Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the surge in market volatility and what they believe is truly behind it. They explore shifting rate-cut expectations from the Fed, how mixed economic data is shaping the outlook, and why recent remarks from Fed officials have rattled markets. Ryan and Sonu also break down the sharp risk-off moves in crypto, the resilience of sectors like healthcare and commodities, and more.Key TakeawaysFed Tone Shift: Fed officials struck a more cautious tone after their October meeting, sharply lowering expectations for a December rate cut and contributing to market weakness.Labor Data Uncertainty: With government shutdown-related data gaps, the Fed is flying partially blind, making upcoming payroll numbers pivotal in determining whether cuts resume.Crypto as Risk-Off Signal: Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen steep declines since last month, acting as a clear risk-off indicator and spilling into tech-adjacent equities.Sector Divergence: Healthcare (especially biotech), utilities, and value stocks have held up better during the pullback, while small-cap growth and speculative tech have lagged sharply.Commodities Showing Strength: Despite volatility, key commodities like copper, natural gas, silver, and jet fuel are meaningfully higher year-to-date—signs that global activity is holding up better than headlines suggest.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.comHashtags#FactsVsFeelings #MarketVolatility #FederalReserve #MacroPodcast #InvestingInsights #MarketOutlook #CarsonGroup

Dive into the dynamics of a shifting market as experts analyze the government's planned reopening amidst strong earnings growth. Despite solid economic indicators, consumer sentiment is lagging, revealing a stark contrast between feelings and reality. They debunk the myths of a 'K-shaped economy,' illustrating that perceptions of widening inequality may be exaggerated. With political gridlock often seen as beneficial for stocks, global demand continues to bolster market optimism as they look ahead to 2026.

Exploring the booming S&P 500, hosts discuss its remarkable 23% rally and the historical momentum that often follows. Tech stocks are climbing, with the Magnificent Seven leading the way. Global equity markets are seeing gains too, particularly in Asia. The U.S. economy shows resilience despite the K-shaped narrative, with GDP growth and robust earnings reports. Trade tensions are easing, which may impact tariffs positively. The conversation wraps up with insights on the Federal Reserve’s recent actions and future market implications.

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, hosted a special Halloween livestream featuring Joe Fahmy, Managing Director at Zor Capital, and Warren Pies, Co-Founder and Strategist at 3Fourteen Research. Together they explore what’s driving markets at the end of 2025—from AI-led growth and investor sentiment to fiscal spending, oil, and the broader economic outlook. The result is an entertaining and insightful look at how two veteran strategists interpret this bull market and what it could mean heading into 2026 and beyond.Key TakeawaysJoe Fahmy Segment:Broad-Based Bull Market: Joe sees strength well beyond the “Magnificent 7,” with AI, quantum computing, and clean energy creating multiple growth engines.Adaptability Over Bias: He stresses that successful investors aren’t perma-bulls or perma-bears. They adapt as the data changes.Technical Discipline: Joe relies on the 50-day moving average to define market health. Above it, stay constructive; below it, get defensive.Cautious Sentiment: He notes that many investors remain nervous, which helps sustain the market’s “wall of worry” and supports further upside.AI as the Next Revolution: He predicts the current bull market could extend into 2027 as AI transforms productivity similar to past technological breakthroughs.Warren Pies Segment:Debasement: Warren frames today’s cycle as a shift from deflation fears to worries about fiscal expansion, debt, and currency dilution.Equities as Inflation Hedges: He highlights that S&P 500 earnings have outpaced inflation nearly every year since 2009, proving stocks’ resilience.Energy Outlook: Warren maintains a bearish view on oil, citing signs of oversupply and weakening global demand.Equity and Yield Outlook: He expects modest but positive stock gains through 2026 as yields drift lower and fiscal support remains steady.Economic View: Warren describes the U.S. economy as being in a “muddle-through slowdown,” with government spending and the wealth effect offsetting recession risks.Joe and Warren are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseConnect with Joe Fahmy:• X: @jfahmyConnect with Warren Pies:• LinkedIn: Warren Pies• X: @WarrenPies Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Hashtags#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Markets #Investing #BullMarket #AI #Economy #Inflation #StockMarket #MarketOutlook

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss why a strong year-end rally may already be underway. They explore the drivers behind market momentum, earnings strength, inflation trends, and the Fed’s next moves, while adding insight, a bit of humor, and practical perspective for investors heading into the final stretch of 2025.Key Takeaways:·       Seasonality on Investors’ Side: November and December have historically been strong months for equities, especially when the S&P 500 is up 15% heading into year-end.·       Resilient Earnings: Nearly 87% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations, one of the strongest showings in years.·       Sentiment Still Skeptical: Surveys continue to show more bears than bulls, but confidence is building as investors look toward a possible year-end rally.·       Inflation Cooling but Sticky: Core CPI rose just 0.23% in September (2.8% annualized), showing progress even as service-sector prices remain firm.·       The Fed Turns Dovish: Rate cuts are expected to continue into 2026, potentially bringing policy below 3%—a setup that has historically supported markets.·       Easing Trade Tensions: U.S.–China progress on tariffs and rare earths adds another macro tailwind to investor confidence.·       Market Breadth: Equal-weight indexes across the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq recently hit all-time highs, showing strength beyond mega-cap tech.DON’T MISS our special Halloween livestream on YouTube starting at 10:30amCT this Friday, October 31, 2025! Click here for more info: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0alr4-vDLK8 Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Hashtags: #FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketRally #InvestingInsights #StockMarket #Inflation #FederalReserve #EarningsSeason #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #WealthManagement   

Kate Hall, VP of Alternative Due Diligence at Carson Group, dives into the evolving world of private credit, which has tripled since 2015. She discusses the importance of due diligence and diversification in navigating potential credit risks, symbolized by the metaphorical 'cockroaches in a bull market.' The conversation highlights gold's recent surge linked to inflation concerns and why strong bank earnings defy broader worries. They also explore the implications of credit market signals and the necessity of vigilance against fraud in private lending.

Summary: In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the renewed tensions between the U.S. and China—what they’re calling “Trade War 3.0.” They break down the latest round of tariffs, China’s restrictions on rare earth exports, and what this means for markets, global trade, and investors. The conversation also touches on October’s trademark market volatility, the three-year anniversary of the current bull market, and Carson Group’s exciting milestone of surpassing $50 billion in assets under management. To wrap up, Ryan and Sonu discuss how AI investments are shaping economic growth and why diversification remains key as the market rides this wave of innovation.Key Takeaways:Trade War 3.0: The China trade war is back, with new tariffs and export restrictions creating fresh market uncertainty.Not a Shock: October remains the most volatile month for markets—current swings are historically typical.The Bull’s Birthday: The three-year bull market continues to show resilience and momentum heading into year four.Massive Impact: AI-related investment is a key driver of GDP growth, fueling spending, innovation, and market optimism.Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick • X: @RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese • X: @SonuVargheseQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you — factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Investing #MarketOutlook #ChinaTradeWar #Tariffs #GlobalMarkets #EconomicTrends #RareEarths #AIMarkets #NVIDIA #OpenAI #StockMarket #FinancialPlanning #MarketInsights

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, tackle the market implications of the ongoing government shutdown, the surge in gold prices, and what investors should expect from the Fed. They also dig into the booming AI investment cycle, shifting momentum across market caps, and why the labor market remains resilient even as hiring slows.Key TakeawaysGold Shines Bright:  Gold has remained on the rise, nearing $4,000 an ounce as central banks buy aggressively and inflation concerns persist.Shutdown, Not Slowdown:  Despite Washington gridlock, the S&P 500 keeps hitting record highs. Historically, markets shrug off shutdowns and focus on Fed policy instead.Rate Cuts Coming:  Fed futures signal multiple cuts starting this fall. Weak hiring but low layoffs point to a cooling, not collapsing, economy.AI Spending Surge:  OpenAI, NVIDIA, AMD, and others are driving a wave of capital investment, with AI-related spending now accounting for roughly 6% of U.S. GDP.Market Momentum Builds:  Strong seasonality, easing rates, and improving earnings expectations set the stage for a solid Q4, even as mid-caps lag under tariff pressure.Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick • X: @RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese • X: @SonuVargheseQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you — factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Gold #FederalReserve #AI #GovernmentShutdown #Investing #StockMarket #WealthManagement #EconomicOutlook #MarketInsights

In this special episode of Facts vs. Feelings, recorded live at Excell 2025 in Phoenix, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, sit down with Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, to discuss gold, crypto, ETFs, and the future of investing. From the history of the first U.S. gold fund to today’s innovations in blockchain, stablecoins, and nuclear energy, Jan shares unique insights into how markets are evolving.Key TakeawaysGold & Bitcoin: Gold remains a global safe haven, while Bitcoin is increasingly seen as “digital gold,” according to Jan.Stablecoins: Potentially revolutionary for payments, creating new competition between banks and tech companies.Macro Trends: The rise of India could reshape global markets, while China’s equity returns remain lackluster.Energy & AI: Nuclear energy is regaining bipartisan support as demand for power surges, particularly from AI growth.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseConnect with Jan van Eck:• LinkedIn: Jan van Eck• X: @JanvanEck3 Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Disclosure: Jan van Eck is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by our guests may not be representative of CWM, LLC.#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Gold #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETFs #Stablecoins #Investing #WealthManagement #MarketInsights 

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, tackle the growing comparisons between today’s market and the 1929 crash. They cut through the noise on gold sentiment, small-cap strength, earnings growth, Fed policy, and consumer resilience—all in under 52 minutes.Key Takeaways1929 comparisons: Why we believe today’s bull market is not a replay of the Great Depression.Gold sentiment: The metal has been a strong diversifier for portfolios so far this year.Small caps: They’re breaking out after nearly four years without new highs.Earnings reporting: The hosts debate quarterly vs. semiannual disclosures after President Trump floated the idea last week.The Fed: What the recent rate cut mean, labor market concerns, and why equities rallied.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvargheseQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#FactsVsFeelings #StockMarket #BullMarket #Gold #SmallCaps #Fed #RetailSales #InvestingPodcast #MarketUpdate