Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Weekender: Vibe check on deck
Nov 15, 2024
Consumer spending shows resilience, especially in the US, Japan, and Europe, despite inflation concerns. Upcoming PMIs after the US election will be pivotal to gauge economic sentiment. There's a notable divergence in sentiment between the US and Europe, with surprising inflation trends causing central banks to adapt their strategies. Manufacturing is stagnant, yet there's cautious optimism for a production boost. Overall, the discussion highlights the complexities of navigating economic uncertainties amid trade tensions.
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Resilient Consumer Spending
- The US consumer spending bounced back in the third quarter, exceeding expectations.
- This resilience is observed across developed markets, including Japan and Europe.
Resilient Growth and Inflation
- Recent data reinforces the view of resilient growth and stronger-than-expected inflation.
- This suggests central banks may struggle to lower rates as anticipated.
Divergent Inflation Performance
- Evidence suggests a divergence in inflation performance across countries.
- This aligns with business cycle gaps, showing moderation in some and firmness in others like the US.