Stop Saying Forecasts Are Always Wrong! | Embracing Uncertainty & Range Forecasts

IBF on Demand episode 10 sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: https://bit.ly/forecast-modeling

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I get on my soap box and explain why that statement is wrong and how you can, in fact, be 100% right. I also discuss why moving away from just a point forecast to forecast ranges (and getting comfortable with uncertainty) provides so much more value to decision makers. By changing our mindset, we can reveal the real value lying in variability. After all, our role is not to be precise, but to provide useful insights. 

02:00 IBF membership - the demand planning club that helps your career
03:15 Why saying "forecasts are always wrong" harms us and our companies
05:28 Your job is not about numbers, but about insights
08:25 Getting comfortable with ambiguity 
10:10  Becoming probabilistic thinkers - forecasting ranges vs. single numbers
14:14 Measuring forecast error and my favorite KPI
15:18 The valuable information lying in uncertainty and variability that decision makers need to know
21:15 Providing the right forecast range with cones of uncertainty 
23:05 Coefficient of Variation (CoV) and Demand Variation Index (DVI)
27:18 Using the right KPIs to measure the full spectrum of uncertainty
30:18 The goal is not to be precise but to provide useful insights 

Article on eScore, a measurement of probabilistic forecast performance that measures error, range and probability all in one formula: https://demand-planning.com/2018/08/16/introducing-escore-simplified-mape-for-todays-business/

Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com

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