Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss recent Middle East tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, the surprisingly minimal market reaction despite high geopolitical stakes, and insights into historical parallels and fiscal spending impacts on stock markets. They also cover recent criticisms of Fed Chair Jerome Powell by President Trump and debate the Fed's current policy paralysis amid uncertainty about inflation, unemployment, and economic growth. Key Takeaways Middle East Tensions and Market Response:The U.S. recently attacked suspected nuclear sites in Iran, and despite immediate fears, the S&P 500 rallied over 1%, and oil prices sharply reversed after an initial spike—down nearly 14% in one day, one of the largest reversals in history.Geopolitical Patterns and Historical Context:The hosts point out historical examples, such as World War I and the Iraq War, where war-driven fiscal spending and deficit growth actually boosted stock markets significantly. Economic and Fiscal Implications of Conflict:Wars often lead to increased defense and deficit spending, which, despite negative human impacts, can boost corporate profits and stock markets, as seen historically (e.g., Iraq War 2003).President Trump's Criticism of Jerome Powell and Fed Policy:President Trump publicly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates, calling Powell a "numbskull" and suggesting lower rates would save trillions for the U.S.Fed's Policy Paralysis Amid Uncertainty:The Fed faces conflicting economic signals: higher projected inflation (due partly to tariffs), rising unemployment, and slowing growth, resulting in policy paralysis. Sonu criticized Powell’s comments claiming labor market strength, pointing to rising unemployment claims and slowing payrolls as clear signs of labor market weakness.Odds of Fed Rate Cuts Increasing:Market-implied probabilities show a significant rise in expectations for a rate cut by September 2025, largely driven by recent sharp declines in oil prices.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #MiddleEastTensions #StockMarketReaction #IranConflict #FiscalSpending #JeromePowell #FedPolicy #TrumpVsPowell #InterestRates #EconomicUncertainty #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by financial journalist and TKer founder and editor Sam Ro. Together, they cover Sam’s background, his curated newsletter approach, emerging data-quality issues at the BLS, and why human judgment still matters in the age of AI.Key TakeawaysWhat Sam Ro Actually Does All Day Sam is the founder and editor of TKer (pronounced ticker), a daily financial newsletter. He previously led markets coverage at Business Insider and was managing editor at Yahoo Finance. His role now is synthesizing market data and macro trends into clear, actionable insights for readers — many of whom are financial advisors.The Market Goes Up—Until It Doesn’t Sam chose the slogan “The stock market usually goes up” for his newsletter because, well, the market usually goes up. But, as Sam cautions, it’s important for investors to be prepared for downturns, or they can get badly dinged in the short term.Parsing the Data The group discusses a recent announcement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics about collecting less data than before, and how budget cuts and staffing issues at the bureau could lead to less accurate data collection in economic surveys like CPI and employment reports.More Than Just Statistics Sam, who majored in religion in college, discusses the notion that data only goes so far in predicting the markets. Models can’t predict everything, and sometimes you just need to embrace uncertainty and have a bit of faith that the markets will sort themselves out over time.AI Can’t Replace Human JudgmentWhile AI chatbots now summarize reports faster—and sometimes more eloquently—than humans, Sam stresses that interpreting nuance and making editorial decisions remain human domains. Connect with Ryan:•       LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick•       X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:•       LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese•       X: @sonusvargheseConnect with Sam:·      https://www.tker.co/·      X: @SamRo ·      LinkedIn: sammyroQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #SamRo #TickerNewsletter #MarketFlows #StockMarket #InvestorDiscipline #FinancialMedia #Macroeconomics #FinancialPlanning #MarketInsights #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, unpack the political feud between Donald Trump and Elon Musk — and what it signals for markets, sentiment, and investor behavior.But this episode covers more than just political drama: Ryan and Sonu break down what recent data says about inflation, the labor market, and Federal Reserve policy, while stressing the importance of not overreacting to headlines.Key TakeawaysTheater Meets Market Implications The Trump-Musk spat included insults, accusations, and the threat of government contract cancellations. Ryan and Sonu dig into how this narrative dominated headlines and its potential impact on investor sentiment.Markets Rally Despite the Drama Despite political noise, equity markets have remained resilient. The S&P 500 has posted strong returns since April lows, reflecting underlying market strength.Economic Data Is Mixed, Not Recessionary While headlines emphasize slowing job growth and sticky inflation, Ryan and Sonu stress that the broader picture doesn’t scream recession. Job openings remain high, unemployment is low, and wages continue to rise.Fed Remains Cautious While job growth is slowing and inflation still sticky, the Fed is likely to keep interest rates paused for the foreseeable future—though a drop in inflation could trigger a reexamination.Watch Market Breadth and Participation Rather than obsess over megacap tech stocks, the hosts urge listeners to track participation across sectors and in global markets. Broader market strength is a bullish sign that shouldn't be ignored. Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #LaborMarket #JobsReport #FederalReserve #InterestRates #EconomicUpdate #FinancialPlanning #WageGrowth #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #StockMarket #MacroTrends 

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the recent market rally and the surprisingly solid economic data that continues to confound many bearish predictions. From stock performance and inflation trends to the latest tariff drama, Ryan and Sonu break down what they believe is actually happening beneath the market’s surface.Key TakeawaysMarkets Continue to Surprise on the Upside After a brief dip in April, stocks bounced back strong in May, and with only one down week out of the last six, the S&P 500 is up 1.1% YTD.Tariff Drama ContinuesA court ruling struck down President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, though they remain in place for now. Ryan and Sonu dive into the latest drama surrounding tariffs, as well as the TACO trends that’s bolstered many investors.Inflation Is Cooling in Key Areas Goods prices are down, shelter inflation is slowing, and real-time data suggests CPI and PCE will continue to moderate—supporting the idea that the inflation spike is behind us.No Sign of a Recession With inflation cooling and the labor market holding strong, odds of recession have retreated from what we saw earlier in the year.Financial Media Still Loves the Bear Case Ryan and Sonu note how recession headlines haven’t caught up with the data. Fear sells, but facts are more bullish than many want to admit. Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #StockMarket #EconomicUpdate #JobsReport #FedPolicy #InflationTrends #RecessionDebate #BullMarket #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #MarketRally #FinancialPodcast #InvestmentInsights #S&P500 #HousingMarket #LaborMarket

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome tech analyst Dan Ives, Managing Director at Wedbush, to discuss the state of AI, the future of autonomous technologies, China-U.S. relations in tech, and investment opportunities beyond the usual headlines.Broadcasting from Carson's 2025 Spring Partner Summit in Omaha, this conversation blends covers everything from Tesla and Palantir to Microsoft's AI momentum and more.Key TakeawaysTesla Is Not Just a Car Company: Dan emphasized that Tesla should be valued as a disruptive AI and robotics company, not merely an automaker. Autonomous robotics are seen as a core driver of its future valuation.AI Party Is Just Getting Started: We're still in the early innings of the AI revolution—around “10:30 p.m.” on an all-night timeline, according to Dan. He likens skeptics to party-poopers who will wish they had joined once the sun comes up.China Cannot Be Decoupled: Efforts to cut ties with China in tech manufacturing are unrealistic, says Dan. The U.S. relies heavily on Chinese infrastructure, and disrupting this would have broad economic consequences.Apple as the AI Highway: While Apple may have lagged in AI innovation early on, Dan believes it will become the dominant platform for consumer AI applications thanks to its vast device ecosystem and installed base.Microsoft's Untapped AI Monetization: Despite a recent lull in stock performance, Dan sees Microsoft as massively underappreciated in its AI capabilities, especially within its enterprise customer base.Google (Alphabet) Is Underloved: Alphabet is currently the most underestimated of the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks, particularly due to overstated concerns about search being disrupted by AI.Palantir’s Long-Term Role: Dan projects Palantir as a trillion-dollar company in the making, thanks to its growing role in enterprise and sovereign AI applications.AI Stocks Beyond the Headlines: Emerging names like Pegasystems, SoundHound, Veronis, and CyberArk are cited as under-the-radar plays in the AI boom, especially in areas like cybersecurity and data infrastructure.Autonomous + Robotics = Game Changer: Dan envisions a near-future where humanoid robots under $20,000 become household norms—transforming labor, transportation, and daily life.Bitcoin’s Role in Tech: Bitcoin’s institutional adoption is growing, and Dan sees it as a risk-on asset with increasing relevance, especially in a deregulated environment. Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrick Connect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Connect with Dan:• LinkedIn: Daniel Ives• X: @DivesTech Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#FactsVsFeelings #DanIves #AIRevolution #TeslaAI #MicrosoftAI #TechInvesting #AutonomousFuture #InnovationEconomy #NVIDIA #Palantir #CryptoAndTech #ChinaUSRelations #BigTech #FutureOfWork #CarsonPartners #FinancialPodcast 

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by returning guest Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director of Employ America, as they dive deep into macroeconomic dynamics, market reactions, and policy shifts.Together, they examine inflation metrics, shifting recession probabilities, the role of tariffs, and the evolving landscape of productivity and AI-related capital investment. Skanda brings grounded clarity on interpreting economic data without succumbing to noise or sensationalism, offering practical insights for advisors and investors alike.Key Takeaways:PCE vs CPI for Tracking Inflation: CPI gets more attention due to its simplicity and timing, but the Fed prioritizes PCE. Skanda emphasizes that CPI may be better for gauging immediate market sentiment, while PCE is conceptually stronger for long-term economic trends.Macro Noise & Recession Probability: Macroeconomic forecasting in today’s environment is fraught with uncertainty. Constant updates from institutions and media (e.g., fluctuating recession odds) highlight the need for discipline in economic modeling and scenario planning.Economic Resilience Remains Strong: Despite shocks from trade policies and tariffs, data like payroll growth and strong consumer balance sheets suggest the U.S. economy remains fundamentally sound.Tariff Impacts on Inflation and Growth: Tariffs increase costs that are typically passed through to businesses and consumers; however, much depends on the magnitude. Unilateral trade policies introduce substantial risk and uncertainty for exporters and investors.AI-Driven Productivity Is Real — But Vulnerable: Capital expenditures in Q1 were strongly influenced by AI infrastructure investments. While this is currently a major tailwind for GDP and productivity, overreliance on one sector (like tech) can create future vulnerabilities if momentum shifts.Why Lower Oil Prices Haven’t Translated to Relief at the Pump Oil prices are down, but gas prices haven’t followed suit. Sonu dove into that topic in his recent blog: https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/why-lower-oil-prices-havent-translated-to-relief-at-the-pump/Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrick Connect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Connect with Skanda:• X: @IrvingSwisher Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #Macroeconomics #Inflation #CPI #PCE #RecessionWatch #EconomicForecast #AIInvestment #ProductivityGrowth #Tariffs #FinancialMarkets #EmployAmerica #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #SkandaAmarnath

The hosts dive into a surprising market rally following a U.S.-China tariff ceasefire that sparked bullish momentum. They discuss trade negotiations marked by a 90-day pause and the implications for investors. The conversation also highlights historic patterns indicating strong potential market returns and reflects on the Fed’s upcoming moves. Amidst the serious talk, lighter moments shine through, balancing family stories with financial insights. Overall, optimism reigns as the economy shows signs of recovery and stabilization.

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the messy, muddy Q1 GDP report and break down why the headline number might be misleading. They also explain the disconnect between public sentiment and actual economic data, touch on Warren Buffett’s retirement announcement, set expectations for the Fed’s next move, and more.Key Takeaways:GDP Looks Weak at First Glance—But Isn't: GDP for Q1 came in negative for the first time in three years, but parsing the data shows there are still plenty of signals—though also plenty of uncertainty.A Fond Farewell: Ryan and Sonu reflect on Warren Buffett’s remarkable career after his announcement over the weekend that he’d be stepping away from Berkshire Hathaway.Consumer Spending Still Strong: Consumer spending has remained high even amid tariff uncertainty, but auto sales have been a sign of weakness.Fed Uncertainty: Though it’s still unclear when or if the Fed might cut rates, we should get some clarity this week.Earnings Beat Expectations: Q1 earnings came in ahead of expectations, buoying the market during an uncertain time.Strong Stocks: The market ended April and opened May with a nine-day winning streak, a sign of resilience amid tariff uncertainty. Connect with Ryan:•       LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick•       X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:•       LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese•       X: @sonusvargheseQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com  #FactsVsFeelings #GDPGrowth #ConsumerSpending #ImmigrationEconomics #MarketOutlook #FedPolicy #StockMarketUpdate #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #EconomicReality #RecessionMyth #StagflationDebunked

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dissect the market’s strong rally amid tariff turmoil and examine whether policy pullbacks from Washington are signaling a win for the stock market.The duo also dives into technical indicators, sentiment extremes, earnings expectations, and the broader economic implications of continued trade tensions with China. Plus, a golden discussion — literally — about gold’s recent surge and what it might mean for investors.Key Takeaways:Markets vs. TariffsPolicy SensitivityMarket Breadth & TechnicalsNear Bear MarketsTrade Impact LagFed & Policy OutlookEarnings ExpectationsSentiment ExtremesGold SurgeConnect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#StockMarket #Tariffs #MarketUpdate #EconomicOutlook #InvestorSentiment #S&P500 #Gold #MarketRally #FederalReserve #EarningsSeason #FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #FinancialPodcast

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by Cathie Wood of Ark Invest to unpack the state of innovation in finance, the market’s reaction to tariffs, and the evolving role of AI, Bitcoin, and government in shaping the future economy.Together, they explore whether we are entering a recession or exiting one, and how long-term investors can cut through short-term volatility. Cathie also shares her thoughts on manufacturing reshoring, AI’s role in diagnostics and automation, OpenAI’s dominance, and why Bitcoin might just be getting started. Key Takeaways:Market headwinds are turning into tailwindsRisk of a recession is on the riseTariff chaos could be offset some by tax cuts and deregulationAI will catalyze every sectorBitcoin and gold can be hedges against market volatility, but there’s still uncertaintyManufacturing is coming back to the U.S., but with more automationThe government’s role in innovation is evolving as the private sector progressesConnect with Cathie:•       X: @cathiedwoodConnect with Ryan:•       LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick•       X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:•       LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese•       X: @sonusvarghe Relevant Hashtags:#CathieWood #ARKInvest #Bitcoin #AI #Tariffs #Innovation #StockMarket #Recession #FactsVsFeelings #TechnologyInvesting #CarsonGroup #FinancialPodcast #OpenAI #Automation #EconomicOutlook #RollingRecession #Reshoring #DigitalAssets #Investing