Jean-Marc Jancovici: "Our Global Energy Predicament"
Aug 16, 2023
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Nate Hagens discusses the critical importance of energy with Jean-Marc Jancovici. They explore the impact of fossil fuels on human civilization, the role of energy in technological progress, the future of global oil production, the consequences of climate change, and the connection between energy scarcity, retirement, and protests in France. They also discuss the SHIFT Project, a plan to transform the French economy, and ways to connect and collaborate in France on climate change and energy availability.
The reliance on cheap and abundant fossil energy has shaped the Western lifestyle and economies, but losing this supply would have significant consequences on societies and individuals.
Transitioning to a more sustainable future requires a shift towards sobriety, which may be challenging in a democratic society, but plans and strategies should be developed beforehand to address future crises.
To address energy scarcity and the impending global crisis, it is crucial to prioritize collective action by engaging civil society and individuals across sectors to drive meaningful change and influence policy decisions.
Deep dives
The Role of Fossil Fuels in Human Advancement
Fossil fuels have played a crucial role in transforming human society over the past two centuries. The use of fossil fuels has allowed for the replacement of human labor with machines, leading to increased productivity and a rise in living standards. The availability of abundant energy has fueled population growth, increased life expectancy, and facilitated the growth of cities. However, this reliance on fossil fuels has also resulted in environmental challenges, such as increasing greenhouse gas emissions and depletion of non-renewable resources.
The Challenge of Climate Change and Non-Renewable Resources
The main global challenges we face today are climate change and the depletion of non-renewable resources. The burning of fossil fuels has contributed to the greenhouse effect and the changing climate system. Despite technological advancements, it is difficult to decouple economic growth from energy and material consumption. The physical limits and constraints of essential commodities, such as oil and steel, mean that there is no direct correlation between prices and volumes in these sectors. Additionally, the increasing debt and the inflation of assets resulting from quantitative easing can pose long-term challenges to the economy.
The Transition to Sobriety and the Need for Physical System-Based Approaches
Transitioning to a more sustainable future requires a shift towards sobriety, which may be challenging in a democratic society. While poverty may be forced upon us in the future, actively choosing sobriety is unlikely without a crisis or shock. However, it is essential to have plans and strategies in place before such events occur. The development of physical system-based approaches, such as France's "Plan de Transformation de l'Economie" (Plan Tosto-Mation), which focuses on decreasing greenhouse gas emissions by adjusting physical flows in the economy, can provide a roadmap for sustainable change. These approaches consider the need for decreased consumption and production of essential commodities in line with environmental goals.
The need to decrease oil production by half
According to the analysis conducted by the SHIP project, the combined oil production of the top 16 suppliers in Europe, including shale oil, should be cut in half by 2050. This projection is based solely on geological constraints and does not consider above-ground factors such as geopolitics or climate change. While the analysis presents a potential best-case scenario, it does not account for the potentially dire consequences that could arise from a three degrees plus scenario of global warming.
The importance of shifting society and collective action
To address the energy scarcity and impending global crisis, it is crucial to shift society's mindset and prioritize collective action. Rather than relying solely on politicians, the focus should be on engaging the civil society, including individuals in the economic sector, civil servants, academics, and NGOs. By educating oneself about the issues at hand and joining forces with like-minded individuals, there is the potential to drive meaningful change and influence policy decisions. The goal is to build societal resilience and find innovative solutions to confront the challenges ahead.
On this episode, Nate is joined by well-known French educator Jean-Marc Jancovici to discuss the critical importance of energy to modern economies. Together, Nate and Jean-Marc break down the fundamentals of our complex, growth dependent global economic system. How much of the stereotypical Western lifestyle is centered around access to cheap, surplus fossil energy? What would it mean for societies to lose this stable, cheap and abundant supply - and how would the people who have become used to it react? Will a shift in society’s institutions and expectations need to be forced upon us in a time of urgent change or is it possible for nations and societies to anticipate declining energy availability - to actively simplify before we are forced to by circumstances?
About Jean-Marc Jancovici
Jean-Marc Jancovici is a founding partner of Carbone 4, a Paris-based consultancy and data provider specializing in low-carbon transition, biodiversity impacts, and physical risks of climate change (www.carbone4.com). He is the founder and president of The Shift Project, a Paris based think tank advocating for a low-carbon economy (www.theshiftproject.org). Jean-Marc Jancovici is also an associate professor at Mines ParisTech, a member of the French High Council for the Climate, and (co-)author of 8 books and the website jancovici.com on energy and climate change issues. Jean-Marc Jancovici is a graduate from École polytechnique and Télécom ParisTech.
