Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

In this week’s episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese dig into the market’s latest shift toward a potential economic reacceleration, looking at rising global yields, what the renewed steepening of the yield curve may signal, and how broadening market leadership is shaping their outlook. They go through the rebound in tech, the breakout in commodities, stubborn inflation pressures, and the mixed but still-stable labor market. With the Fed’s next move approaching, Ryan and Sonu discuss what policymakers may be forced to confront as growth picks up and investors try to position through the final weeks of the year.Key Takeaways:• Global yields are climbing: The move appears driven more by improving growth expectations than by renewed inflation fears.• The yield curve is steepening: Long-term rates are rising faster than short-term ones, signaling firmer economic momentum.• Market leadership is broadening: Tech is rebounding while financials, industrials, and small caps are showing notable strength.• Commodities are breaking out: A wide range of materials is moving higher, hinting at early reflation even without oil participating.• Inflation is easing but still sticky: Price pressures remain above the Fed’s comfort zone as it prepares for additional rate cuts.Jump to:0:00 – Reacceleration & Markets Setup4:55 – Global Yields, Carry Trade & Yield Curve Shifts9:13 – Bear vs Bull Steepener Explained16:40 – Tech’s Streak, Market Breadth & Sector Rotation24:00 – Commodities Breakout & Late-Cycle Signals32:20 – Inflation pressures: PCE, Services & Risks38:30 – Fed Cuts, Labor Market Trends & Income StrengthConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @SonuVargheseQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the sharp late-November market swings, why December historically favors gains, and how shifting Fed expectations have driven sentiment. They break down sector rotation, the surprising divergence between crypto and junk tech, the return of market breadth, and the growing possibility of reflationary growth into 2026. The conversation also covers rising unemployment data, an increasingly divided Fed, and how the accelerating AI investment race may continue fueling key parts of the market.Key TakeawaysMarket Breadth Expansion: The advance-decline line hitting new highs shows the rally is widening beyond just mega-cap tech.Sector Rotation Strength: Technology lagged in November while healthcare, materials, staples, and financials helped offset the pullback—validating diversified positioning.Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Whipsawed: Odds of a December cut plunged below 30% before surging back above 80% due to rising unemployment, dovish Fed commentary, and Beige Book labor softness.Reflationary Growth View for 2026: Strong global commodities, resilient demand, and expected Fed easing support the case for reflation rather than recession.Crypto Decouples from Junk Tech: Bitcoin fell sharply while non-profitable tech surged, breaking a correlation that typically signals risk-on/off behavior.AI Spending Cycle Accelerates: Competition among AI leaders is driving massive capital spending—benefiting chipmakers, data centers, and related sectors.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.comHashtags#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketOutlook #FedPolicy #Reflation #InvestmentStrategy #Macroeconomics #FinancialMarkets #YearEndRally

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, sit down with Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, to break down the current cyclical and secular bull markets, how AI compares to past transformative periods, what rising rates have meant for valuations, and why international equities are becoming more attractive. They also touch on the role of gold and Bitcoin, how to think about barbell strategies, and what history teaches about market narratives. Key TakeawaysMarket Setup: Today’s environment features a cyclical bull market on top of a long-running secular bull market, similar to past periods like 1994 and the late 1990s.Interest Rates & Valuations: The 2022 market drop came largely from PE compression as rates jumped from near zero to 5%, while earnings actually grew.Historical Parallels: Timmer highlights similarities between today and both the late 1960s (loose fiscal policy, sticky inflation) and late 1990s (tech-driven excitement).Barbell Approach: A mix of mega-cap leaders and undervalued international equities may help manage concentration risk, especially as Europe and Japan boost payouts and trade at lower valuations.Gold & Bitcoin: Timmer views both as scarce, diversifying assets that hedge against periods when bonds may struggle, especially in potential fiscal-dominance environments.Small Caps vs. Large Caps: Small caps show mixed performance due to both traditional domestic exposure and speculative, unprofitable tech tied to AI.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseConnect with Jurrien Timmer:• LinkedIn: Jurrien Timmer• X: @TimmerFidelityQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.comDisclosure: Jurrien Timmer is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by our guests may not be representative of CWM, LLC.Hashtags#FactsVsFeelings #MarketInsights #InvestingPodcast #MacroOutlook #GlobalMarkets #AssetAllocation #CarsonGroup

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the surge in market volatility and what they believe is truly behind it. They explore shifting rate-cut expectations from the Fed, how mixed economic data is shaping the outlook, and why recent remarks from Fed officials have rattled markets. Ryan and Sonu also break down the sharp risk-off moves in crypto, the resilience of sectors like healthcare and commodities, and more.Key TakeawaysFed Tone Shift: Fed officials struck a more cautious tone after their October meeting, sharply lowering expectations for a December rate cut and contributing to market weakness.Labor Data Uncertainty: With government shutdown-related data gaps, the Fed is flying partially blind, making upcoming payroll numbers pivotal in determining whether cuts resume.Crypto as Risk-Off Signal: Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen steep declines since last month, acting as a clear risk-off indicator and spilling into tech-adjacent equities.Sector Divergence: Healthcare (especially biotech), utilities, and value stocks have held up better during the pullback, while small-cap growth and speculative tech have lagged sharply.Commodities Showing Strength: Despite volatility, key commodities like copper, natural gas, silver, and jet fuel are meaningfully higher year-to-date—signs that global activity is holding up better than headlines suggest.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.comHashtags#FactsVsFeelings #MarketVolatility #FederalReserve #MacroPodcast #InvestingInsights #MarketOutlook #CarsonGroup

Dive into the dynamics of a shifting market as experts analyze the government's planned reopening amidst strong earnings growth. Despite solid economic indicators, consumer sentiment is lagging, revealing a stark contrast between feelings and reality. They debunk the myths of a 'K-shaped economy,' illustrating that perceptions of widening inequality may be exaggerated. With political gridlock often seen as beneficial for stocks, global demand continues to bolster market optimism as they look ahead to 2026.

Exploring the booming S&P 500, hosts discuss its remarkable 23% rally and the historical momentum that often follows. Tech stocks are climbing, with the Magnificent Seven leading the way. Global equity markets are seeing gains too, particularly in Asia. The U.S. economy shows resilience despite the K-shaped narrative, with GDP growth and robust earnings reports. Trade tensions are easing, which may impact tariffs positively. The conversation wraps up with insights on the Federal Reserve’s recent actions and future market implications.

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, hosted a special Halloween livestream featuring Joe Fahmy, Managing Director at Zor Capital, and Warren Pies, Co-Founder and Strategist at 3Fourteen Research. Together they explore what’s driving markets at the end of 2025—from AI-led growth and investor sentiment to fiscal spending, oil, and the broader economic outlook. The result is an entertaining and insightful look at how two veteran strategists interpret this bull market and what it could mean heading into 2026 and beyond.Key TakeawaysJoe Fahmy Segment:Broad-Based Bull Market: Joe sees strength well beyond the “Magnificent 7,” with AI, quantum computing, and clean energy creating multiple growth engines.Adaptability Over Bias: He stresses that successful investors aren’t perma-bulls or perma-bears. They adapt as the data changes.Technical Discipline: Joe relies on the 50-day moving average to define market health. Above it, stay constructive; below it, get defensive.Cautious Sentiment: He notes that many investors remain nervous, which helps sustain the market’s “wall of worry” and supports further upside.AI as the Next Revolution: He predicts the current bull market could extend into 2027 as AI transforms productivity similar to past technological breakthroughs.Warren Pies Segment:Debasement: Warren frames today’s cycle as a shift from deflation fears to worries about fiscal expansion, debt, and currency dilution.Equities as Inflation Hedges: He highlights that S&P 500 earnings have outpaced inflation nearly every year since 2009, proving stocks’ resilience.Energy Outlook: Warren maintains a bearish view on oil, citing signs of oversupply and weakening global demand.Equity and Yield Outlook: He expects modest but positive stock gains through 2026 as yields drift lower and fiscal support remains steady.Economic View: Warren describes the U.S. economy as being in a “muddle-through slowdown,” with government spending and the wealth effect offsetting recession risks.Joe and Warren are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseConnect with Joe Fahmy:• X: @jfahmyConnect with Warren Pies:• LinkedIn: Warren Pies• X: @WarrenPies Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Hashtags#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Markets #Investing #BullMarket #AI #Economy #Inflation #StockMarket #MarketOutlook

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss why a strong year-end rally may already be underway. They explore the drivers behind market momentum, earnings strength, inflation trends, and the Fed’s next moves, while adding insight, a bit of humor, and practical perspective for investors heading into the final stretch of 2025.Key Takeaways:·       Seasonality on Investors’ Side: November and December have historically been strong months for equities, especially when the S&P 500 is up 15% heading into year-end.·       Resilient Earnings: Nearly 87% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations, one of the strongest showings in years.·       Sentiment Still Skeptical: Surveys continue to show more bears than bulls, but confidence is building as investors look toward a possible year-end rally.·       Inflation Cooling but Sticky: Core CPI rose just 0.23% in September (2.8% annualized), showing progress even as service-sector prices remain firm.·       The Fed Turns Dovish: Rate cuts are expected to continue into 2026, potentially bringing policy below 3%—a setup that has historically supported markets.·       Easing Trade Tensions: U.S.–China progress on tariffs and rare earths adds another macro tailwind to investor confidence.·       Market Breadth: Equal-weight indexes across the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq recently hit all-time highs, showing strength beyond mega-cap tech.DON’T MISS our special Halloween livestream on YouTube starting at 10:30amCT this Friday, October 31, 2025! Click here for more info: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0alr4-vDLK8 Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Hashtags: #FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketRally #InvestingInsights #StockMarket #Inflation #FederalReserve #EarningsSeason #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #WealthManagement   

Kate Hall, VP of Alternative Due Diligence at Carson Group, dives into the evolving world of private credit, which has tripled since 2015. She discusses the importance of due diligence and diversification in navigating potential credit risks, symbolized by the metaphorical 'cockroaches in a bull market.' The conversation highlights gold's recent surge linked to inflation concerns and why strong bank earnings defy broader worries. They also explore the implications of credit market signals and the necessity of vigilance against fraud in private lending.

Summary: In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the renewed tensions between the U.S. and China—what they’re calling “Trade War 3.0.” They break down the latest round of tariffs, China’s restrictions on rare earth exports, and what this means for markets, global trade, and investors. The conversation also touches on October’s trademark market volatility, the three-year anniversary of the current bull market, and Carson Group’s exciting milestone of surpassing $50 billion in assets under management. To wrap up, Ryan and Sonu discuss how AI investments are shaping economic growth and why diversification remains key as the market rides this wave of innovation.Key Takeaways:Trade War 3.0: The China trade war is back, with new tariffs and export restrictions creating fresh market uncertainty.Not a Shock: October remains the most volatile month for markets—current swings are historically typical.The Bull’s Birthday: The three-year bull market continues to show resilience and momentum heading into year four.Massive Impact: AI-related investment is a key driver of GDP growth, fueling spending, innovation, and market optimism.Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick • X: @RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese • X: @SonuVargheseQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you — factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Investing #MarketOutlook #ChinaTradeWar #Tariffs #GlobalMarkets #EconomicTrends #RareEarths #AIMarkets #NVIDIA #OpenAI #StockMarket #FinancialPlanning #MarketInsights