IBF On Demand

IBF on Demand episode 10 sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: https://bit.ly/forecast-modelingBecome an IBF member here: https://bit.ly/ibf-membershipI get on my soap box and explain why that statement is wrong and how you can, in fact, be 100% right. I also discuss why moving away from just a point forecast to forecast ranges (and getting comfortable with uncertainty) provides so much more value to decision makers. By changing our mindset, we can reveal the real value lying in variability. After all, our role is not to be precise, but to provide useful insights. 02:00 IBF membership - the demand planning club that helps your career03:15 Why saying "forecasts are always wrong" harms us and our companies05:28 Your job is not about numbers, but about insights08:25 Getting comfortable with ambiguity 10:10  Becoming probabilistic thinkers - forecasting ranges vs. single numbers14:14 Measuring forecast error and my favorite KPI15:18 The valuable information lying in uncertainty and variability that decision makers need to know21:15 Providing the right forecast range with cones of uncertainty 23:05 Coefficient of Variation (CoV) and Demand Variation Index (DVI)27:18 Using the right KPIs to measure the full spectrum of uncertainty30:18 The goal is not to be precise but to provide useful insights Article on eScore, a measurement of probabilistic forecast performance that measures error, range and probability all in one formula: https://demand-planning.com/2018/08/16/introducing-escore-simplified-mape-for-todays-business/Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.comFind out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.comSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand Episode 9 (28.6.20) Sponsored by Arkieva, your one plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to demand planning here: https://arkieva.com/software/demand-planning/Learn about IBF 's world-leading consulting services to build or transform demand planning here: https://bit.ly/3d58dMTData Scientists Suck At Demand Planning! Or do they? Can they learn the required skills? Conversely, can demand planners learn new data science skills? I interview author of 'Data Science For Supply Chain Forecast', Nicholas Vandeput, and examine the differences and similarities between data scientists and demand planners, and how we need to learn from each other.02:12 Forecast accuracy by university degree04:30 Data scientists make horrible demand planners06:16 Mindset of data scientists07:35 Experimenting in data science12:55 Differences between data scientist and demand planning roles14:04 Will data scientists do the modeling then hand over to a demand planner?16:45 Should we get data scientists into demand planning, or do we keep them as separate roles?17:00 Human judgement, collaboration and data science20:10 Will data science be part of supply chain or will demand planning be a data science function?20:25 The value if an independent analytics function25:48 The importance of knowing new models and techniques 29:13 Demand planners need to adapt34:50 IBF maturity assessments to establish forecasting and analytics functions35:19 The ultimate goal of a centralized planning and data scientist function Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.comFind out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.comSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

This podcast discusses the importance of demand planning in today's business climate, the high salaries available in the field, and the key skills needed for success. It highlights the evolving role of demand planning and the increasing priority placed on forecasting by CEOs. The podcast also explores the significance of passion and interest in achieving career success, as well as the resources and community available to support those interested in demand planning careers.

07:28 What supply planners do10:00 The central plan and changing culture13:25 One number forecasts vs. one set of assumptions18:23 Time horizons in supply planning21:21 Supply planning lead times and frozen zones27:00 Understanding the fundamentals of the planning process30:48 Recommendations to build bridges with supply planningFind out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.comFind out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.comSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand Episode 6 (19.5.20) Sponsored by Arkieva, your one plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to demand planning here: https://bit.ly/demand-management-reso...Here I discuss Forecast Value Added (FVA) with special guest Sara Park, Vice President, Exec S&OP, Forecasting COE and Supply Chain Planning at The Coca-Cola Company. We discuss how to use FVA to determine which forecasting models, inputs, or activities are either adding value or are actually making it worse. This technique can be game-changer for your forecast accuracy.08:00 Collaborating with other functions to get the inputs that are either helping or hurting 12:15 Knowing which functions help or hurt forecast accuracy14:55 FVA at the item level16:00 Getting started with FVA17:28  FVA for mature organizations19:19  What's a good FVA percentage?22:50 Why FVA is better than MPE and MAPE26:54 5 best practices when using FVAUseful article on FVA: https://demand-planning.com/2018/02/1...Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.comFind out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.comSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand Episode 5: Is S&OP Dead & What Would Replace It?Sponsored by Arkieva, your one plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to S&OP here: https://bit.ly/demand-planning-perfor....S&OP isn't adding value for most companies, failing to improve key KPIs like days of inventory or customer service. Eric Wilson discusses whether this 32 year old process is fit or for purpose and whether it should be killed off, or adapted and saved. He presents the 5 tenets off effective S&OP that allow to it become a true business-wide process. 01:15 S&OP is failing in key KPIs05:00 What S&OP needs to do08:27 Turning S&OP into a business process12:23 S&OP Strategy for decision making 16:43 Getting people involved and cross functional culture17:48 Metrics to track effectiveness of S&OP 23:38 Enabling S&OP with technologyRead about Decision Mapping: https://bit.ly/2yyLxpZ-decision-mappingS&OP Research Report: https://bit.ly/2yoeftV-SOP-research-r...Bram Desmet's book: Supply Chain Strategy and Financial Metrics: The Supply Chain Triangle Of Service, Cost And CashFind out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.comFind out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.comSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

Over 70% of predictive analytics implementation initiatives fail. Eric Wilson CPF and special guest, Misty Doan CPF, dive into how to make digital transformation work. Hear how Misty achieved a 26% improvement in forecast accuracy after 18 months, reduced excess inventory, increased fill rates by 10%, and reduced premium freight costs and fines by 17%. And hear Eric's 5 tips for digital transformation success.Useful article on change management: www.demand-planning.com/2018/01/25/want-to-implement-sop-first-you-must-become-an-architect-of-change/Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.comFind out more about Arkieva at www.arkieva.comSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand Episode 3 (3.4.20) Sponsored by Arkieva. Eric talks to special guest, demand planning expert Andrew Schneider ACPF, to answer a fan question about segmentation and clustering. They explore multidimensional segmentation of items, going beyond standard Pareto distribution to find hidden correlations and reveal which items you need to prioritize. Check us out at ibf.org and at www.demand-planning.comCheck out our sponsor at www.arkieva.comSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand Episode 2 (14.3.20). Learn about Arkieva's What-if Scenario Planning: bit.ly/what-if-planning"The world is coming to an end, we're all going to die, and you didn't get that forecast right." How do you forecast black swan events like Coronavirus? Short answer is you don't because if you could predict them, they wouldn't be black swan events. But what we do as demand planners when they happen really matters.  Check us out at ibf.org and at www.demand-planning.comSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand Episode 1 (4.3.20) Learn about AI-driven forecasting with Arkieva: bit.ly/smart-forecast-aiWelcome to the very first episode of IBF On Demand. In this episode, I discuss the impact of AI and machine learning on demand planning and forecasting. I also discuss Big Data and the challenges and opportunities it presents, and how you can survive and thrive in this new era.Check us out at www.ibf.org and at www.demand-planning.comCheck out our sponsor at arkieva.comSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org