Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, flies solo for this new episode of Facts vs Feelings, joined by longtime chart-watchers Chris Kimble, former CEO of Kimble Charting Solutions, and Scott Brown, Founder of Brown Technical Insights, for a wide-ranging conversation on what the market is signaling as 2025 comes to a close.They dig into market breadth, sector leadership, financials, commodities, and metals that have gone nowhere for over a decade, along with gold’s role, sentiment disconnects, and why certain “boring” areas may be setting up for something much bigger. The discussion blends technical analysis, long-term market history, portfolio construction, and the psychological side of investing, offering context for what could matter most heading into 2026.Chris and Scott are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC.Jump to:0:00 — Opening and guest introductions1:41 — Market surprises and leadership shifts6:05 — Financials, tech, and market breadth12:10 — Gold, metals, and long-term breakouts18:40 — Sentiment, seasonality, and market signals26:10 — China, Fibonacci levels, and global setup34:20 — Research, portfolio construction, and the 2026 outlookConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Scott:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-brown-cmt-22b62891/• X: https://x.com/scottcharts?lang=enConnect with Chris:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-kimble-708b4681/• X: https://x.com/KimbleChartingQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

2025 kept investors off balance, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group turned to Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, to make sense of what actually drove the year. They dig into the gap between perception and reality on market breadth, why speculative pockets unraveled even as leadership widened, and how steady rate cuts, shifting Fed signals, and a softer labor backdrop shaped sentiment. Art also brings decades of perspective on small caps, mid caps, financials, healthcare, and the global forces that may matter most as investors position for 2026.Art Hogan, nor B. Riley Wealth Management, are affiliated with CWM, LLC.Key Takeaways:• Market leadership broadened: More sectors and stocks contributed to gains than investors realized• Speculative areas reset: High-risk themes sold off sharply despite broader market strength• Fed signals stayed mixed: Cuts continued while disagreements inside the committee grew• Labor data softened: Slower hiring and revisions added pressure beneath the surface• Cyclicals built momentum: Financials, healthcare, industrials, and global markets carried meaningful strengthJump to:0:00 — Setting the Stage for 20255:20 — Breadth, Sentiment, and Concentration Fears9:30 — Speculative Shakeout and AI Valuations13:45 — Pullbacks, Psychology, and Market Stats17:15 — The Everything Rally in Context20:40 — Small Caps, Transports, and Quality Leadership34:30 — Fed Cuts, Labor Signals, and the 2026 OutlookConnect with Art• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/arthogan/• X: https://x.com/ArthurHoganIIIConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

A rare split is opening inside the Federal Reserve. Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Wealth, dig into what that tension really means as growth projections move higher and rate cuts keep coming. They break down the widening gap between market expectations and the Fed’s own outlook, the mixed signals coming from the latest dot plot, and what dissenting votes reveal about how policymakers are reading inflation and a softening labor market. At the same time, they look to the areas gaining strength, including cyclicals, global markets, commodities and the latest AI rotation, to understand how a divided Fed is shaping positioning as investors look ahead to 2026.Key Takeaways:• The Fed is diverging internally: The dot plots and dissents show widening disagreement on how aggressively to cut• Markets are pricing a different path: Traders expect more easing than the Fed, especially beyond 2026• Growth projections are rising: The Fed now sees stronger 2025–2026 GDP despite ongoing cuts• Labor-market signals are weakening: Falling quits and slowing hiring increase pressure on policymakers• Cyclical strength continues: Industrials, materials, and developed international markets are pushing the rally forwardJump to:0:00 - Cold Open, Holidays, And Setup2:45 - AI Leadership Rotates And Market Breadth8:50 - Cyclicals Lead, Global Rally Builds14:40 - Europe, Developed Markets, And Industrials20:55 - IPOs, Sentiment, And Bull Market Signals27:00 - The Fed Cuts: Dots, Dissent, And Markets35:20 -Neutral Rate, Long-Run Inflation, And 202641:50 - Press Conference Takeaways And Labor Risks48:10 - Gold Breakout And Commodities Pulse53:30 - Labor Market: JOLTS, Quits, And WagesConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

In this week’s episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese dig into the market’s latest shift toward a potential economic reacceleration, looking at rising global yields, what the renewed steepening of the yield curve may signal, and how broadening market leadership is shaping their outlook. They go through the rebound in tech, the breakout in commodities, stubborn inflation pressures, and the mixed but still-stable labor market. With the Fed’s next move approaching, Ryan and Sonu discuss what policymakers may be forced to confront as growth picks up and investors try to position through the final weeks of the year.Key Takeaways:• Global yields are climbing: The move appears driven more by improving growth expectations than by renewed inflation fears.• The yield curve is steepening: Long-term rates are rising faster than short-term ones, signaling firmer economic momentum.• Market leadership is broadening: Tech is rebounding while financials, industrials, and small caps are showing notable strength.• Commodities are breaking out: A wide range of materials is moving higher, hinting at early reflation even without oil participating.• Inflation is easing but still sticky: Price pressures remain above the Fed’s comfort zone as it prepares for additional rate cuts.Jump to:0:00 – Reacceleration & Markets Setup4:55 – Global Yields, Carry Trade & Yield Curve Shifts9:13 – Bear vs Bull Steepener Explained16:40 – Tech’s Streak, Market Breadth & Sector Rotation24:00 – Commodities Breakout & Late-Cycle Signals32:20 – Inflation pressures: PCE, Services & Risks38:30 – Fed Cuts, Labor Market Trends & Income StrengthConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @SonuVargheseQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the sharp late-November market swings, why December historically favors gains, and how shifting Fed expectations have driven sentiment. They break down sector rotation, the surprising divergence between crypto and junk tech, the return of market breadth, and the growing possibility of reflationary growth into 2026. The conversation also covers rising unemployment data, an increasingly divided Fed, and how the accelerating AI investment race may continue fueling key parts of the market.Key TakeawaysMarket Breadth Expansion: The advance-decline line hitting new highs shows the rally is widening beyond just mega-cap tech.Sector Rotation Strength: Technology lagged in November while healthcare, materials, staples, and financials helped offset the pullback—validating diversified positioning.Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Whipsawed: Odds of a December cut plunged below 30% before surging back above 80% due to rising unemployment, dovish Fed commentary, and Beige Book labor softness.Reflationary Growth View for 2026: Strong global commodities, resilient demand, and expected Fed easing support the case for reflation rather than recession.Crypto Decouples from Junk Tech: Bitcoin fell sharply while non-profitable tech surged, breaking a correlation that typically signals risk-on/off behavior.AI Spending Cycle Accelerates: Competition among AI leaders is driving massive capital spending—benefiting chipmakers, data centers, and related sectors.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.comHashtags#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketOutlook #FedPolicy #Reflation #InvestmentStrategy #Macroeconomics #FinancialMarkets #YearEndRally

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, sit down with Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, to break down the current cyclical and secular bull markets, how AI compares to past transformative periods, what rising rates have meant for valuations, and why international equities are becoming more attractive. They also touch on the role of gold and Bitcoin, how to think about barbell strategies, and what history teaches about market narratives. Key TakeawaysMarket Setup: Today’s environment features a cyclical bull market on top of a long-running secular bull market, similar to past periods like 1994 and the late 1990s.Interest Rates & Valuations: The 2022 market drop came largely from PE compression as rates jumped from near zero to 5%, while earnings actually grew.Historical Parallels: Timmer highlights similarities between today and both the late 1960s (loose fiscal policy, sticky inflation) and late 1990s (tech-driven excitement).Barbell Approach: A mix of mega-cap leaders and undervalued international equities may help manage concentration risk, especially as Europe and Japan boost payouts and trade at lower valuations.Gold & Bitcoin: Timmer views both as scarce, diversifying assets that hedge against periods when bonds may struggle, especially in potential fiscal-dominance environments.Small Caps vs. Large Caps: Small caps show mixed performance due to both traditional domestic exposure and speculative, unprofitable tech tied to AI.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseConnect with Jurrien Timmer:• LinkedIn: Jurrien Timmer• X: @TimmerFidelityQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.comDisclosure: Jurrien Timmer is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by our guests may not be representative of CWM, LLC.Hashtags#FactsVsFeelings #MarketInsights #InvestingPodcast #MacroOutlook #GlobalMarkets #AssetAllocation #CarsonGroup

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the surge in market volatility and what they believe is truly behind it. They explore shifting rate-cut expectations from the Fed, how mixed economic data is shaping the outlook, and why recent remarks from Fed officials have rattled markets. Ryan and Sonu also break down the sharp risk-off moves in crypto, the resilience of sectors like healthcare and commodities, and more.Key TakeawaysFed Tone Shift: Fed officials struck a more cautious tone after their October meeting, sharply lowering expectations for a December rate cut and contributing to market weakness.Labor Data Uncertainty: With government shutdown-related data gaps, the Fed is flying partially blind, making upcoming payroll numbers pivotal in determining whether cuts resume.Crypto as Risk-Off Signal: Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen steep declines since last month, acting as a clear risk-off indicator and spilling into tech-adjacent equities.Sector Divergence: Healthcare (especially biotech), utilities, and value stocks have held up better during the pullback, while small-cap growth and speculative tech have lagged sharply.Commodities Showing Strength: Despite volatility, key commodities like copper, natural gas, silver, and jet fuel are meaningfully higher year-to-date—signs that global activity is holding up better than headlines suggest.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.comHashtags#FactsVsFeelings #MarketVolatility #FederalReserve #MacroPodcast #InvestingInsights #MarketOutlook #CarsonGroup

Dive into the dynamics of a shifting market as experts analyze the government's planned reopening amidst strong earnings growth. Despite solid economic indicators, consumer sentiment is lagging, revealing a stark contrast between feelings and reality. They debunk the myths of a 'K-shaped economy,' illustrating that perceptions of widening inequality may be exaggerated. With political gridlock often seen as beneficial for stocks, global demand continues to bolster market optimism as they look ahead to 2026.

Exploring the booming S&P 500, hosts discuss its remarkable 23% rally and the historical momentum that often follows. Tech stocks are climbing, with the Magnificent Seven leading the way. Global equity markets are seeing gains too, particularly in Asia. The U.S. economy shows resilience despite the K-shaped narrative, with GDP growth and robust earnings reports. Trade tensions are easing, which may impact tariffs positively. The conversation wraps up with insights on the Federal Reserve’s recent actions and future market implications.

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, hosted a special Halloween livestream featuring Joe Fahmy, Managing Director at Zor Capital, and Warren Pies, Co-Founder and Strategist at 3Fourteen Research. Together they explore what’s driving markets at the end of 2025—from AI-led growth and investor sentiment to fiscal spending, oil, and the broader economic outlook. The result is an entertaining and insightful look at how two veteran strategists interpret this bull market and what it could mean heading into 2026 and beyond.Key TakeawaysJoe Fahmy Segment:Broad-Based Bull Market: Joe sees strength well beyond the “Magnificent 7,” with AI, quantum computing, and clean energy creating multiple growth engines.Adaptability Over Bias: He stresses that successful investors aren’t perma-bulls or perma-bears. They adapt as the data changes.Technical Discipline: Joe relies on the 50-day moving average to define market health. Above it, stay constructive; below it, get defensive.Cautious Sentiment: He notes that many investors remain nervous, which helps sustain the market’s “wall of worry” and supports further upside.AI as the Next Revolution: He predicts the current bull market could extend into 2027 as AI transforms productivity similar to past technological breakthroughs.Warren Pies Segment:Debasement: Warren frames today’s cycle as a shift from deflation fears to worries about fiscal expansion, debt, and currency dilution.Equities as Inflation Hedges: He highlights that S&P 500 earnings have outpaced inflation nearly every year since 2009, proving stocks’ resilience.Energy Outlook: Warren maintains a bearish view on oil, citing signs of oversupply and weakening global demand.Equity and Yield Outlook: He expects modest but positive stock gains through 2026 as yields drift lower and fiscal support remains steady.Economic View: Warren describes the U.S. economy as being in a “muddle-through slowdown,” with government spending and the wealth effect offsetting recession risks.Joe and Warren are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseConnect with Joe Fahmy:• X: @jfahmyConnect with Warren Pies:• LinkedIn: Warren Pies• X: @WarrenPies Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Hashtags#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Markets #Investing #BullMarket #AI #Economy #Inflation #StockMarket #MarketOutlook