsor, champion and mentor to break down barriers and be your spokesperson. 16:25: Be a salesman because they won't come to you.24:55 You don't always get what what you want and that's OK.Check out Arkieva at www.arkieva.comCheck out IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.comSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

Sponsored by Arkieva, your One-Plan S&OP software. Find our more about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com IBF's industry-leading S&OP Assessments assess your company's maturity level and provide tailor-made recommendations to improve specific areas -  all designed to take you to the next level in your S&OP evolution. Click here for more information: https://bit.ly/3d58dMTI interview Bram Desmet, author of 'Supply Chain Strategy And Financial Metrics', the book every executive and CEO should read! It deals with balancing the supply chain triangle of service, cost and cash and how your product strategy directly impacts how this triangle is balanced. Different strategies have different levels of complexity which come with different levels of cost, which drives different levels of inventory, and different levels of investment in fixed assets. 05:40 How your product strategy defines product complexity, inventory and cash flow09:50 Balancing the service, cost and cash triangle11:00 Why Lego has very poor inventory turns and why that isn't a problem12:40 How strategy impacts how your balance the service, cost and cash triangle14:35 EBITDA, days of inventory and working capital17:50 Understanding ROI for capital deployed with ROCE20:45 Rebalancing the triangle during Covid-1925:00 How forecast accuracy impacts the service, cost and cash triangle30:30 My experience of different company strategies and how they impact inventory management and service levelsCheck out Arkieva at www.arkieva.comCheck out IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.comSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand, sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to S&OP here: https://bit.ly/improving-sop-performanceSee how IBF's S&OP assessments help your company get started in S&OP or improve existing processes with industry-leading bench-marking and recommendations: https://bit.ly/3d58dMTWhat exactly are the new 5 steps in S&OP for 2020? I interview demand planning guru and self-proclaimed S&OP nerd Pat Bower. Sr. Director Global Supply Chain Planning & Customer Service at Combe Inc. We discuss what best in class S&OP looks like, what process steps you need and how to get started with your S&OP process. 04:00 Special guest Pat Bower, self-proclaimed S&OP nerd and demand planning leader05:35 How many steps we need in an S&OP process10:16 Is the traditional 5 step process from the 1990's still viable?12:20 Best practices for data gathering and the Product Review14:40 Why SKUs are growing and inventory turns look unusual compared to the past16:40 What needs to lie within S&OP and what lies outside it?23:40 Looping S&OP back to feed functional and operational systems25:10 Newcomers! Start with demand then move to supply, and don't try to do all steps at once28:05 Three golden rules to remember about S&OP 33:50 How IBF's S&OP and assessments get your company on the path to S&OP successFind out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.comFind out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.comSHOW LESSSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

Sponsored by Arkieva, your one plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to S&OP here: https://bit.ly/improving-sop-performanceRight now nearly half of companies have abandoned S&OP and moved to S&OE (Sales & Operations Execution) to help manage the current demand disruptions. But is it a good idea, and what does a good S&OE process look like? I invited S&OP expert Jeff Baker to reveal best practices and how S&OP and S&OE can work together to both "firefight" the short term demand volatility while managing the longer term strategy.02:58 46% of companies are on a weekly S&OP cycle. Is that a good idea?05:11 S&OP expert Jeff Baker explains what S&OE is09:24 Differences between S&OP & S&OE10:40 What does a weekly S&OP process look like?12:54 What are the inputs into the S&OE meeting?18:15 Point of Sale data for demand sensing19:49 Time fences and lead time to set your S&OP meeting cadence21:06 Overview of S&OE21:40 Should you choose either S&OP or S&OE or have both?25:20 Should you start with S&OP or S&OE?28:27 Why S&OP fails29:05 The power of communication, collaboration and transparency during times of difficultyFind out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.comFind out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.comSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand episode 10 sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: https://bit.ly/forecast-modelingBecome an IBF member here: https://bit.ly/ibf-membershipI get on my soap box and explain why that statement is wrong and how you can, in fact, be 100% right. I also discuss why moving away from just a point forecast to forecast ranges (and getting comfortable with uncertainty) provides so much more value to decision makers. By changing our mindset, we can reveal the real value lying in variability. After all, our role is not to be precise, but to provide useful insights. 02:00 IBF membership - the demand planning club that helps your career03:15 Why saying "forecasts are always wrong" harms us and our companies05:28 Your job is not about numbers, but about insights08:25 Getting comfortable with ambiguity 10:10  Becoming probabilistic thinkers - forecasting ranges vs. single numbers14:14 Measuring forecast error and my favorite KPI15:18 The valuable information lying in uncertainty and variability that decision makers need to know21:15 Providing the right forecast range with cones of uncertainty 23:05 Coefficient of Variation (CoV) and Demand Variation Index (DVI)27:18 Using the right KPIs to measure the full spectrum of uncertainty30:18 The goal is not to be precise but to provide useful insights Article on eScore, a measurement of probabilistic forecast performance that measures error, range and probability all in one formula: https://demand-planning.com/2018/08/16/introducing-escore-simplified-mape-for-todays-business/Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.comFind out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.comSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand Episode 9 (28.6.20) Sponsored by Arkieva, your one plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to demand planning here: https://arkieva.com/software/demand-planning/Learn about IBF 's world-leading consulting services to build or transform demand planning here: https://bit.ly/3d58dMTData Scientists Suck At Demand Planning! Or do they? Can they learn the required skills? Conversely, can demand planners learn new data science skills? I interview author of 'Data Science For Supply Chain Forecast', Nicholas Vandeput, and examine the differences and similarities between data scientists and demand planners, and how we need to learn from each other.02:12 Forecast accuracy by university degree04:30 Data scientists make horrible demand planners06:16 Mindset of data scientists07:35 Experimenting in data science12:55 Differences between data scientist and demand planning roles14:04 Will data scientists do the modeling then hand over to a demand planner?16:45 Should we get data scientists into demand planning, or do we keep them as separate roles?17:00 Human judgement, collaboration and data science20:10 Will data science be part of supply chain or will demand planning be a data science function?20:25 The value if an independent analytics function25:48 The importance of knowing new models and techniques 29:13 Demand planners need to adapt34:50 IBF maturity assessments to establish forecasting and analytics functions35:19 The ultimate goal of a centralized planning and data scientist function Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.comFind out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.comSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

This podcast discusses the importance of demand planning in today's business climate, the high salaries available in the field, and the key skills needed for success. It highlights the evolving role of demand planning and the increasing priority placed on forecasting by CEOs. The podcast also explores the significance of passion and interest in achieving career success, as well as the resources and community available to support those interested in demand planning careers.

07:28 What supply planners do10:00 The central plan and changing culture13:25 One number forecasts vs. one set of assumptions18:23 Time horizons in supply planning21:21 Supply planning lead times and frozen zones27:00 Understanding the fundamentals of the planning process30:48 Recommendations to build bridges with supply planningFind out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.comFind out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.comSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org