The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

In Part 2 of this Frankly Series, Nate breaks down why energy - and specifically oil - is currently the central foundation of our entire modern economic system. There are ecological and energetic laws that apply to all life, including humans and our economies. By accessing a huge surplus of dense carbon energy in the form of fossil sunlight, we’ve effectively turbo-boosted our economies, populations, and material wealth - but what happens if this fossil abundance were to go away? What are the systemic implications of an economy tethered to growth, tethered to carbon? Is it even possible for us to choose to stop using oil? How do these complex constraints on our global systems affect the options - and most likely outcomes - in a future with declining oil availability and rising climate insecurity? For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/39-just-stop-oil-part-2-oil-is-the-economy To Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/-585aVUNz68

On this episode, Nate is joined by climate and policy scientist Roger Pielke Jr. to discuss the progression of climate research and modeling. The climate activist community is based around projections of what a future might look like given the actions of society - an important tool in the push for urgent climate action. Yet, just like with any other model, the assumptions and parameters can greatly shape the outcomes. How has climate science been shaped by previous models and public perception? How did 2Cº come to be our common climate goal post? Are we anticipating the future within the most likely range of possibilities, or are we polarizing ourselves to the extremes of climate denial and climate doom? About Roger Pielke Jr. Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. is a professor at the University of Colorado where he teaches environmental science and policy. A lifetime scholar with many interests, Roger researches and writes on subjects from understanding the politicization of science to decision making under uncertainty to policy education for scientists in areas such as climate change, disaster mitigation, and world trade. His most recent book, The Rightful Place of Science: Disasters and Climate Change takes a deeper look at the IPCC and climate science and how it is being interpreted in the media. Roger also oversees a popular Substack - The Honest Broker - where he is experimenting with a new approach to research, writing and public engagement. Roger holds degrees in mathematics, public policy and political science, all from the University of Colorado Boulder. For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/81-roger-pielke To watch this video episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/T6Nx4SYZIvQ

In this week’s Frankly, Nate expands upon something he finds himself saying more frequently these days; ”what scares me the most is…”.  From the likelihood of nuclear war to how our human in/action harms innocent animals, Nate opens up about his personal list of deepest fears. Contrasting his childhood fear of [harmless] spiders against his current fear of humans’ propensity towards [what is now existential] apathy as we face the metacrisis, Nate reminds us how much more complex our lives are in 2023. Can we be courageous and face our own fears head on, rather than feeling paralyzed by them?  For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/38-the-7-things-that-scare-me-most Watch on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psWmpCOvvmg&t=2s  

On this episode, Nate is joined by recent Stanford graduate and biophysical researcher Taimur Ahmad to discuss energy inequality within and across nations. Taimur offers a unique perspective as someone who has spent years studying the issues of the polycrisis, while also having experience growing up in Pakistan and living in the United States. How does the culture of a nation and its access to energy interrelate to create huge differences in the daily lives of the people who live there? How do the looming implications of climate change and energy depletion impact the relationship between the Global North and the Global South? And how do issues of class, wealth, and ‘fictitious capital’ interplay with the larger poly-crisis at hand? About Taimur Ahmad Taimur Ahmad is the author of the Fictitious Capital newsletter where he writes about understanding the base layer of the global system: money/finance, energy, and raw materials. He studied economics at Georgetown University in Qatar and recently completed a graduate degree from Stanford University where he focused on energy policy and electricity markets. After working in agricultural development in Pakistan, he worked in the Middle East supporting clients across energy, CP&I, and national development. From these experiences, he realized the importance of reframing contemporary socioeconomic issues in an energy and ecological systems framework. His work is now focused on exploring the intersection of development in the Global South, degrowth/post-growth, MMT, and leftist social theory. To watch this video episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/4hzDKA0aNJk For show notes, and more information: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/80-taimur-ahmad 

In this must watch Frankly, Nate illustrates how a reduction in the demand for gasoline will not - as commonly believed  - result in a 1:1 reduction in the demand for oil. This is contrary to a widespread perception, which much growth in the Electric Vehicle industry has been based on, about the correlation between a decline in gasoline usage resulting in an overall decline in oil production and CO2 emissions. While a significant portion of oil refining results in gasoline, we need to be aware of modern civilization's deep dependencies on the remaining products that all come from the same barrel of oil. Only then can we understand and plan for feasible pathways to reducing oil production and consumption within the confines of a growth-dependent complex adaptive system. How can movements such as Just Stop Oil better reflect the reality of the current oil production system and our economy?    Stay tuned next week when Nate shares 7 potential paths to a less oil-dependent future.   A special thank you to Joris van der Schot, John Rowan, Robert Rapier, and Art Berman for helpful input on this video.   To Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/H-zYjcsLE_E   For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/37-just-stop-oil-part-1-gasoline

On this episode, Nate is joined by “free range biologist” Anne Biklé and “broad-minded geologist” David Montgomery - a married duo who have been educating about the link between soil and human health for nearly a decade. As we continue to strip the land and soil of its life supporting capacity, our food has become less nutritious, even as we’ve received more calories. Has the age of ‘The Green Revolution’ - accredited with preventing millions from famine - led us to a new epidemic of starvation in the form of micronutrients? How do our modern systems degrade the land, leaving us with lifeless dirt even more dependent on fossil inputs? Can we implement better agricultural practices that lead to lively and fertile soils, better health, and a reconnection with the land that feeds us? About Anne Biklé & David R. Montgomery Anne Biklé is a science writer and public speaker drawing on her background in biology and environmental planning to explore humanity’s tangled relationship with nature through the lens of agriculture, soil, and food. She is particularly enthralled with the botanical world and its influence on humanity throughout history. Her writing has appeared in digital and print magazines, newspapers, and her work has been featured in radio and independent documentary films. David R. Montgomery is a MacArthur Fellow and professor of geomorphology at the University of Washington. He is an internationally recognized geologist who studies the effects of geological processes on ecological systems and human societies. He is the author of several textbooks in his field and his work has been featured in documentary films, network and cable news, TV, and radio. Anne and David are married and live in Seattle, WA. In 2023, they published What Your Food Ate: How to Heal Our Land and Reclaim Our Health, which builds on their trilogy of books about soil health, microbiomes, and farming—Dirt: The Erosion of Civilizations, The Hidden Half of Nature, and Growing a Revolution. Social Media & Contact for David and Anne web: www.Dig2Grow.com || twitter: @Dig2Grow || email: Dig2Grow@gmail.com For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/79-anne-bikl-david-montgomery

On this segment of Reality Roundtable, Nate is joined by William Rees, Nora Bateson, and Rex Weyler to discuss the purpose of ecology and what it might look like to have a civilization centered around it. Despite our tendency to think of ourselves as separate from the biosphere, humans are a part of it, just like any other animal. What sets us apart now is our outsized impact on the world around us, as we and our societies take up more space and resources, degrading the ecosystems that support ourselves, our descendants, and other species. How can an understanding of systems and relationships help us rethink how we interact with the planet? Could ecologically literate governments and citizens create wider boundaries across time and space in which decisions are made? What might the parameters be for a civilization centered around ecology, and how can we navigate there through declining energy and resource availability? Most of all, how can we as individuals and communities root ourselves into a deep(er) ecological knowledge and way of being?  About Nora Bateson Nora Bateson is an award-winning filmmaker, writer and educator, as well as President of the International Bateson Institute, based in Sweden. Her work asks the question “How can we  improve our perception of the complexity we live within, so we may improve our interaction with the world?”.  An international lecturer, researcher and writer, Nora wrote, directed and produced the award-winning documentary, An Ecology of Mind, a portrait of her father, Gregory Bateson. Her work brings the fields of biology, cognition, art, anthropology, psychology, and information technology together into a study of the patterns in ecology of living systems. Her book, Small Arcs of Larger Circles, released by Triarchy Press, UK, 2016 is a revolutionary personal approach to the study of systems and complexity. About William Rees William Rees is a population ecologist, ecological economist, Professor Emeritus and former Director of the University of British Columbia’s School of Community and Regional Planning in Vancouver, Canada. He researches the implications of global ecological trends for the longevity of civilization, with special focus on urban (un)sustainability and cultural/cognitive barriers to rational public policy. Prof Rees is best known as the originator and co-developer with Dr Mathis Wackernagel of ‘ecological footprint analysis’ (EFA), a quantitative tool that estimates human demands on ecosystems and the extent to which humanity is in ‘ecological overshoot.’ Dr Rees is a founding member and former President of the Canadian Society for Ecological Economics; a founding Director of the OneEarth Living Initiative; a Fellow of the Post-Carbon Institute and an Associate Fellow of the Great Transition Initiative. About Rex Weyler Rex Weyler is a writer and ecologist. His books include Blood of the Land; the Government and Corporate War Against First Nations, nominated for a Pulitzer Prize; Greenpeace: The Inside Story, a finalist for the BC Book Award and the Shaughnessy-Cohen Award for Political Writing; and The Jesus Sayings, a deconstruction of first century history, a finalist for the BC Book Award.  In the 1970s, Weyler was a cofounder of Greenpeace International and editor of the Greenpeace Chronicles. He served on campaigns to preserve rivers and forests and to stop whaling, sealing, and toxic dumping.  He currently posts the “Deep Green” column at the Greenpeace International website. He lives on Cortes Island in British Columbia, with his wife, artist Lisa Gibbons. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/GE39xfNRRyw For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/rr02-bateson-rees-weyler 

On this steamy Frankly, Nate shares how his broken office air conditioner reminds him of the discomforts and dangers being faced by those living in high heat regions - including the heat dome over the Southern U.S and growing ‘wet bulb temperature’ areas around the world. Air conditioners are a modern luxury not afforded to most humans - and those that do use them are in turn part of a positive feedback loop to stay cooler while consuming more fossil energy. And yet as the climate gets hotter and hotter, climate control may shift from a luxury to a necessity for many people to even survive in parts of Earth’s habitat. Can those of us with access to AC - at least as a first step - become more aware of the energy privileges we have? How will we respond in a future with less access to climate control and increasing periods of extreme heat?   To watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/UWyoPzTpJtA   For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/36-cool-privilege  

On this episode, global systems researcher Iñigo Capellán Pérez joins Nate to discuss net energy analysis, and its use as a tool in analyzing the feasibility of an entire system. While net energy analysis is complex and polarized, some form of it will be necessary to guide society into a resource-constrained future. The energy outlook of a technology changes when scaled up to meet the needs of a larger society.  Many models and EROI analyses that fail to take a system-wide view and only look at a single technology use case, only reflect the partial net energy story. When looking at the huge scale-up needed for ‘solutions’ such as Green Growth and Net Zero Transitions, do the hopes for renewable technologies hold up the lifestyles we’ve come to expect over the last century of fossil surplus? Do our policymakers and leaders have the full picture to make competent decisions? How can we best use these tools to make creative responses to guide us through a Great Simplification? About Iñigo Capellán Pérez: Iñigo is an Industrial Engineer currently doing research with The Group of Energy, Economy and Systems Dynamics (GEEDS) of the University of Valladolid. He holds a Master degree in Electric Energy and Sustainable Development and a PhD in Economics with his dissertation on "Development and Application of Environmental Integrated Assessment Modelling towards Sustainability" at the University of the Basque Country. His research interests focus on the analysis and modeling of the energy-economy-environment systems, the transition to renewable energies in the context of the depletion of fossil fuels and climate mitigation and the technical and social transformations towards sustainability. For Show Notes and More visit:  https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/78-iigo-capelln-prez To watch this video episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/m9VFYTXSwNw

On this very personal Frankly, Nate speaks from the heart about ten things which bring him joy and, despite the accelerating polycrisis, will likely still be available to us even without abundant cheap energy. This message - really - is at the heart of the Great Simplification story.  Distinct from intermittent and shallow hits of dopamine from social media “Likes” or shopping or stock investing - joy is a deep, soul-enriching emotion.  Can we shift from wearing an economic lens which fears financial loss to opening our hearts and minds to what truly brings us joy? Can we learn - today - to appreciate the joy from the natural world around us, communing with other humans and animals, discovering beauty or sharing knowledge, as we travel through the Great Simplification?     For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/35-the-10-things-that-bring-me-joy   Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/GjpL1OoSi6o