Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome tech analyst Dan Ives, Managing Director at Wedbush, to discuss the state of AI, the future of autonomous technologies, China-U.S. relations in tech, and investment opportunities beyond the usual headlines.Broadcasting from Carson's 2025 Spring Partner Summit in Omaha, this conversation blends covers everything from Tesla and Palantir to Microsoft's AI momentum and more.Key TakeawaysTesla Is Not Just a Car Company: Dan emphasized that Tesla should be valued as a disruptive AI and robotics company, not merely an automaker. Autonomous robotics are seen as a core driver of its future valuation.AI Party Is Just Getting Started: We're still in the early innings of the AI revolution—around “10:30 p.m.” on an all-night timeline, according to Dan. He likens skeptics to party-poopers who will wish they had joined once the sun comes up.China Cannot Be Decoupled: Efforts to cut ties with China in tech manufacturing are unrealistic, says Dan. The U.S. relies heavily on Chinese infrastructure, and disrupting this would have broad economic consequences.Apple as the AI Highway: While Apple may have lagged in AI innovation early on, Dan believes it will become the dominant platform for consumer AI applications thanks to its vast device ecosystem and installed base.Microsoft's Untapped AI Monetization: Despite a recent lull in stock performance, Dan sees Microsoft as massively underappreciated in its AI capabilities, especially within its enterprise customer base.Google (Alphabet) Is Underloved: Alphabet is currently the most underestimated of the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks, particularly due to overstated concerns about search being disrupted by AI.Palantir’s Long-Term Role: Dan projects Palantir as a trillion-dollar company in the making, thanks to its growing role in enterprise and sovereign AI applications.AI Stocks Beyond the Headlines: Emerging names like Pegasystems, SoundHound, Veronis, and CyberArk are cited as under-the-radar plays in the AI boom, especially in areas like cybersecurity and data infrastructure.Autonomous + Robotics = Game Changer: Dan envisions a near-future where humanoid robots under $20,000 become household norms—transforming labor, transportation, and daily life.Bitcoin’s Role in Tech: Bitcoin’s institutional adoption is growing, and Dan sees it as a risk-on asset with increasing relevance, especially in a deregulated environment. Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrick Connect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Connect with Dan:• LinkedIn: Daniel Ives• X: @DivesTech Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#FactsVsFeelings #DanIves #AIRevolution #TeslaAI #MicrosoftAI #TechInvesting #AutonomousFuture #InnovationEconomy #NVIDIA #Palantir #CryptoAndTech #ChinaUSRelations #BigTech #FutureOfWork #CarsonPartners #FinancialPodcast 

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by returning guest Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director of Employ America, as they dive deep into macroeconomic dynamics, market reactions, and policy shifts.Together, they examine inflation metrics, shifting recession probabilities, the role of tariffs, and the evolving landscape of productivity and AI-related capital investment. Skanda brings grounded clarity on interpreting economic data without succumbing to noise or sensationalism, offering practical insights for advisors and investors alike.Key Takeaways:PCE vs CPI for Tracking Inflation: CPI gets more attention due to its simplicity and timing, but the Fed prioritizes PCE. Skanda emphasizes that CPI may be better for gauging immediate market sentiment, while PCE is conceptually stronger for long-term economic trends.Macro Noise & Recession Probability: Macroeconomic forecasting in today’s environment is fraught with uncertainty. Constant updates from institutions and media (e.g., fluctuating recession odds) highlight the need for discipline in economic modeling and scenario planning.Economic Resilience Remains Strong: Despite shocks from trade policies and tariffs, data like payroll growth and strong consumer balance sheets suggest the U.S. economy remains fundamentally sound.Tariff Impacts on Inflation and Growth: Tariffs increase costs that are typically passed through to businesses and consumers; however, much depends on the magnitude. Unilateral trade policies introduce substantial risk and uncertainty for exporters and investors.AI-Driven Productivity Is Real — But Vulnerable: Capital expenditures in Q1 were strongly influenced by AI infrastructure investments. While this is currently a major tailwind for GDP and productivity, overreliance on one sector (like tech) can create future vulnerabilities if momentum shifts.Why Lower Oil Prices Haven’t Translated to Relief at the Pump Oil prices are down, but gas prices haven’t followed suit. Sonu dove into that topic in his recent blog: https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/why-lower-oil-prices-havent-translated-to-relief-at-the-pump/Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrick Connect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Connect with Skanda:• X: @IrvingSwisher Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #Macroeconomics #Inflation #CPI #PCE #RecessionWatch #EconomicForecast #AIInvestment #ProductivityGrowth #Tariffs #FinancialMarkets #EmployAmerica #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #SkandaAmarnath

The hosts dive into a surprising market rally following a U.S.-China tariff ceasefire that sparked bullish momentum. They discuss trade negotiations marked by a 90-day pause and the implications for investors. The conversation also highlights historic patterns indicating strong potential market returns and reflects on the Fed’s upcoming moves. Amidst the serious talk, lighter moments shine through, balancing family stories with financial insights. Overall, optimism reigns as the economy shows signs of recovery and stabilization.

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the messy, muddy Q1 GDP report and break down why the headline number might be misleading. They also explain the disconnect between public sentiment and actual economic data, touch on Warren Buffett’s retirement announcement, set expectations for the Fed’s next move, and more.Key Takeaways:GDP Looks Weak at First Glance—But Isn't: GDP for Q1 came in negative for the first time in three years, but parsing the data shows there are still plenty of signals—though also plenty of uncertainty.A Fond Farewell: Ryan and Sonu reflect on Warren Buffett’s remarkable career after his announcement over the weekend that he’d be stepping away from Berkshire Hathaway.Consumer Spending Still Strong: Consumer spending has remained high even amid tariff uncertainty, but auto sales have been a sign of weakness.Fed Uncertainty: Though it’s still unclear when or if the Fed might cut rates, we should get some clarity this week.Earnings Beat Expectations: Q1 earnings came in ahead of expectations, buoying the market during an uncertain time.Strong Stocks: The market ended April and opened May with a nine-day winning streak, a sign of resilience amid tariff uncertainty. Connect with Ryan:•       LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick•       X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:•       LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese•       X: @sonusvargheseQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com  #FactsVsFeelings #GDPGrowth #ConsumerSpending #ImmigrationEconomics #MarketOutlook #FedPolicy #StockMarketUpdate #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #EconomicReality #RecessionMyth #StagflationDebunked

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dissect the market’s strong rally amid tariff turmoil and examine whether policy pullbacks from Washington are signaling a win for the stock market.The duo also dives into technical indicators, sentiment extremes, earnings expectations, and the broader economic implications of continued trade tensions with China. Plus, a golden discussion — literally — about gold’s recent surge and what it might mean for investors.Key Takeaways:Markets vs. TariffsPolicy SensitivityMarket Breadth & TechnicalsNear Bear MarketsTrade Impact LagFed & Policy OutlookEarnings ExpectationsSentiment ExtremesGold SurgeConnect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#StockMarket #Tariffs #MarketUpdate #EconomicOutlook #InvestorSentiment #S&P500 #Gold #MarketRally #FederalReserve #EarningsSeason #FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #FinancialPodcast

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by Cathie Wood of Ark Invest to unpack the state of innovation in finance, the market’s reaction to tariffs, and the evolving role of AI, Bitcoin, and government in shaping the future economy.Together, they explore whether we are entering a recession or exiting one, and how long-term investors can cut through short-term volatility. Cathie also shares her thoughts on manufacturing reshoring, AI’s role in diagnostics and automation, OpenAI’s dominance, and why Bitcoin might just be getting started. Key Takeaways:Market headwinds are turning into tailwindsRisk of a recession is on the riseTariff chaos could be offset some by tax cuts and deregulationAI will catalyze every sectorBitcoin and gold can be hedges against market volatility, but there’s still uncertaintyManufacturing is coming back to the U.S., but with more automationThe government’s role in innovation is evolving as the private sector progressesConnect with Cathie:•       X: @cathiedwoodConnect with Ryan:•       LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick•       X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:•       LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese•       X: @sonusvarghe Relevant Hashtags:#CathieWood #ARKInvest #Bitcoin #AI #Tariffs #Innovation #StockMarket #Recession #FactsVsFeelings #TechnologyInvesting #CarsonGroup #FinancialPodcast #OpenAI #Automation #EconomicOutlook #RollingRecession #Reshoring #DigitalAssets #Investing

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dissect the ripple effects of tariffs, high interest rates, and a wavering investment environment on the U.S. and global economies.With companies freezing investment plans and government spending cooling off, the duo explores how the consumer remains the last line of economic defense—so long as the labor market holds. They also explore why the Fed might be making a mistake by keeping rates elevated, the possibility of a white-flag moment from President Trump, and how diversification remains the smartest play during times of uncertainty.Key TakeawaysTariffs Are Already Reshaping Corporate Behavior GDP Growth is Vulnerable Labor Market is the Tipping Point Fed Policy May Be Too Tight for Too Long The Market’s Bull Case? Trump Waves the White Flag Next Week's Guest: Cathie Wood Our next episode will feature Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood, as we’ll dive into tech and recession perspectives.Connect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseMusic Credit: Ryan the Savior of Stocks – by Jake Guttman (This song was created using A.I.) https://suno.com/song/c11f8ece-b4b8-45f0-b6e6-ae0e761708b7Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#FactsVsFeelings #Markets #Tariffs #FedPolicy #GDP #LaborMarket #Investing #Diversification #InterestRates #TrumpEconomy #CathieWood #EconomicOutlook #ConsumerSpending

Dive into the aftermath of recent tariffs and their shocking impact on the markets, as the Dow takes a nosedive. Explore the looming possibility of a recession and rising inflation due to tariff-induced price hikes. Discover why diversification in investment portfolios is more crucial than ever as market volatility increases. The hosts also share insights on navigating trade relationships, economic strategies, and even throw in some light-hearted personal anecdotes that connect life's unpredictability to market trends.

In this special episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome Jess Menton, Senior Reporter at Bloomberg News, and Kate Hall, VP, Alternative Due Diligence, at Carson Group. The conversation explores career growth, industry challenges, and what the future holds for female leaders in financial services.Key Takeaways:The importance of representation: Women in leadership serve as role models, paving the way for future generations.Overcoming industry challenges: Jess and Kate share personal experiences navigating male-dominated spaces in finance.The power of mentorship: The guests discuss how building strong networks and mentorship opportunities are key to helping advance women in the industry.Market insights: The panel discusses economic trends, investing strategies, and the current state of the markets.Advice for the next generation: The group talks about how to encourage young women considering careers in finance and how the industry can better support them.This is more than just a market discussion—it’s about leadership, resilience, and the future of finance.Connect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseConnect with Jess Menton:LinkedIn: Jessica MentonX: @JessicaMentonConnect with Kate Hall:LinkedIn: Kate K. HallHashtags#FactsVsFeelings #MarketTrends #Economy #FedPolicy #StockMarket #Turkey #InterestRates #Inflation #Investing #LaborMarket

In this special episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome Lindsey Bell, Chief Market Strategist at Clearonomics, and Debbie Taylor, Managing Partner and Chief Tax Strategist at Carson Wealth, for a special Women’s History Month Livestream. Together, they discuss their careers, recent market trends, and how investors can navigate today's economic landscape.Key Takeaways:Market Insights & Volatility – Are recent corrections normal? We take a look at the stock market’s history following recent corrections. The Role of Women in Finance – Lindsey and Debbie share their career journeys, the challenges they faced along the way, and lessons from their time in the financial industry. Tax Strategies & Planning – Debbie discusses tax efficiency, investment strategies, and financial planning for long-term success. Economic Trends & Consumer Behavior – What do earnings growth, job markets, and tariffs mean for investors?Connect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseConnect with Lindsey:LinkedIn: Lindsey BellX: @justLBellConnect with Debbie:LinkedIn: Debbie TaylorQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com