Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Winter Is Here (Ep. 161)

Nov 12, 2025

Dive into the dynamics of a shifting market as experts analyze the government's planned reopening amidst strong earnings growth. Despite solid economic indicators, consumer sentiment is lagging, revealing a stark contrast between feelings and reality. They debunk the myths of a 'K-shaped economy,' illustrating that perceptions of widening inequality may be exaggerated. With political gridlock often seen as beneficial for stocks, global demand continues to bolster market optimism as they look ahead to 2026.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

ANECDOTE

Hosts Compare Winter To Market Mood

Ryan and Sonu open the show by comparing winter weather to market conditions.
Ryan jokes about snow in Cincinnati while Sonu says winter helps him thrive and markets look to be thriving too.

INSIGHT

Gridlock Can Be Bullish For Markets

Split Congress (gridlock) has historically been a positive for stocks by reducing legislative volatility.
Ryan Detrick notes the S&P 500 tends to perform well under split control as spending fights are limited.

ANECDOTE

Travel Anecdote During The Shutdown

Ryan recounts minimal TSA delays during the shutdown and thanks unpaid federal workers.
He reflects on friends' travel problems and applauds TSA and air-traffic staff working without pay.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss how markets are responding to the government’s impending reopening, improving earnings, and shifting political dynamics. They unpack why consumer sentiment remains low despite strong market and economic data, explore the reality behind so-called “K-shaped” growth, and explain why they still see powerful tailwinds for investors heading into 2026.

Key Takeaways

Government Reopening & Market Optimism: Ryan and Sonu expect the government to fully reopen within a week, though they highlight that split power in Congress has often aligned with positive stock performance.
Political Shifts & Gridlock Effect: Off-year elections showed strong results for Democrats, setting up a potential split Congress—an outcome that markets have rewarded in past cycles due to reduced legislative volatility.
Consumer Sentiment vs. Market Reality: Confidence levels remain near historic lows even as inflation cools and the job market holds steady. The hosts argue that perception, not data, is fueling pessimism.
Earnings Strength & Global Tailwinds: S&P 500 earnings growth surged from 7.9% to 13%, with companies generating more than half their revenue abroad leading the way—evidence that global demand continues to support U.S. markets.
Debunking the “K-Shaped Economy” Narrative: Sonu breaks down why claims of widening inequality are overstated, emphasizing that spending patterns and income distribution remain consistent with long-term trends.
Labor Market Stability: Despite attention-grabbing layoff headlines, jobless claims and hiring plans show a resilient labor market, reinforcing the broader theme of economic strength beneath the noise.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags

#FactsVsFeelings #MarketOutlook #InvestingInsights #EconomicUpdate #StockMarket #FinancialPlanning #CarsonGroup