Global Data Pod

This discussion dives into the evolving landscape of global economic trends and inflation dynamics. The speakers analyze US policy changes expected from the new administration, particularly impacting trade and immigration. They explore mixed signals from global manufacturing and the resilience of inflation, while reflecting on the prospects for growth amidst uncertainties. Insights on China's economic performance and local inflation trends enrich the conversation, emphasizing the careful balance needed in economic forecasting for the upcoming year.

The podcast dives into the optimistic outlook for global manufacturing, particularly driven by Asian economies. Discussion centers on positive retail sales trends in the US and how central banks are adjusting policies amid inflation challenges. Attention is given to the contrasting strategies of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank in navigating these economic waters. The hosts also share light moments reflecting on holiday plans, blending serious economic insights with festive cheer.

In this engaging discussion, Vinicius Moreira, an economist at J.P. Morgan focusing on Brazil, and Tingting Ge, a specialist in the Chinese economy, dive into the complexities of emerging market ties to China. They explore how China's post-pandemic GDP growth slowdown impacts EM commodity exporters. The guests highlight China's strategy of stockpiling commodities while relocating supply chains and caution about the effects of rising U.S. tariffs. The conversation emphasizes the interconnected nature of global trade and the strategic shifts emerging markets may need to adopt in response.

Recent economic data reveals robust global growth, with the U.S. and China leading the charge, while Europe struggles. The discussion delves into labor market dynamics, highlighting low turnover rates in the U.S. and contrasting conditions in Western Europe. Inflation challenges loom as central banks navigate divergent monetary policies. There’s cautious optimism around industrial activity and job growth, alongside predictions for future adjustments in rate cuts and overall economic strategies.

Ravi Balakrishnan and Francis Diamond discuss a deep dive into the growth, inflation, and rates outlook for the Euro area, UK, and Sweden, and various risk scenarios.   This podcast was recorded on 26 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4849003-0,https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4852356-0,  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss their key takeaways from the October CPI reports and the outlook for the coming year. Global core inflation remained sticky at 3.1% both on a three-month annualized and year-ago basis, while headline inflation ticked higher to 2.9%oya. While the sectoral gap between services and goods is finally narrowing there is considerable country variation with respect to the strength of services inflation. The coming trade war is likely to temper global growth while adding to inflation. The timing and magnitude of the coming US policy shifts remain highly uncertain and should add to the variation in inflation outcomes.   This podcast was recorded on 26 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4852504-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4845587-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4773721-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We published our year-ahead outlook this week and discuss the key points in the latest Weekender. Against a backdrop of our high-for-long soft-landing scenario, two key developments are the recent US election and the shift in cycle drivers from global forces to more domestic factors. Recent data on the November flash PMIs underscore growing divergences. Speakers: Joseph Lupton Nora Szentivanyi This podcast was recorded on 22 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Haibin Zhu, joined by Grace Ng and Tingting Ge, will discuss what the red sweep and tariff war 2.0 risk means for China, and implications on Taiwan and Hong Kong. Two major themes affect our 2025 growth outlook, namely China’s domestic policy shift since late September, and the Trump win in the US presidential election. While we think the odds of a 10% across-the-board tariff in 2025 are low, in part for procedural reasons, the probability of a significant tariff hike on China imports has increased significantly. This stands in contrast with our previous assumption of no major change in trade policy in 2025 and has significant implications on the Greater China 2025 macro growth and policy outlook. This podcast was recorded on Nov 22, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4842856-0, and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4773721-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The hosts discuss the potential impacts of a second Trump administration on emerging markets. They highlight vulnerabilities like low diversification and high funding needs, while also noting improvements in fundamentals and FX reserves. Key channels of exposure, including trade, immigration, and funding, are explored. The conversation digs into how global trade dynamics shape economies, the role of remittances in Central America, and the unique factors driving resilience in emerging markets. Insights on coping with economic shocks are also shared, emphasizing future opportunities.

Consumer spending shows resilience, especially in the US, Japan, and Europe, despite inflation concerns. Upcoming PMIs after the US election will be pivotal to gauge economic sentiment. There's a notable divergence in sentiment between the US and Europe, with surprising inflation trends causing central banks to adapt their strategies. Manufacturing is stagnant, yet there's cautious optimism for a production boost. Overall, the discussion highlights the complexities of navigating economic uncertainties amid trade tensions.