China Global

Da Wei, a leading Chinese scholar of international security and U.S.-China relations at Tsinghua University, assesses the latest Trump-Xi summit. They examine competing visions of strategic stability, the impact of personal diplomacy, fragile efforts to stabilize ties, and missing communication channels. The conversation also explores military crisis prevention, Taiwan’s 2028 elections, and prospects for progress on trade, AI, Ukraine, and regional security.

Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, Chinese foreign policy has become significantly more assertive. More than a decade ago, Xi moved away from Deng Xiaoping's approach of "hiding capabilities and biding time" and embraced what he calls “great power diplomacy with Chinese characteristics.” Since then, China has adopted a more assertive presence on the world stage, placed greater emphasis on relations with the Global South, taken a tougher approach toward Taiwan, and reorganized its foreign policy apparatus around Xi’s personal leadership and priorities. Understanding this transformation – and more fundamentally, understanding what Beijing wants – has become a central question for China-watchers and policy makers. What are China’s ambitions as it emerges as a global superpower? A new book offers an answer that differs in important ways from many previous analyses. The book is titled “China's Global Strategy Under Xi Jinping.”  Its co-authors are Steve Tsang, Professor of China Studies and Director of the China Institute of the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London and Olivia Cheung, a Lecturer in Politics at King’s College London. On this episode, we have Steve Tsang with us today to discuss the book, his assessment of China’s global ambitions under Xi Jinping, and what those ambitions mean for policymakers.   Timestamps: [00:00] Introduction [01:52] A Sinocentric Party-State Realist Analytical Framework  [07:14] Tianxia in Chinese Foreign Policy [09:45] Xi Jinping’s Growing Ambitions  [13:42] The Role of the Global South  [16:59] What Accepting Chinese Preeminence Looks Like  [19:57] Taiwan and the China Dream  [25:48] China First Policy as a Hindrance? [28:25] Using the Built-In Stop Button

Artificial intelligence is emerging as both a powerful source of competition between the United States and China and an area where the two countries may have a shared interest in reducing risk. Washington and Beijing have sharply different views about technology, national security, and governance, yet they also face some of the same potential dangers from increasingly capable AI systems—from cyberattacks and biological threats to unintended escalation and the loss of human control over critical decisions.   With U.S.-China talks on AI expected to take place ahead of the Trump-Xi summit later this month, a pressing question is whether the two countries can carve out practical areas of cooperation even as they compete intensely over the technology itself. What could realistically be achieved in those talks, where do American and Chinese concerns about AI risks converge or diverge, and can the two sides keep discussions about risk reduction separate from the broader struggle over technology and export controls?  To unpack those objectives and what a credible outcome might look like, we are joined by Mark MacCarthy. Mark is a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in the Governance Studies program's Center for Technology Innovation and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University, where he teaches on the governance of emerging technology, AI ethics, and privacy. He is the author of Regulating Digital Industries: How Public Oversight Can Encourage Competition, Protect Privacy, and Ensure Free Speech. He also recently co-authored an article on how the US and China can cooperate to reduce urgent AI risks, which you can find on the Brookings website.  Timestamps:  [00:00] Introduction  [02:17] The Need for US-China AI Cooperation and Risks  [04:32] Converging on AI Risk Reduction  [07:18] Setting Guardrails Amidst Competition   [10:14] World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation  [13:33] Trump-Xi Talks: A Technical Exchange  [18:31] Who Needs To Be At the Table   [21:25] Low Hanging Fruit for Cooperation  [24:39] Assessing Bill Gates’ Recommendations   [28:30] Different Approaches to Technology and Governance   

Thirty years ago, the People's Republic of China ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Since then, Beijing has frequently invoked UNCLOS to support its maritime claims and legal positions, while advancing interpretations of the Convention that many other states –but not all – reject.  This June the China Institute for Marine Affairs under the Ministry of Natural Resources marked the 30-year anniversary with an extensive report providing Beijing's interpretation of UNCLOS, including its account of the 2016 arbitral award that found China’s expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea as lacking a legal basis under the Convention.  To examine the PRC’s evolving interpretation of UNCLOS and Chinese maritime activities, and how both are being used to advance Chinese interests, I’m joined today by Dr. Peter Dutton. Peter is a Senior Research Scholar in law and senior fellow in the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School. Previously, he held several positions at the U.S. Naval War College, including as director of the China Maritime Studies Institute. He served in the US Navy for more than 40 years in several capacities, including as a Judge Advocate and naval flight officer.   Timestamps:  [00:00] Introduction  [01:45] UNCLOS and China’s Approach to International Law   [04:48] Favorable Interpretations of UNCLOS for China  [07:07] Unpacking Wu Shicun’s Comments on Future Construction  [10:47] Capitalizing versus Defending Interests  [16:56] Potential Deterrence Options for the US and Allies  [19:14] Renegotiating the Law of the Sea Convention?   [22:45] Updated Arguments to the 2016 Ruling   [25:50] China’s Strategy and Relying on Power  [29:03] Indicators and Actions to Watch For   

Evan Medeiros, a Georgetown China policy expert and former National Security Council director, outlines China’s expanding toolkit of economic statecraft. He explains how Beijing links market access, supply chains, and legal measures to influence others. He traces the shift from inducements to coercion and discusses rare earths, export controls, and strategies to shape China’s choices.

Noah Barkin, Visiting Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund and Senior Advisor at Rhodium Group, tracks Europe–China relations and economic policy. He discusses Europe’s surging trade deficit with China and the political shock it caused. He explains the European Council’s push for new tools, the new trade and investment dialogue, shifting German rhetoric, and how transatlantic tensions are reshaping Europe’s approach.

Collin Koh, a maritime security scholar at Nanyang Technological University, discusses China's stepped‑up coast guard and militia actions. He explores renewed island construction, strategic uses of Antelope Reef and Scarborough Shoal, and China’s legal and administrative moves to cement claims. He also examines how deeper US‑Philippine ties and regional responses are reshaping behavior in the waters.

Sarah Beran, former NSC senior director for China and Taiwan and ex-deputy chief of mission in Beijing, breaks down the Trump-Xi summit. She explains how preparations differed, what was missing from the short itinerary, and the contrasting U.S. and Chinese objectives. Discussions cover Xi’s framing of strategic stability, Iran and North Korea takeaways, and the risks around Taiwan messaging and a potential presidential call.

Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a CFR senior fellow who studies international political economy and China’s global financial strategy. She discusses why Beijing pushes the renminbi abroad. Short takes cover offshore RMB markets, swap lines and bilateral trade settlement, commodity and clean‑energy pricing in RMB, and the obstacles to the currency becoming a true global reserve.

Andrew Scobell, a China and Korea specialist and Georgetown adjunct professor, explains why Beijing and Pyongyang are reconnecting. He discusses China’s strategic aims on the peninsula. He examines drivers like COVID fallout, concern about Russia’s influence, and shifts in public diplomacy. He outlines China’s changing emphasis on denuclearization and what stabilized ties mean for US-China dynamics.