China Global

The United States and China are locked in a race for dominance in artificial intelligence, including its applications and diffusion. American and Chinese AI firms like OpenAI and DeepSeek respectively have captured global attention and major companies like Google and Microsoft have been actively investing in AI development. While the US currently boasts world-leading AI models, China is ahead in some areas of AI research and application. With the release of US and Chinese AI action plans in July, we may be on the cusp of a new phase in US-China AI competition.Why is AI so important for a country’s global influence? What are the strengths of China’s AI strategy? And what does China’s new AI action plan tell us about its AI ambitions? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Owen Daniels. Owen is the Associate Director of Analysis at Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology and a Non-Resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council. His recently published article in Foreign Affairs co-authored with Hanna Dohmen -- titled China’s Overlooked AI Strategy -- provides insights into how Beijing is utilizing AI to gain global dominance and what the US can and should do to sustain and bolster its lead.Timestamps[00:00] Start [02:05] US Policy Risks to Chinese AI Leadership [05:28] Deepseek and Kimi’s Newest Models  [07:54] US vs. China’s Approach to AI [10:42] Limitations to China’s AI Strategy  [13:08] Using AI as a Soft Power Tool  [16:10] AI Action Plans  [19:34] Trump’s Approach to AI Competition [22:30] Can China Lead Global AI Governance?  [25:10] Evolving US Policy for Open Models

Scott Kennedy, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, dives deep into the tumultuous waters of US-China trade relations. He discusses the lessons learned from the Trump administration and how they shape ongoing negotiations. Kennedy assesses who's truly winning the trade war and explores China's strategic use of rare earth commodities amidst tariffs. The conversation also unpacks the intricate issues surrounding transshipment and market access as both nations navigate their complex economic relationship.

South Korea and China have a complex relationship characterized by economic interdependence, strategic competition, and regional security concerns. Navigating this delicate balance has been a defining challenge for every South Korean president. Newly elected President Lee Jae Myung has assumed power at a time of increasing US-China strategic competition as well as uncertain global supply chains and growing threat from North Korea. Could this new administration mark a shift in Seoul’s approach to Beijing? Or will President Lee maintain strategies similar to that of President Yoon?To discuss ROK-China relations, and President Lee’s approach to this intricate issue, we are joined on the podcast today by Dr. Ramon Pacheco-Pardo. He is a professor of international relations at King’s College London and the KF-VUB Korea Chair at the Center for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy in the Brussels School of Governance. He is also an adjunct fellow with the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the author of several books on the domestic affairs and foreign policy of South and North Korea.  Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:44] “[P]ragmatic diplomacy centered on national interests”[05:06] State of Play for Sino-South Korean Relations[09:56] Balancing Between the United States and China[14:47] China Taking Advantage of US-ROK Frictions [19:03] Economic Interdependence as a Leverage[25:39] Xi Jinping Attending APEC South Korea 2025[31:11] American Pressure on Allies to Protect Taiwan

On June 13th, Israel launched attacks on several military and nuclear facilities in Iran, marking the beginning of a 12-day war between the two countries. The United States followed with targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear sites to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power and posing a threat to regional and global stability. China’s involvement in the conflict was limited to condemning the Israeli and US use of military force and calling for de-escalation. Beijing offered only rhetorical support for Tehran. To discuss what the Israel-Iran war reveals about China’s relationship with Iran, its evolving strategy in the Middle East, and the broader implications for US-China competition, we are joined by Yun Sun on the podcast today. Yun is a Senior Fellow, co-Director of the East Asia Program and Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center. Her recent piece in The Wire China entitled “How China Sees Iran’s Future” offers provides a nuanced take on Beijing’s calculus during and after the war. Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:34] China’s Diplomatic Strategy Toward the Middle East[05:00] A Limited Chinese Response and China’s Regional Role[08:19] Chinese Perceptions of Iran’s External Strategic Blunders[15:00] Trickling Chinese Investment into Iran[20:10] Chinese Concerns About a Nuclearized Iran[25:09] Implications of the Israel-Iran War for China’s Energy Security[32:04] Trump’s Response Shaping Chinese Views of the United States 

In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. China has never condemned the invasion, and its government and media have carefully avoided using term “Ukraine War,” opting instead to refer to the war as the “Ukraine crisis,” the “Russia-Ukraine conflict,” or the “special military operation,” a term that echoes Moscow’s language. Beijing’s approach to the Ukraine War has included support for Russia, a commitment China’s own principles, including respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and a professed desire for peace.This episode’s discussion will focus on China’s evolving posture toward the war and China’s relationship with Ukraine. Joining the podcast this episode is Dr. Vita Golod, who is a Junior Research Fellow at the A. Yu Krymskyi Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy Sciences of Ukraine, and a Visiting Adjunct Instructor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.She is also the co-founder of the Ukrainian Platform for Contemporary China and a board member of the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists.  Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:35] China’s Relationship with Ukraine Prior to Russia’s Invasion[05:06] President Zelenskyy’s Accusations Against China [08:20] Contemporary Ukrainian Perceptions of Relations with China [12:14] Ukrainian Perceptions of Sino-Russian Relations[16:25] China as a Mediator and Peacemaker[19:06] China’s Interests in the Outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian War[21:21] What concrete steps could China take to facilitate peace? [23:14] China’s Role in the Post-War Reconstruction of Ukraine[28:08] The Future of Sino-Ukrainian Relations

On April 22, 2025, gunmen in the town of Pahalgam, located in the disputed region of Kashmir, killed 26 people—mostly Indian tourists. A four-day military clash between India and Pakistan ensued, bringing both countries to the brink of a full-blown war, before a ceasefire was reached on May 10, 2025. During the India-Pakistan clashes, Beijing urged both sides to deescalate and called for a “political settlement through peaceful means.” But China did not play a neutral role in the conflict. Consistent with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s purported statement to his Pakistani counterpart that “China fully understands Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns and supports Pakistan in safeguarding its sovereignty and security interests,” China reportedly provided intelligence, satellite equipment, and other forms of support to Pakistan before and during the clashes.To analyze China’s role in the conflict, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Andrew Small. Andrew is a senior transatlantic fellow with GMF’s Indo-Pacific program, and author of two books on China, including “The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia’s New Geopolitics,” which is now ten years old, but remains an insightful and relevant study. Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:46] China’s Diplomatic Response to the India-Pakistan Clashes[05:58] Beijing’s Offer of Playing a “Constructive Role”[10:56] A Testing Ground for Chinese Weaponry and Equipment[14:03] China’s Cautious Approach to Sino-Indian Relations[18:10] Military Support and the Sino-Pakistan Relationship[23:44] Implications for Chinese Arms Exports[26:27] Indian and Pakistani Assessments of Chinese Involvement[30:06] Influence of US-China Rivalry on India-Pakistan Relations

The United States and China reached a 90-day truce in the trade war when their representatives met in Geneva in early May. Both sides agreed to temporarily roll back tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers. President Trump announced that a “total reset” in US-China relations had been achieved. Beyond the hyperbole, the two sides agreed to establish a mechanism on economics and trade and launch negotiations to address trade imbalances and other problems. Whether a deal is reached, what it might look like, and what it might include, remains to be seen. The future trajectory of US-China relations, overall, is still unclear.This episode highlights a Chinese perspective on the US-China bilateral relationship, including on the recent trade talks and the factors that will influence US-China relations going forward. Sun Chenghao, a fellow and head of the U.S.-Europe program at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS), and council member of the Chinese Association of American Studies joins host Bonnie Glaser for this episode.  Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:39] What does Trump want from China? [04:29] What view does Dr. Sun hold?[05:00] Assessing the US-China Geneva Talks[09:21] Feasibility of a Broad US-China Trade Deal[13:23] Implications of Trump’s “Unification” Comment[16:46] Importance of the Strategic Channel[20:47] Declining America, Rising China[23:27] Shift in US Policy Toward Alliances[27:49] The Future of US-China Relations

Gracelin Baskaran, a mining economist and director of the Critical Minerals Security Program, delves into the critical minerals market and China's overwhelming dominance. She discusses the vital role of these minerals in key industries and how U.S. dependency on China jeopardizes national security. Baskaran highlights China's recent export restrictions and the challenges faced by the U.S. in establishing alternative suppliers. She also outlines strategies for enhancing U.S. competitiveness in mineral sourcing and processing amid a manipulated global market.

This episode of the China Global podcast discusses evolving disputes between China and South Korea, specifically regarding their unresolved maritime boundary in the Yellow Sea. There is a long history of fishing disputes between the two countries in the Provisional Measures Zone (or PMZ) of the Yellow Sea, which is where their exclusive economic zones overlap. Although China and South Korea have engaged in negotiations over the years, they have yet to come to an agreement on their boundaries in the Yellow Sea.Taking advantage of the persisting disagreement on delimitation of maritime borders, China has employed gray zone tactics in the Yellow Sea to expand its territorial presence in the region. In the most recent dispute, China installed a new steel structure in the PMZ, causing a maritime standoff between Chinese and Korean coast guards.To discuss recent developments in the Yellow Sea and China’s broader gray zone tactics in the maritime realm, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Ray Powell, the Director of SeaLight, a maritime transparency project at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation. Ray is also the co-host of the Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific podcast, and a 35-year veteran of the US Air Force. Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:43] Strategic Significance of the Yellow Sea[03:12] Expanding Chinese Control in the Region[04:08] Chinese Maritime Installations [05:20] Are these installations found in other regions?[06:00] Gray Zone Tactics in the South China Sea [08:20] Maritime Militia Activity in the Yellow Sea[09:02] 2001 Korea-China Fisheries Agreement[10:34] Testing the Waters with South Korea[12:09] Navigating South Korean Policy Dilemmas[13:48] Rehabilitating China’s Imagine in Korea[15:14] Environmental Issues in Disputed Waters[17:18] Countering Chinese Activities in the Yellow Sea[19:40] SeaLight Tracking and Deciphering Chinese Actions

As China’s military capabilities expand, US-China frictions intensify, and regional tensions increase, concern is on the rise that a potential crisis, either accidental or deliberate, could take place that could spiral out of control. If a crisis arises with China, leaders may want to de-escalate and prevent a wider conflict. To do so, they will need to understand how China thinks about crisis management and escalation.The guest for this episode has dug into the writings of PLA strategists and authoritative PRC sources as well as Western scholarship to assess how China views military escalation and how the US and other countries can accurately predict and interpret PRC signal in crisis scenarios.Lyle Morris is a Senior Fellow on Foreign Policy and National Security at the Center for China Analysis at the Asia Society Policy Institute. His recently published paper is titled “China’s Views on Escalation and Crisis Management and Implications for the United States.” Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:37] Methodology and Authoritative Chinese Sources[04:17] PLA Theories and Concepts of Managing Escalation[06:00] Controlling All Facets of Military Escalation[10:28] Doctrine of Seizing the Initiative[15:21] First Use of Force and a Reluctance to Use Force[19:37] American and Chinese Considerations of Misperception[25:46] Utility of US-China Tabletop Exercises[28:33] Predicting a Taiwan Contingency