Shutdown…But Not Out (Ep. 156)

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, tackle the market implications of the ongoing government shutdown, the surge in gold prices, and what investors should expect from the Fed. They also dig into the booming AI investment cycle, shifting momentum across market caps, and why the labor market remains resilient even as hiring slows.

Key Takeaways

• Gold Shines Bright:  Gold has remained on the rise, nearing $4,000 an ounce as central banks buy aggressively and inflation concerns persist.
• Shutdown, Not Slowdown:  Despite Washington gridlock, the S&P 500 keeps hitting record highs. Historically, markets shrug off shutdowns and focus on Fed policy instead.
• Rate Cuts Coming:  Fed futures signal multiple cuts starting this fall. Weak hiring but low layoffs point to a cooling, not collapsing, economy.
• AI Spending Surge:  OpenAI, NVIDIA, AMD, and others are driving a wave of capital investment, with AI-related spending now accounting for roughly 6% of U.S. GDP.
• Market Momentum Builds:  Strong seasonality, easing rates, and improving earnings expectations set the stage for a solid Q4, even as mid-caps lag under tariff pressure.

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: @RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: @SonuVarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you — factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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