Warren Pies, Co-founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins the discussion, offering expertise in macro quantitative research. They explore the latest job numbers, stressing that despite concerns, key indicators like residential construction payrolls are holding steady. The Fed's challenge of finding a neutral interest rate and its potential impact on economic growth takes center stage. Additionally, they celebrate Pi Day and St. Patrick’s Day with lighthearted anecdotes about favorite pies and Chicago's iconic green river tradition.

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the latest market volatility, tariff concerns, and whether the economy is truly slowing down or if fears are overblown. Despite uncertainty, they analyze the data behind the "growth scare" and discuss whether the bull market still has room to run.Key Takeaways:Market Volatility & Growth Concerns: Stocks have pulled back due to new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, but history shows that early-year volatility in a post-election cycle is normal.Tariffs & Economic Impact: Tariffs are sparking concerns, but the lack of a dollar surge suggests it may not spiral into a full trade war.Stock Market Resilience: While tech has struggled, financials, real estate, and consumer staples have shown strong performance, proving the market can broaden out beyond large-cap tech.Fed & Interest Rates: Despite inflation fears, rate cuts remain on the table for later this year, potentially providing a tailwind for stocks.Seasonal Trends & Historical Context: The first quarter of post-election years tends to be choppy, but historical data suggests a stronger market performance in the coming months.Consumer Spending & Economic Data: A sharp drop in GDP expectations is mostly driven by a trade imbalance and tariff front-loading, rather than an actual economic collapse.What’s your take on the markets? Drop a comment below and let us know! Don't forget to like, subscribe, and share for weekly market insights!Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese#StockMarket #Investing #MarketVolatility #Tariffs #EconomicGrowth #InterestRates #BullMarket #FederalReserve #FinancePodcast #CarsonGroup

Explore the latest market dynamics as stocks hit record highs despite concerns over tariffs and inflation. Discover the potential for Fed rate cuts and impressive earnings growth across sectors. The hosts discuss surprising resilience in consumer finances amid rising debt and the complexities of economic indicators. They highlight the importance of diversification in uncertain times and share entertaining personal stories alongside valuable insights into market trends.

Summary:In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the rising cost of eggs and other factors contributing to inflation stickiness. They also discuss the stock market flirting with an all-time high, when to expect cuts from the Fed, and much more!Key Takeaways:The S&P 500 is near an all-time high despite economic concerns.Inflation remains a hot topic, with rising egg prices making headlines.Momentum is driving market performance, with all 11 S&P sectors in positive territory.Housing, auto insurance, and used cars are the primary contributors to inflation stickiness.The Fed remains in a cutting bias, but rate cuts may not happen until midyear.Trade and tariff policies have the potential for long-term market impacts.The possibility of a government shutdown is looming, adding another layer of uncertainty.Retail sales took a surprising hit, but that may be due to recent extreme weather and seasonality.Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.comConnect with Ryan:LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu:LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseRelevant Hashtags:#StockMarket #Investing #Inflation #InterestRates #MarketTrends #FinancePodcast #Eggflation #FederalReserve #Tariffs #PersonalFinance #CarsonGroup

Summary: In this episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the biggest economic and market concerns beyond tariffs. They dive into historical market indicators, the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, employment trends, and whether the third year of a bull market signals trouble. The duo also touches on global markets, the effects of potential retaliatory tariffs, and the latest employment data revisions.Key Takeaways:·       Tariff Uncertainty: New tariffs on steel and aluminum imports could lead to retaliatory measures from Europe and other trade partners.·       Market Indicators: The December low indicator flashed a warning, though broader market trends remain resilient.·       Federal Reserve & Interest Rates: The Fed is taking a cautious approach, possibly delaying rate cuts until later in the year or even 2026.·       Employment Trends: Payroll revisions lowered job growth estimates, but productivity gains remain a silver lining.·       Market Breadth & Leadership Shift: Large-cap tech stocks show signs of lagging, while broader market participation remains mixed.·       Historical Trends: Year three of a bull market tends to be weaker, averaging only a 2% gain.·     Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com  Connect with Ryan:  ·    LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick·     X: Ryan Detrick Connect with Sonu:  ·    LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese·      X: Sonu Varghese Relevant Hashtags: #StockMarket #Investing #Economy #Tariffs #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Finance #MarketTrends #WealthManagement #Trading #EconomicOutlook

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group,  dive into the latest tariff drama, analyzing its potential impact on the economy, markets, and inflation. They explore past trade wars, the Fed’s stance on inflation uncertainty, and how fiscal policy—especially potential tax cuts—could shape 2025. Plus, they discuss the January market rally, historical trends for February, and why volatility is a necessary part of investing.Ryan and Sonu discuss:Tariffs create uncertainty, but history shows markets adapt.The Fed’s rate cut timeline may be delayed due to inflation concerns.Fiscal policy could offset the impact of tariffs, especially with potential tax cuts.Despite uncertainty, broadening market trends and strong corporate earnings remain positive.February has historically been weak post-election, but the long-term outlook remains bullish.Resources: ●         Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com  Connect with Ryan Detrick:  ●         LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick●         X: Ryan Detrick Connect with Sonu Varghese:  ●         LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese●         X: Sonu Varghese Publishing Tags: #FinancialMarkets #Investing #StockMarket #Economy #Tariffs #TradeWar #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketTrends #InvestmentStrategy #GlobalEconomy #StockMarketAnalysis #EconomicPolicy #PersonalFinance #FinancialPlanning #InvestorEducation #MarketVolatility #Trading #WealthManagement #FinancePodcast

Artificial Intelligence is reshaping industries and global competition, and understanding its market impact is critical.How do advancements like DeepSeek's AI change the game? What does it mean for the global economy, technology stocks, and U.S.-China relations?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the transformative impact of AI, the economic trends shaping 2024, and the importance of diversification in portfolios. They also discuss the implications of AI for productivity, technology sector competition, and global markets.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The emergence of DeepSeek, a cost-effective and open-source AI competitor, and its implications for the AI marketU.S. and Chinese competition in technology innovation and the broader economic significance of AI advancementsThe impact of AI cost reductions on accessibility, productivity, and business adoption across sectorsRecent market trends, including the role of technology stocks, mid-cap performances, and financial sector growthThe broader economic outlook, emphasizing the benefits of AI-driven cost efficiencies for the economy and the importance of maintaining diversified investment strategiesAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

Markets are buzzing with surprising strength, particularly among small and mid-cap stocks. Inflation metrics are improving, influenced by lagging indicators like housing costs. The potential impact of tariffs and a stronger dollar could reshape U.S. manufacturing and inflation expectations. Labor market trends show resilience, especially in construction jobs, suggesting economic stabilization. Amidst this, policy uncertainties and community support stories weave through the discussion, highlighting the complex web of current economic dynamics.

Explore the dynamic landscape of market strategies as the hosts reveal their optimistic predictions for 2025. They discuss expected stock growth of 12-15% and bond performance at 4-7%, driven by resilient consumer behavior. The conversation also highlights potential risks from interest rate hikes and a stagnant housing market. Insights on inflation trends and the U.S. dollar's impact on earnings further enrich the discussion. Listeners will find valuable strategies for diversified investments, particularly in mid-cap and small-cap sectors.

How do market strategists assess their predictions and refine their strategies for the future?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, reflect on 2024's market outcomes. They explore what they anticipated correctly, where they misjudged, and how these insights shape their 2025 outlook.They also highlight the key drivers behind market performance, emphasizing transparency and adaptability in strategy.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The impact of a Santa Claus rally that failed to materialize and its implications for short-term market sentimentThe contributions of earnings growth, dividends, and multiple expansion to the S&P 500's 25% total return in 2024Their successful forecast of Federal Reserve rate cuts and their influence on economic stabilityThe underperformance of small and mid-cap stocks despite positive expectations and the need to adapt to market shiftsThe strong performance of U.S. equities over international stocks, driven by relative economic strength and a resilient dollarAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese