China Global

China’s ties with Southeast Asia states are increasingly consequential for regional stability and global geopolitics. Over the past two decades, China has become the region’s largest trading partner and a major source of investment and infrastructure financing. At the same time, China growing military presence and aggressive behavior in the South China Sea have caused anxiety and have prompted a number of Southeast Asian nations to seek closer security ties with the United States and other partners.  The Trump administration’s policies of imposing tariffs, reducing foreign assistance, and implementing stricter immigration regulations have begun to erode US influence across the region, further encouraging Southeast Asian countries to rely on each other and to diversify their relationships with external partners.    To discuss Beijing’s evolving approach to Southeast Asia and the efficacy of its policies, we are joined on the podcast today by Dr. Chong Ja Ian. He is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the National University of Singapore and a nonresident fellow at Carnegie China. Ian’s research focuses on Chinese politics, foreign policy, and US-China relations. Timestamps[00:00] Intro[01:50] China’s Tools and Objectives in SEA[03:02] Economic Relations with SEA[05:52] Success and Failures of Beijing’s SEA Strategy[07:47] Regional Media and Influence[11:40] SEA Views on China: Consensus and Discord[14:55] Regional Strategy Post-Trump[18:22] SEA Reactions to China Taking Taiwan by Force[22:40] Crisis Planning and How it Could Change[24:10] Long-Term Outlooks for China-SEA Relations 

In mid-September, while many China watchers were focused on the Xiangshan Forum, the Chinese military’s annual high-level security and defense convening in Beijing, another major annual meeting was being held by the Ministry of Public Security in the Chinese city of Lianyungang (2-2-3). The Lianyungang Forum dates to 2015 but was upgraded and renamed the Global Public Security Cooperation Forum in 2022 following Xi Jinping’s launch of the Global Security Initiative. This year it was attended by 2,000 participants from 120 countries, regions and international organizations. The theme was “Shaping Global Public Security Together: United Action to Tackle Diverse Threats.”  As Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong made clear in his opening speech, China is advancing an alternative to the western-led security order. Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens is a leading expert on Beijing’s push to reshape the global security order and promote China as a model and global security provider to developing countries. Sheena is an associate professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin where she directs UT’s Asia Policy Program and serves as editor-in-chief of the Texas National Security Review. She is also a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment of International Peace, and a visiting associate professor of research in Indo-Pacific security at the China Landpower Studies Center of the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute. Relevant to this episode’s discussion, Sheena recently published a co-authored report for the Carnegie Endowment of International Peace Carnegie titled “A New World Cop.” Timestamps:  [00:00] Start [02:30] The Global Security Initiative and Xi Jinping’s Grand Strategy [05:22] Outcomes of the Global Public Security Cooperation Forum  [08:50] What Do Participant Countries Gain?  [12:23] How Do Recipient Countries Use Chinese Technologies?  [16:12] Countries Rejecting China's Surveillance Technologies  [21:49] China’s Rewriting of Global Norms [28:18] Potential Policy Responses to the GSI 

Since 1951, when Tibet was formally annexed into the People’s Republic of China, Tibet has been a battleground between China’s efforts to assert control and the Tibetan people’s struggle to preserve their cultural and religious identity. This past August, Xi Jinping made a surprise visit to Tibet, his second since becoming China’s top leader in 2012. Less than two months earlier, the Dalai Lama, now 90 years old, announced that his office, not China, would choose his successor when he passes. A few months before that, the Dalai Lama revealed in a memoir that he would reincarnate outside of China. The PRC insists that the next incarnation – the 15th Dalai Lama – will be born inside PRC territory and approved by the Chinese government. What are Beijing’s interests in Tibet and how has Xi Jinping pursued them since coming to power? What is likely to occur after the Dalai Lama’s passing? I’m delighted to have as my guest today Tendor Dorjee. Tendor is an adjunct assistant professor of political science at Columbia University, a senior researcher at the Tibet Action Institute, and the inaugural Stephanie G Neuman Fellow at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies. He recently co-authored an article in Foreign Affairs titled Beijing’s Dangerous Game in Tibet”.Timestamps[00:00] Start [02:08] Beijing’s Key Interests in Tibet [04:06] Xi Jinping’s Approach to Tibet [07:00] Internal and External Drivers of Tibet Policy [08:08] Xi’s Recent Visit to Tibet [11:34] Infrastructure Developments and Expansionism  [15:27] Beijing’s Succession Plans and Tibetan Reactions to a Future Dalai Lama [20:27] Risk of Unrest and Crackdowns [25:43] Implications for Neighboring States 

The United States and China are locked in a race for dominance in artificial intelligence, including its applications and diffusion. American and Chinese AI firms like OpenAI and DeepSeek respectively have captured global attention and major companies like Google and Microsoft have been actively investing in AI development. While the US currently boasts world-leading AI models, China is ahead in some areas of AI research and application. With the release of US and Chinese AI action plans in July, we may be on the cusp of a new phase in US-China AI competition.Why is AI so important for a country’s global influence? What are the strengths of China’s AI strategy? And what does China’s new AI action plan tell us about its AI ambitions? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Owen Daniels. Owen is the Associate Director of Analysis at Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology and a Non-Resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council. His recently published article in Foreign Affairs co-authored with Hanna Dohmen -- titled China’s Overlooked AI Strategy -- provides insights into how Beijing is utilizing AI to gain global dominance and what the US can and should do to sustain and bolster its lead.Timestamps[00:00] Start [02:05] US Policy Risks to Chinese AI Leadership [05:28] Deepseek and Kimi’s Newest Models  [07:54] US vs. China’s Approach to AI [10:42] Limitations to China’s AI Strategy  [13:08] Using AI as a Soft Power Tool  [16:10] AI Action Plans  [19:34] Trump’s Approach to AI Competition [22:30] Can China Lead Global AI Governance?  [25:10] Evolving US Policy for Open Models

Scott Kennedy, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, dives deep into the tumultuous waters of US-China trade relations. He discusses the lessons learned from the Trump administration and how they shape ongoing negotiations. Kennedy assesses who's truly winning the trade war and explores China's strategic use of rare earth commodities amidst tariffs. The conversation also unpacks the intricate issues surrounding transshipment and market access as both nations navigate their complex economic relationship.

South Korea and China have a complex relationship characterized by economic interdependence, strategic competition, and regional security concerns. Navigating this delicate balance has been a defining challenge for every South Korean president. Newly elected President Lee Jae Myung has assumed power at a time of increasing US-China strategic competition as well as uncertain global supply chains and growing threat from North Korea. Could this new administration mark a shift in Seoul’s approach to Beijing? Or will President Lee maintain strategies similar to that of President Yoon?To discuss ROK-China relations, and President Lee’s approach to this intricate issue, we are joined on the podcast today by Dr. Ramon Pacheco-Pardo. He is a professor of international relations at King’s College London and the KF-VUB Korea Chair at the Center for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy in the Brussels School of Governance. He is also an adjunct fellow with the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the author of several books on the domestic affairs and foreign policy of South and North Korea.  Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:44] “[P]ragmatic diplomacy centered on national interests”[05:06] State of Play for Sino-South Korean Relations[09:56] Balancing Between the United States and China[14:47] China Taking Advantage of US-ROK Frictions [19:03] Economic Interdependence as a Leverage[25:39] Xi Jinping Attending APEC South Korea 2025[31:11] American Pressure on Allies to Protect Taiwan

On June 13th, Israel launched attacks on several military and nuclear facilities in Iran, marking the beginning of a 12-day war between the two countries. The United States followed with targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear sites to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power and posing a threat to regional and global stability. China’s involvement in the conflict was limited to condemning the Israeli and US use of military force and calling for de-escalation. Beijing offered only rhetorical support for Tehran. To discuss what the Israel-Iran war reveals about China’s relationship with Iran, its evolving strategy in the Middle East, and the broader implications for US-China competition, we are joined by Yun Sun on the podcast today. Yun is a Senior Fellow, co-Director of the East Asia Program and Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center. Her recent piece in The Wire China entitled “How China Sees Iran’s Future” offers provides a nuanced take on Beijing’s calculus during and after the war. Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:34] China’s Diplomatic Strategy Toward the Middle East[05:00] A Limited Chinese Response and China’s Regional Role[08:19] Chinese Perceptions of Iran’s External Strategic Blunders[15:00] Trickling Chinese Investment into Iran[20:10] Chinese Concerns About a Nuclearized Iran[25:09] Implications of the Israel-Iran War for China’s Energy Security[32:04] Trump’s Response Shaping Chinese Views of the United States 

In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. China has never condemned the invasion, and its government and media have carefully avoided using term “Ukraine War,” opting instead to refer to the war as the “Ukraine crisis,” the “Russia-Ukraine conflict,” or the “special military operation,” a term that echoes Moscow’s language. Beijing’s approach to the Ukraine War has included support for Russia, a commitment China’s own principles, including respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and a professed desire for peace.This episode’s discussion will focus on China’s evolving posture toward the war and China’s relationship with Ukraine. Joining the podcast this episode is Dr. Vita Golod, who is a Junior Research Fellow at the A. Yu Krymskyi Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy Sciences of Ukraine, and a Visiting Adjunct Instructor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.She is also the co-founder of the Ukrainian Platform for Contemporary China and a board member of the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists.  Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:35] China’s Relationship with Ukraine Prior to Russia’s Invasion[05:06] President Zelenskyy’s Accusations Against China [08:20] Contemporary Ukrainian Perceptions of Relations with China [12:14] Ukrainian Perceptions of Sino-Russian Relations[16:25] China as a Mediator and Peacemaker[19:06] China’s Interests in the Outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian War[21:21] What concrete steps could China take to facilitate peace? [23:14] China’s Role in the Post-War Reconstruction of Ukraine[28:08] The Future of Sino-Ukrainian Relations

On April 22, 2025, gunmen in the town of Pahalgam, located in the disputed region of Kashmir, killed 26 people—mostly Indian tourists. A four-day military clash between India and Pakistan ensued, bringing both countries to the brink of a full-blown war, before a ceasefire was reached on May 10, 2025. During the India-Pakistan clashes, Beijing urged both sides to deescalate and called for a “political settlement through peaceful means.” But China did not play a neutral role in the conflict. Consistent with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s purported statement to his Pakistani counterpart that “China fully understands Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns and supports Pakistan in safeguarding its sovereignty and security interests,” China reportedly provided intelligence, satellite equipment, and other forms of support to Pakistan before and during the clashes.To analyze China’s role in the conflict, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Andrew Small. Andrew is a senior transatlantic fellow with GMF’s Indo-Pacific program, and author of two books on China, including “The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia’s New Geopolitics,” which is now ten years old, but remains an insightful and relevant study. Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:46] China’s Diplomatic Response to the India-Pakistan Clashes[05:58] Beijing’s Offer of Playing a “Constructive Role”[10:56] A Testing Ground for Chinese Weaponry and Equipment[14:03] China’s Cautious Approach to Sino-Indian Relations[18:10] Military Support and the Sino-Pakistan Relationship[23:44] Implications for Chinese Arms Exports[26:27] Indian and Pakistani Assessments of Chinese Involvement[30:06] Influence of US-China Rivalry on India-Pakistan Relations

The United States and China reached a 90-day truce in the trade war when their representatives met in Geneva in early May. Both sides agreed to temporarily roll back tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers. President Trump announced that a “total reset” in US-China relations had been achieved. Beyond the hyperbole, the two sides agreed to establish a mechanism on economics and trade and launch negotiations to address trade imbalances and other problems. Whether a deal is reached, what it might look like, and what it might include, remains to be seen. The future trajectory of US-China relations, overall, is still unclear.This episode highlights a Chinese perspective on the US-China bilateral relationship, including on the recent trade talks and the factors that will influence US-China relations going forward. Sun Chenghao, a fellow and head of the U.S.-Europe program at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS), and council member of the Chinese Association of American Studies joins host Bonnie Glaser for this episode.  Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:39] What does Trump want from China? [04:29] What view does Dr. Sun hold?[05:00] Assessing the US-China Geneva Talks[09:21] Feasibility of a Broad US-China Trade Deal[13:23] Implications of Trump’s “Unification” Comment[16:46] Importance of the Strategic Channel[20:47] Declining America, Rising China[23:27] Shift in US Policy Toward Alliances[27:49] The Future of US-China Relations