Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Don’t Sleep on Momentum (Ep. 160)

Nov 5, 2025

Exploring the booming S&P 500, hosts discuss its remarkable 23% rally and the historical momentum that often follows. Tech stocks are climbing, with the Magnificent Seven leading the way. Global equity markets are seeing gains too, particularly in Asia. The U.S. economy shows resilience despite the K-shaped narrative, with GDP growth and robust earnings reports. Trade tensions are easing, which may impact tariffs positively. The conversation wraps up with insights on the Federal Reserve’s recent actions and future market implications.

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ANECDOTE

Candy Closet Parenting Joke

Sonu and Ryan joked about stashed Halloween candy and parenting tactics to ration sweets.
The light conversation set a casual tone before diving into market topics.

INSIGHT

Historic Six-Month Momentum

The S&P 500's ~23% six-month gain ranks in the top 4% of all historical six-month returns since 1950.
Historically, strong six-month momentum often leads to further positive returns over the next 3–12 months.

INSIGHT

Tech Dominates Recent Rally

Technology led the rally, with the S&P Technology Index up ~44% over six months while most sectors lagged.
Mega-cap tech (the 'Magnificent Seven') produced outsized gains driving headline indexes higher.

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In the latest episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the powerful role of momentum in today’s markets and what investors should expect heading into year-end. They examine how the S&P 500’s impressive rally fits into historical context, why tech leadership remains dominant, and how market breadth and global participation are evolving. The conversation also explores the impact of Federal Reserve policy shifts, cooling trade tensions, and the surprising resilience of the U.S. economy.

Key Takeaways

Historic Market Strength: The S&P 500 has gained nearly 23% over the past six months, placing this move in the top 4% of all six-month returns. History shows that strong momentum often leads to continued upside in the following year.
Tech-Driven Leadership: The recent rally has been powered largely by technology. The Magnificent Seven continue to dominate, with the S&P 500 Technology Index up 44% over six months.
Global Momentum: It’s not just the U.S.—developed and emerging markets are rallying too. South Korea, Taiwan, and China are leading EM gains, while countries like South Africa, Mexico, and Japan also show strong performance.
Economic Resilience: Despite talk of a “K-shaped” economy, U.S. GDP growth remains near 2%. Earnings are rising across sectors, with 80% of companies beating on both revenue and profits.
Trade Tensions Easing: The U.S.–China trade war appears to be cooling, with both sides de-escalating tariffs and trade restrictions. China is resuming soybean purchases and suspending certain export controls, while the U.S. has paused new restrictions—reducing a major geopolitical headwind.
Fed’s Delicate Balance: The Federal Reserve cut rates again, bringing total cuts to 150 basis points since the cycle’s peak. While inflation remains a concern for some members, Powell’s comments suggested a dovish tone, emphasizing that inflation pressures are manageable and economic momentum remains intact.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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