Summary: In this episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the biggest economic and market concerns beyond tariffs. They dive into historical market indicators, the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, employment trends, and whether the third year of a bull market signals trouble. The duo also touches on global markets, the effects of potential retaliatory tariffs, and the latest employment data revisions.Key Takeaways:·       Tariff Uncertainty: New tariffs on steel and aluminum imports could lead to retaliatory measures from Europe and other trade partners.·       Market Indicators: The December low indicator flashed a warning, though broader market trends remain resilient.·       Federal Reserve & Interest Rates: The Fed is taking a cautious approach, possibly delaying rate cuts until later in the year or even 2026.·       Employment Trends: Payroll revisions lowered job growth estimates, but productivity gains remain a silver lining.·       Market Breadth & Leadership Shift: Large-cap tech stocks show signs of lagging, while broader market participation remains mixed.·       Historical Trends: Year three of a bull market tends to be weaker, averaging only a 2% gain.·     Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com  Connect with Ryan:  ·    LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick·     X: Ryan Detrick Connect with Sonu:  ·    LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese·      X: Sonu Varghese Relevant Hashtags: #StockMarket #Investing #Economy #Tariffs #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Finance #MarketTrends #WealthManagement #Trading #EconomicOutlook

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group,  dive into the latest tariff drama, analyzing its potential impact on the economy, markets, and inflation. They explore past trade wars, the Fed’s stance on inflation uncertainty, and how fiscal policy—especially potential tax cuts—could shape 2025. Plus, they discuss the January market rally, historical trends for February, and why volatility is a necessary part of investing.Ryan and Sonu discuss:Tariffs create uncertainty, but history shows markets adapt.The Fed’s rate cut timeline may be delayed due to inflation concerns.Fiscal policy could offset the impact of tariffs, especially with potential tax cuts.Despite uncertainty, broadening market trends and strong corporate earnings remain positive.February has historically been weak post-election, but the long-term outlook remains bullish.Resources: ●         Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com  Connect with Ryan Detrick:  ●         LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick●         X: Ryan Detrick Connect with Sonu Varghese:  ●         LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese●         X: Sonu Varghese Publishing Tags: #FinancialMarkets #Investing #StockMarket #Economy #Tariffs #TradeWar #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketTrends #InvestmentStrategy #GlobalEconomy #StockMarketAnalysis #EconomicPolicy #PersonalFinance #FinancialPlanning #InvestorEducation #MarketVolatility #Trading #WealthManagement #FinancePodcast

Artificial Intelligence is reshaping industries and global competition, and understanding its market impact is critical.How do advancements like DeepSeek's AI change the game? What does it mean for the global economy, technology stocks, and U.S.-China relations?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the transformative impact of AI, the economic trends shaping 2024, and the importance of diversification in portfolios. They also discuss the implications of AI for productivity, technology sector competition, and global markets.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The emergence of DeepSeek, a cost-effective and open-source AI competitor, and its implications for the AI marketU.S. and Chinese competition in technology innovation and the broader economic significance of AI advancementsThe impact of AI cost reductions on accessibility, productivity, and business adoption across sectorsRecent market trends, including the role of technology stocks, mid-cap performances, and financial sector growthThe broader economic outlook, emphasizing the benefits of AI-driven cost efficiencies for the economy and the importance of maintaining diversified investment strategiesAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

Markets are buzzing with surprising strength, particularly among small and mid-cap stocks. Inflation metrics are improving, influenced by lagging indicators like housing costs. The potential impact of tariffs and a stronger dollar could reshape U.S. manufacturing and inflation expectations. Labor market trends show resilience, especially in construction jobs, suggesting economic stabilization. Amidst this, policy uncertainties and community support stories weave through the discussion, highlighting the complex web of current economic dynamics.

Explore the dynamic landscape of market strategies as the hosts reveal their optimistic predictions for 2025. They discuss expected stock growth of 12-15% and bond performance at 4-7%, driven by resilient consumer behavior. The conversation also highlights potential risks from interest rate hikes and a stagnant housing market. Insights on inflation trends and the U.S. dollar's impact on earnings further enrich the discussion. Listeners will find valuable strategies for diversified investments, particularly in mid-cap and small-cap sectors.

How do market strategists assess their predictions and refine their strategies for the future?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, reflect on 2024's market outcomes. They explore what they anticipated correctly, where they misjudged, and how these insights shape their 2025 outlook.They also highlight the key drivers behind market performance, emphasizing transparency and adaptability in strategy.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The impact of a Santa Claus rally that failed to materialize and its implications for short-term market sentimentThe contributions of earnings growth, dividends, and multiple expansion to the S&P 500's 25% total return in 2024Their successful forecast of Federal Reserve rate cuts and their influence on economic stabilityThe underperformance of small and mid-cap stocks despite positive expectations and the need to adapt to market shiftsThe strong performance of U.S. equities over international stocks, driven by relative economic strength and a resilient dollarAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

How can advisors truly thrive in their personal and professional lives? Dr. Phil Pearlman brings a refreshing perspective, blending psychology, health, and financial strategy to empower advisors to achieve peak performance.In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Dr. Phil Pearlman, Founder of the Pearl Institute, to explore actionable strategies for enhancing well-being, overcoming modern challenges, and optimizing decision-making. Dr. Pearlman shares insights on building healthier habits, combating distractions, and fostering meaningful connections in an ever-demanding profession.Dr. Pearlman discusses:How to tackle phone addiction and reclaim time for personal growth and relationshipsSimple steps advisors can take to improve health and performance, including dietary and physical activity tipsStrategies for setting and maintaining achievable goals for long-term successThe importance of focusing on individual progress over external comparisons to combat FOMO and enhance satisfactionInsights on leveraging psychological flexibility to quit bad habits and make more effective decisionsAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Dr. Phil Pearlman: Email: ppearlman@gmail.com LinkedIn: Philip PearlmanX: @ppearlmanWebsite: Dr. Phil PearlmanWebsite: Pearl InstituteConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseAbout Our Guest:Phil launched Pearl Institute to help people live healthier, perform better, and make wise decisions. Previously, he spent years serving as an executive in both finance and media. Phil lives with his wife and two boys in Montebello, New York.

Dive into a playful debate on whether the Federal Reserve's recent moves have ruined holiday cheer. Discover how inflation fears and economic indicators are shaping market reactions, along with insights on the potential for the Santa Claus rally this season. The hosts analyze the Fed's evolving strategies, exploring implications for consumers and investors alike. With light-hearted anecdotes and serious discussions about monetary policy, the conversation balances economic analysis with festive spirit.

Are inflation worries overblown? The hosts examine why inflation may not be as persistent as feared, spotlighting consumer strength and the implications for investors. They delve into stock market trends, including the phenomenon of Santa Claus rallies. The conversation highlights misconceptions around 'sticky' inflation and the intricacies of Federal Reserve policies. Additionally, the U.S. consumer's resilience is contrasted with China's economic shifts, particularly in the automobile sector. Tune in for insights on managing financial fears!

Market sentiment is shifting, and the conversation is abuzz with optimism.What drives these changes, and how should investors prepare for potential volatility ahead?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, unveil the surprising rally in the market, factors influencing the shift in sentiment, and the prospects for the coming year. They explore trends in employment, the economy, and the impact of monetary policy changes on investors' strategies.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The market's transition from bearish to bullish sentiment after consecutive strong years of returns, emphasizing shifting sentiment among prominent analystsThe labor market's mixed signals, including steady job creation, rising unemployment rates, and slowing hiring trendsPotential implications of Federal Reserve rate cuts and the broader economic impact, including risks of prolonged pauses in cutsThe resurgence of small-cap stocks and their potential to outperform amid favorable economic growth expectationsGlobal economic risks, including political instability in key regions and their potential impact on the U.S. dollar and broader markets.And more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese