Global Data Pod EM Edge: Don’t judge a book by its cover

Nov 20, 2024

The hosts discuss the potential impacts of a second Trump administration on emerging markets. They highlight vulnerabilities like low diversification and high funding needs, while also noting improvements in fundamentals and FX reserves. Key channels of exposure, including trade, immigration, and funding, are explored. The conversation digs into how global trade dynamics shape economies, the role of remittances in Central America, and the unique factors driving resilience in emerging markets. Insights on coping with economic shocks are also shared, emphasizing future opportunities.

Ask episode

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

Intro

00:00 • 4min

Global Trade Dynamics and Economic Impacts

04:18 • 8min

Migration and Remittances in Central America

11:55 • 10min

Economic Landscape in Emerging Markets

21:41 • 11min

Understanding Economic Shocks and Opportunities in Emerging Markets

33:07 • 2min

Katie, Nicolaie and Steven debate exposures across EM Edge to the potential policy shifts of a second Trump administration. EM Edge would seem the most exposed given their low diversification, high funding needs, openness to trade and shallower local capital markets. Yet, starting points are generally more favorable than compared to past global shocks as fundamentals have improved. Reliance on volatile market funding is also less and FX reserves are higher. While Edge economies, as with most global economies, would be exposed, there are relative points of pressure and other economies that could benefit. The podcast debates three channels through which Edge economies could be exposed to policy changes in the US: trade, immigration and funding conditions.

Speakers:
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Steven Palacio, EM, Economics Research

This podcast was recorded on 20 November 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4837413-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4844291-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.