Global Data Pod
Global Data Pod Research Rap: EM-China dependency amid trade wars
Dec 11, 2024
In this engaging discussion, Vinicius Moreira, an economist at J.P. Morgan focusing on Brazil, and Tingting Ge, a specialist in the Chinese economy, dive into the complexities of emerging market ties to China. They explore how China's post-pandemic GDP growth slowdown impacts EM commodity exporters. The guests highlight China's strategy of stockpiling commodities while relocating supply chains and caution about the effects of rising U.S. tariffs. The conversation emphasizes the interconnected nature of global trade and the strategic shifts emerging markets may need to adopt in response.
31:05
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Quick takeaways
- Emerging market commodity exporters are increasingly reliant on China due to its stockpiling and shifting supply chains away from the West.
- The evolution of U.S.-China trade tensions will significantly influence both China's growth and its impact on emerging markets' economies.
Deep dives
Global Growth Outlook Amid Challenges
The update on global growth highlights a resilient performance despite uncertainties, with strong growth reported in the U.S. and an encouraging lift in China. However, potential shifts in U.S. trade policy, particularly the prospect of a renewed trade war with China, could negatively affect growth not only in China but across emerging markets (EM) as well. The forecast suggests that deteriorating business sentiment and postponed capital investment may further hinder growth outside the U.S. Additionally, there's a concern that as the U.S. adopts a more insular approach, it could exacerbate existing growth disparities among regions, particularly impacting emerging markets.
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