Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss why a strong year-end rally may already be underway. They explore the drivers behind market momentum, earnings strength, inflation trends, and the Fed’s next moves, while adding insight, a bit of humor, and practical perspective for investors heading into the final stretch of 2025.Key Takeaways:·       Seasonality on Investors’ Side: November and December have historically been strong months for equities, especially when the S&P 500 is up 15% heading into year-end.·       Resilient Earnings: Nearly 87% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations, one of the strongest showings in years.·       Sentiment Still Skeptical: Surveys continue to show more bears than bulls, but confidence is building as investors look toward a possible year-end rally.·       Inflation Cooling but Sticky: Core CPI rose just 0.23% in September (2.8% annualized), showing progress even as service-sector prices remain firm.·       The Fed Turns Dovish: Rate cuts are expected to continue into 2026, potentially bringing policy below 3%—a setup that has historically supported markets.·       Easing Trade Tensions: U.S.–China progress on tariffs and rare earths adds another macro tailwind to investor confidence.·       Market Breadth: Equal-weight indexes across the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq recently hit all-time highs, showing strength beyond mega-cap tech.DON’T MISS our special Halloween livestream on YouTube starting at 10:30amCT this Friday, October 31, 2025! Click here for more info: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0alr4-vDLK8 Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Hashtags: #FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketRally #InvestingInsights #StockMarket #Inflation #FederalReserve #EarningsSeason #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #WealthManagement   

Kate Hall, VP of Alternative Due Diligence at Carson Group, dives into the evolving world of private credit, which has tripled since 2015. She discusses the importance of due diligence and diversification in navigating potential credit risks, symbolized by the metaphorical 'cockroaches in a bull market.' The conversation highlights gold's recent surge linked to inflation concerns and why strong bank earnings defy broader worries. They also explore the implications of credit market signals and the necessity of vigilance against fraud in private lending.

Summary: In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the renewed tensions between the U.S. and China—what they’re calling “Trade War 3.0.” They break down the latest round of tariffs, China’s restrictions on rare earth exports, and what this means for markets, global trade, and investors. The conversation also touches on October’s trademark market volatility, the three-year anniversary of the current bull market, and Carson Group’s exciting milestone of surpassing $50 billion in assets under management. To wrap up, Ryan and Sonu discuss how AI investments are shaping economic growth and why diversification remains key as the market rides this wave of innovation.Key Takeaways:Trade War 3.0: The China trade war is back, with new tariffs and export restrictions creating fresh market uncertainty.Not a Shock: October remains the most volatile month for markets—current swings are historically typical.The Bull’s Birthday: The three-year bull market continues to show resilience and momentum heading into year four.Massive Impact: AI-related investment is a key driver of GDP growth, fueling spending, innovation, and market optimism.Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick • X: @RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese • X: @SonuVargheseQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you — factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Investing #MarketOutlook #ChinaTradeWar #Tariffs #GlobalMarkets #EconomicTrends #RareEarths #AIMarkets #NVIDIA #OpenAI #StockMarket #FinancialPlanning #MarketInsights

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, tackle the market implications of the ongoing government shutdown, the surge in gold prices, and what investors should expect from the Fed. They also dig into the booming AI investment cycle, shifting momentum across market caps, and why the labor market remains resilient even as hiring slows.Key TakeawaysGold Shines Bright:  Gold has remained on the rise, nearing $4,000 an ounce as central banks buy aggressively and inflation concerns persist.Shutdown, Not Slowdown:  Despite Washington gridlock, the S&P 500 keeps hitting record highs. Historically, markets shrug off shutdowns and focus on Fed policy instead.Rate Cuts Coming:  Fed futures signal multiple cuts starting this fall. Weak hiring but low layoffs point to a cooling, not collapsing, economy.AI Spending Surge:  OpenAI, NVIDIA, AMD, and others are driving a wave of capital investment, with AI-related spending now accounting for roughly 6% of U.S. GDP.Market Momentum Builds:  Strong seasonality, easing rates, and improving earnings expectations set the stage for a solid Q4, even as mid-caps lag under tariff pressure.Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick • X: @RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese • X: @SonuVargheseQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you — factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Gold #FederalReserve #AI #GovernmentShutdown #Investing #StockMarket #WealthManagement #EconomicOutlook #MarketInsights

In this special episode of Facts vs. Feelings, recorded live at Excell 2025 in Phoenix, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, sit down with Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, to discuss gold, crypto, ETFs, and the future of investing. From the history of the first U.S. gold fund to today’s innovations in blockchain, stablecoins, and nuclear energy, Jan shares unique insights into how markets are evolving.Key TakeawaysGold & Bitcoin: Gold remains a global safe haven, while Bitcoin is increasingly seen as “digital gold,” according to Jan.Stablecoins: Potentially revolutionary for payments, creating new competition between banks and tech companies.Macro Trends: The rise of India could reshape global markets, while China’s equity returns remain lackluster.Energy & AI: Nuclear energy is regaining bipartisan support as demand for power surges, particularly from AI growth.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseConnect with Jan van Eck:• LinkedIn: Jan van Eck• X: @JanvanEck3 Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Disclosure: Jan van Eck is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by our guests may not be representative of CWM, LLC.#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Gold #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETFs #Stablecoins #Investing #WealthManagement #MarketInsights 

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, tackle the growing comparisons between today’s market and the 1929 crash. They cut through the noise on gold sentiment, small-cap strength, earnings growth, Fed policy, and consumer resilience—all in under 52 minutes.Key Takeaways1929 comparisons: Why we believe today’s bull market is not a replay of the Great Depression.Gold sentiment: The metal has been a strong diversifier for portfolios so far this year.Small caps: They’re breaking out after nearly four years without new highs.Earnings reporting: The hosts debate quarterly vs. semiannual disclosures after President Trump floated the idea last week.The Fed: What the recent rate cut mean, labor market concerns, and why equities rallied.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#FactsVsFeelings #StockMarket #BullMarket #Gold #SmallCaps #Fed #RetailSales #InvestingPodcast #MarketUpdate

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, recorded live at Excell 2025 in Phoenix, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. From jobs data revisions and labor supply challenges to the Fed’s upcoming rate decisions, productivity, AI, and the outlook for portfolios, this episode is packed with insights advisors and investors can use right now.Key TakeawaysJobs revisions: Recent downward adjustments highlight slowing payroll growth.Labor market: Supply shortages are keeping unemployment low despite weak hiring.Productivity: AI may boost output, but inequality risks remain.Fed policy: There’s a debate on whether cuts would stimulate the economy or actually drag it down.Tax refunds: 2025 policy changes could deliver a stimulus-like boost.Global opportunities: International equities could benefit from a weaker dollar.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseConnect with Dr. David Kelly:• Website: Dr. David Kelly• LinkedIn: Dr. David KellyQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.comDisclosure: Dr. David Kelly is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by our guests may not be representative of CWM, LLC.#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #DavidKelly #MarketOutlook #FedPolicy #InvestingPodcast #ExcelConference #Economy2025

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, recorded live at Excell 2025 in Phoenix, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by Strider Elass of First Trust and Samuel Rines of WisdomTree for a timely discussion on the labor market, inflation trends, tariffs, and what investors should watch heading into late 2025. The conversation covers job growth concentration in a few sectors, revisions in employment data, underlying inflation measures, and how tariffs may reshape growth, manufacturing, and markets.Key TakeawaysAfter the latest jobs report, unemployment sits at 4.3%, with weakness concentrated outside health, education, and government.Real-time shelter metrics suggest underlying inflation is lower than official reports.Effective tariff rates could rise further, pressuring companies and growth.Growth could see a potential reacceleration in late 2025, but risk remains of structural slowdown.Health care services have been driving job creation, while manufacturing faces losses.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseConnect with Strider Elass:• LinkedIn: Strider Elass• X: @StriderElassConnect with Samuel Rines:• LinkedIn: Samuel Rines• X: @SamuelRinesQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.comStrider Elass and Samuel Rines are not affiliated with CWM, LLC.  Opinions expressed by our guests may not be representative of CWM, LLC.#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketOutlook #JobsReport #Inflation #Tariffs #Economy2025 #InvestingPodcast

Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese tackle September's market challenges, analyzing Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish comments and their impact on small-cap stocks. They explore the balancing act of jobs and inflation, along with the implications of a steepening yield curve. The duo discusses gold's rising prices as a hedge against inflation and the potential for consumer spending due to falling rates. Despite the seasonal volatility, they maintain a bullish long-term outlook and hint at exciting upcoming guests and live events.

Cliff Asness, co-founder of AQR Capital Management and a luminary in quantitative investing, reappears to share his insights on today’s market dynamics. He discusses the notion of market bubbles and why they might not be as dire as feared. Cliff dives into the rise of social media grifts and the speculative nature of crypto investments. He reflects on unexpected economic anomalies and the efficacy of buffered ETFs. The conversation takes a personal turn with humorous parenting stories and pop culture references, making for a captivating listen.